Despite high unemployment and low growth, US and European stock markets have increased by more than 20 per cent during the past 12 months, while European bank stocks have increased by 35 per cent. So is the stock market simply a casino unrelated to the "real" economy? Not really.
A popular explanation for the recent stock market rally is that because investors earn low rates of returns on deposits, they will buy stocks to get a higher "yield". This theory does not explain why stock prices of non-dividend paying stocks have also increased significantly. A more reasonable explanation is the fact that during the last year there has been a lot of good news (or more good news than bad news).
The value of a stock is the present value of all future expected cash flows, from now until "infinity". Hence short-term statistics such as GDP growth and unemployment should have a relatively modest influence on stock prices driven by long-term expectations. The return on a stock is per definition equal to the sum of the expected return and the unexpected return. The expected return is equal to the risk-free rate plus a market risk premium. So we always expect stock prices to go up.
Whether the economy is bad or good, stock prices should reflect the state of this economy, and theoretically the expected rate of return should not be affected by growth forecasts. In other words, there is no reason why investing in a "good" company with high growth rates should be better than investing in a "bad" company with low growth rates if both stocks have the same risk.
The explanation for the rise in the stock market must come from a number of events that are related to the "unexpected" component of the return, ie, good news:
1) The decline in credit spreads of government bonds issued by peripheral European Union countries. For example, interest rates on Greek government debt have fallen from 30 per cent to 11 per cent. The collapse of the euro seems much less likely than it was a year ago.
2) European politicians are actually sticking to their austerity plans. They resist the Keynesian sirens calling for more borrowing and government spending to create "growth" by borrowing and investing in negative net present value projects.
3) In the US, the president, Barack Obama, has not been able to increase tax rates on dividends from 15 per cent to 43 per cent, as planned.
4) Long-term interest rates and inflation remain surprisingly low. Although we have seen a recent spike in 10 year Treasury bonds to 2.5 per cent, these rates are still very low by historical standards.
5) Retail sales are increasing, contradicting gloomy forecasts. Perhaps forecasters ignore the fact that many US consumers own stocks and feel wealthier today, which should stimulate consumption. Unfortunately the same logic does not work in European countries where we don't have such a strong equity culture (to wit, the disclosure that almost no one in the French government invests in stocks).
6) Last but not least: a record amount of money spent on share buy-backs by US firms reflecting increased confidence of chief executives that their stocks are not expensive.
Let's hope they are right. If they are wrong, this does not mean that we were in a "bubble": the concept of a bubble is equivalent to "Monday morning quarterbacking" ie using information only available at time t+1 to argue that markets were irrational at time t.
Theo Vermaelen is a professor of finance at Insead. This article is republished courtesy of Insead Knowledge (knowledge.insead.edu).
Greatest of All Time
Starring: Vijay, Sneha, Prashanth, Prabhu Deva, Mohan
Ain Issa camp:
- Established in 2016
- Houses 13,309 people, 2,092 families, 62 per cent children
- Of the adult population, 49 per cent men, 51 per cent women (not including foreigners annexe)
- Most from Deir Ezzor and Raqqa
- 950 foreigners linked to ISIS and their families
- NGO Blumont runs camp management for the UN
- One of the nine official (UN recognised) camps in the region
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Squid Game season two
Director: Hwang Dong-hyuk
Stars: Lee Jung-jae, Wi Ha-joon and Lee Byung-hun
