‘I sell here, sir, what all the world desires to have – power.” So said the British steam engineer and pioneer Matthew Boulton in 1776, on the cusp of the first industrial revolution. Now, is the fourth industrial revolution, proclaimed by futurists, going to transform the energy industry?
The first industrial revolution was made from steam, coal and iron; the second from oil, the internal combustion engine and electricity; and the third from electronics and the internet. The fourth, if it truly emerges, may draw on some or all of 3D printing, robotics, artificial intelligence, biotechnology, nanotechnology, wonder materials such as graphene, the Internet of Things and advanced energy.
The energy industry itself will no doubt be profoundly affected by this revolution. Automated oil and gas platforms are already producing from remote areas. Customised manufacturing can lower the cost of power plants. 3D printing on demand will simplify maintenance, while engineered organisms clean up pollution.
But is the energy business simply going to be a passive beneficiary of the fourth revolution, or will it lead it by creating genuinely new capabilities?
The first two revolutions were themselves driven by energy technology. James Watt’s first improved steam engine was 6 horsepower; within 20 years, he was building ones of 190 horsepower. Steamships, railways, steam-driven machinery and the electrical telegraph, then cars, aeroplanes, electric motors and light bulbs, were not simply improvements on horses, sailing ships and candles. They were a fundamental transformation in human capabilities.
New energy technologies will feature in the fourth revolution. The efficiency and flexibility of energy use will improve with intelligent monitoring and connectivity of devices. Additive manufacturing saves on energy-intensive bulk materials such as steel, while self-driving cars are lighter and cut congestion. Low-cost renewable energy, and perhaps bio-energy through genetic modification, 3D-printed nuclear reactors, fusion power and carbon capture, offer cheaper, cleaner energy.
But these represent incremental advances on the current situation. With technologies largely from the second revolution, enhanced by some modern tweaks such as solar panels and shale production, we already have abundant energy at reasonable costs. The main problem, of course, is the environment. Cleaning up the mess of our earlier industrial revolutions is essential for civilisation’s survival, but it does not offer any new capabilities.
Speaking in Dubai recently, the Adia (and former BP) chief economist Christoph Ruehl pointed to the steady fall in the economy’s energy intensity and its convergence across practically all global regions. Environmentalists go further and forecast substantial drops in total energy consumption over the century as efficiency gains.
But this contains a paradox: if new technologies bring cheap, clean, practically limitless energy, consumption is likely to rise, not fall. Boulton could not have imagined the air-conditioner or the jet, and likewise we cannot know what novel energy demands will appear – household robot servants, human exoskeletons, hyperloops, long-distance commuting in autonomous vehicles, hypersonic plane travel, space holidays. Solar roofs, batteries and electric vehicles offer a new way for individuals to create and sell energy services, even if end uses do not change much.
As the threat of climate change grows, it may seem irresponsible to encourage consumption. But too many people worldwide lack access even to the fruits of the first three industrial revolutions, let alone the fourth. Meeting their needs sustainably is essential for any further progress.
The traditional energy business is poor at funding basic research. It is worried about its long-term future with speculation over “peak demand”. And its mindset has long been that energy consumption is a necessary evil.
Maybe the solution is to explore entirely new industries that could be unleashed if clean energy became 10 times cheaper or 10 times more abundant, as it did in the first industrial revolution. That would give the fourth industrial revolutionaries the power to drive their dreams.
Robin Mills is the chief executive of Qamar Energy and the author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis.
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