Rating: 4.5/5
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20SAMSUNG%20GALAXY%20S24%20ULTRA
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Test series fixtures
(All matches start at 2pm UAE)
1st Test Lord's, London from Thursday to Monday
2nd Test Nottingham from July 14-18
3rd Test The Oval, London from July 27-31
4th Test Manchester from August 4-8
Name: Brendalle Belaza
From: Crossing Rubber, Philippines
Arrived in the UAE: 2007
Favourite place in Abu Dhabi: NYUAD campus
Favourite photography style: Street photography
Favourite book: Harry Potter
MATCH INFO
Crawley Town 3 (Tsaroulla 50', Nadesan 53', Tunnicliffe 70')
Leeds United 0
The specs
Engine: 3.8-litre, twin-turbo V8
Transmission: seven-speed automatic
Power: 592bhp
Torque: 620Nm
Price: Dh980,000
On sale: now
more from Janine di Giovanni
The specs
Engine: Dual 180kW and 300kW front and rear motors
Power: 480kW
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh359,900 ($98,000)
On sale: Now
A timeline of the Historical Dictionary of the Arabic Language
- 2018: Formal work begins
- November 2021: First 17 volumes launched
- November 2022: Additional 19 volumes released
- October 2023: Another 31 volumes released
- November 2024: All 127 volumes completed
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
INDIA'S%20TOP%20INFLUENCERS
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Company%20Profile
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The five pillars of Islam
3%20Body%20Problem
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Company%20profile
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The Buckingham Murders
Starring: Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ash Tandon, Prabhleen Sandhu
Director: Hansal Mehta
Rating: 4 / 5
Autumn international scores
Saturday, November 24
Italy 3-66 New Zealand
Scotland 14-9 Argentina
England 37-18 Australia
UAE tour of the Netherlands
UAE squad: Rohan Mustafa (captain), Shaiman Anwar, Ghulam Shabber, Mohammed Qasim, Rameez Shahzad, Mohammed Usman, Adnan Mufti, Chirag Suri, Ahmed Raza, Imran Haider, Mohammed Naveed, Amjad Javed, Zahoor Khan, Qadeer Ahmed
Fixtures:
Monday, 1st 50-over match
Wednesday, 2nd 50-over match
Thursday, 3rd 50-over match
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Barcelona v Liverpool, Wednesday, 11pm (UAE).
Second leg
Liverpool v Barcelona, Tuesday, May 7, 11pm
Games on BeIN Sports
How to turn your property into a holiday home
- Ensure decoration and styling – and portal photography – quality is high to achieve maximum rates.
- Research equivalent Airbnb homes in your location to ensure competitiveness.
- Post on all relevant platforms to reach the widest audience; whether you let personally or via an agency know your potential guest profile – aiming for the wrong demographic may leave your property empty.
- Factor in costs when working out if holiday letting is beneficial. The annual DCTM fee runs from Dh370 for a one-bedroom flat to Dh1,200. Tourism tax is Dh10-15 per bedroom, per night.
- Check your management company has a physical office, a valid DTCM licence and is licencing your property and paying tourism taxes. For transparency, regularly view your booking calendar.
Company%20Profile
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Normcore explained
Something of a fashion anomaly, normcore is essentially a celebration of the unremarkable. The term was first popularised by an article in New York magazine in 2014 and has been dubbed “ugly”, “bland’ and "anti-style" by fashion writers. It’s hallmarks are comfort, a lack of pretentiousness and neutrality – it is a trend for those who would rather not stand out from the crowd. For the most part, the style is unisex, favouring loose silhouettes, thrift-shop threads, baseball caps and boyish trainers. It is important to note that normcore is not synonymous with cheapness or low quality; there are high-fashion brands, including Parisian label Vetements, that specialise in this style. Embraced by fashion-forward street-style stars around the globe, it’s uptake in the UAE has been relatively slow.
Results
3pm: Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 (Dirt) 1,000m; Winner: Dhafra, Antonio Fresu (jockey), Eric Lemartinel (trainer)
3.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh40,000 (D) 2,000m; Winner: Al Ajayib, Antonio Fresu, Eric Lemartinel
4pm: Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 (D) 1,700m; Winner: Ashtr, Abdul Aziz Al Balushi, Majed Al Jahouri
4.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh40,000 (D) 1,700m; Winner: Falcon Claws, Szczepan Mazur, Doug Watson
5pm: Sheikh Dr Sultan bin Khalifa Al Nahyan Cup – Prestige Handicap (PA) Dh100,000 (D) 1,700m; Winner: Al Mufham SB, Al Moatasem Al Balushi, Badar Al Hajri
5.30pm: Sharjah Marathon – Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (D) 2,700m; Winner: Asraa Min Al Talqa, Al Moatasem Al Balushi, Helal Al Alawi
Business Insights
- Canada and Mexico are significant energy suppliers to the US, providing the majority of oil and natural gas imports
- The introduction of tariffs could hinder the US's clean energy initiatives by raising input costs for materials like nickel
- US domestic suppliers might benefit from higher prices, but overall oil consumption is expected to decrease due to elevated costs
The biog
Name: Atheja Ali Busaibah
Date of birth: 15 November, 1951
Favourite books: Ihsan Abdel Quddous books, such as “The Sun will Never Set”
Hobbies: Reading and writing poetry
How it works
1) The liquid nanoclay is a mixture of water and clay that aims to convert desert land to fertile ground
2) Instead of water draining straight through the sand, it apparently helps the soil retain water
3) One application is said to last five years
4) The cost of treatment per hectare (2.4 acres) of desert varies from $7,000 to $10,000 per hectare
Results
%3Cp%3E%0D%3Cstrong%3EElite%20men%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E1.%20Amare%20Hailemichael%20Samson%20(ERI)%202%3A07%3A10%0D%3Cbr%3E2.%20Leornard%20Barsoton%20(KEN)%202%3A09%3A37%0D%3Cbr%3E3.%20Ilham%20Ozbilan%20(TUR)%202%3A10%3A16%0D%3Cbr%3E4.%20Gideon%20Chepkonga%20(KEN)%202%3A11%3A17%0D%3Cbr%3E5.%20Isaac%20Timoi%20(KEN)%202%3A11%3A34%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EElite%20women%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E1.%20Brigid%20Kosgei%20(KEN)%202%3A19%3A15%0D%3Cbr%3E2.%20Hawi%20Feysa%20Gejia%20(ETH)%202%3A24%3A03%0D%3Cbr%3E3.%20Sintayehu%20Dessi%20(ETH)%202%3A25%3A36%0D%3Cbr%3E4.%20Aurelia%20Kiptui%20(KEN)%202%3A28%3A59%0D%3Cbr%3E5.%20Emily%20Kipchumba%20(KEN)%202%3A29%3A52%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Pros%20and%20cons%20of%20BNPL
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Bert van Marwijk factfile
Born: May 19 1952
Place of birth: Deventer, Netherlands
Playing position: Midfielder
Teams managed:
1998-2000 Fortuna Sittard
2000-2004 Feyenoord
2004-2006 Borussia Dortmund
2007-2008 Feyenoord
2008-2012 Netherlands
2013-2014 Hamburg
2015-2017 Saudi Arabia
2018 Australia
Major honours (manager):
2001/02 Uefa Cup, Feyenoord
2007/08 KNVB Cup, Feyenoord
World Cup runner-up, Netherlands
Ticket prices
- Golden circle - Dh995
- Floor Standing - Dh495
- Lower Bowl Platinum - Dh95
- Lower Bowl premium - Dh795
- Lower Bowl Plus - Dh695
- Lower Bowl Standard- Dh595
- Upper Bowl Premium - Dh395
- Upper Bowl standard - Dh295
Farasan Boat: 128km Away from Anchorage
Director: Mowaffaq Alobaid
Stars: Abdulaziz Almadhi, Mohammed Al Akkasi, Ali Al Suhaibani
Rating: 4/5
The 10 Questions
- Is there a God?
- How did it all begin?
- What is inside a black hole?
- Can we predict the future?
- Is time travel possible?
- Will we survive on Earth?
- Is there other intelligent life in the universe?
- Should we colonise space?
- Will artificial intelligence outsmart us?
- How do we shape the future?
Brief scores:
Day 1
Toss: India, chose to bat
India (1st innings): 215-2 (89 ov)
Agarwal 76, Pujara 68 not out; Cummins 2-40
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