GCC economies might be over the worst effects of the oil price crash which began in 2014, said Samy Chaar, the chief economist at the Swiss private bank Lombard Odier.
Still, he said, countries in the region shouldn’t rest on their laurels and must continue to forge ahead with diversifying their economies to make them less reliant on oil even after the price of oil almost doubled from last year’s multi-year low.
The economist said it was unlikely that oil would be shooting back up to the days before the collapse in oil prices, when it averaged US$100 a barrel for several years before crashing to as low as $28 a barrel last year.
“I would say we’ve passed the trough – wherever, Russia, Brazil, 2016 was the trough and I think it was the same for the region,” he said. “It is a change of paradigm, things are not going to be as they were when commodity prices were much higher but it is still going to be an ambitious route ahead, a long painful road to economic prosperity.”
Indeed a painful patch of that road occurred late last week.
Giving back some of the gains made in the past 16 months, the price of Brent crude fell below $50 a barrel last week for the first time since late March. Since then, it has rebounded, rising 0.14 per cent to $50.84 a barrel on Friday.
Mr Chaar said the UAE and Kuwait were among the best positioned Arabian Gulf countries to rise to the challenge of an era of lower oil prices, because of their high cash reserves and low debt. All the countries in the region will, however, need to adapt to the new reality of lower oil prices and begin to implement taxes such as value added tax, he said.
Since the price of oil began its sharp descent in mid-2014, governments in the region have reduced energy subsidies, cut spending and raised debt in international markets to prevent deficits from spiralling.
Saudi Arabia said on Thursday that its first quarter deficit shrunk to 26.2 billion Saudi riyals (Dh25.65bn) amid higher energy prices compared to 91bn riyals in the same period last year.
At the same time, these countries have outlined ambitious plans to transform their oil-reliant economies with measures that include selling off some stakes in major state companies such as Saudi Arabia’s Aramco, the world’s largest oil producer.
Not everyone, however, thinks that the Gulf region is over the worst. The GCC is likely to experience lower economic growth in 2017 versus last year amid lacklustre oil prices and continued cuts in spending on government projects, according to a report last month by the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW) and Oxford Economics.
The authors of the report said that GDP growth was likely to slow to 1.1 per cent this year, the weakest since the global financial crisis of 2008, from 2 per cent in 2016.
Real GDP growth for GCC oil exporters is forecast at 0.9 per cent this year, down from 2 per cent last year and 3.8 per cent the year before, the IMF said in its latest economic forecast.
mkassem@thenational.ae
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Going grey? A stylist's advice
If you’re going to go grey, a great style, well-cared for hair (in a sleek, classy style, like a bob), and a young spirit and attitude go a long way, says Maria Dowling, founder of the Maria Dowling Salon in Dubai.
It’s easier to go grey from a lighter colour, so you may want to do that first. And this is the time to try a shorter style, she advises. Then a stylist can introduce highlights, start lightening up the roots, and let it fade out. Once it’s entirely grey, a purple shampoo will prevent yellowing.
“Get professional help – there’s no other way to go around it,” she says. “And don’t just let it grow out because that looks really bad. Put effort into it: properly condition, straighten, get regular trims, make sure it’s glossy.”
The specs
Engine: 1.4-litre 4-cylinder turbo
Power: 180hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 250Nm at 3,00rpm
Transmission: 5-speed sequential auto
Price: From Dh139,995
On sale: now
PRIMERA LIGA FIXTURES
All times UAE ( 4 GMT)
Saturday
Atletico Madrid v Sevilla (3pm)
Alaves v Real Madrid (6.15pm)
Malaga v Athletic Bilbao (8.30pm)
Girona v Barcelona (10.45pm)
Sunday
Espanyol v Deportivo la Coruna (2pm)
Getafe v Villarreal (6.15pm)
Eibar v Celta Vigo (8.30pm)
Las Palmas v Leganes (8.30pm)
Real Sociedad v Valencia (10.45pm)
Monday
Real Betis v Levante (11.pm)
Europe’s rearming plan
- Suspend strict budget rules to allow member countries to step up defence spending
- Create new "instrument" providing €150 billion of loans to member countries for defence investment
- Use the existing EU budget to direct more funds towards defence-related investment
- Engage the bloc's European Investment Bank to drop limits on lending to defence firms
- Create a savings and investments union to help companies access capital
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, Leon.
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
Thanksgiving meals to try
World Cut Steakhouse, Habtoor Palace Hotel, Dubai. On Thursday evening, head chef Diego Solis will be serving a high-end sounding four-course meal that features chestnut veloute with smoked duck breast, turkey roulade accompanied by winter vegetables and foie gras and pecan pie, cranberry compote and popcorn ice cream.
Jones the Grocer, various locations across the UAE. Jones’s take-home holiday menu delivers on the favourites: whole roast turkeys, an array of accompaniments (duck fat roast potatoes, sausages wrapped in beef bacon, honey-glazed parsnips and carrots) and more, as well as festive food platters, canapes and both apple and pumpkin pies.
Ruth’s Chris Steakhouse, The Address Hotel, Dubai. This New Orleans-style restaurant is keen to take the stress out of entertaining, so until December 25 you can order a full seasonal meal from its Takeaway Turkey Feast menu, which features turkey, homemade gravy and a selection of sides – think green beans with almond flakes, roasted Brussels sprouts, sweet potato casserole and bread stuffing – to pick up and eat at home.
The Mattar Farm Kitchen, Dubai. From now until Christmas, Hattem Mattar and his team will be producing game- changing smoked turkeys that you can enjoy at home over the festive period.
Nolu’s, The Galleria Mall, Maryah Island Abu Dhabi. With much of the menu focused on a California inspired “farm to table” approach (with Afghani influence), it only seems right that Nolu’s will be serving their take on the Thanksgiving spread, with a brunch at the Downtown location from 12pm to 4pm on Friday.
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
On sale: Now
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
APPLE IPAD MINI (A17 PRO)
Display: 21cm Liquid Retina Display, 2266 x 1488, 326ppi, 500 nits
Chip: Apple A17 Pro, 6-core CPU, 5-core GPU, 16-core Neural Engine
Storage: 128/256/512GB
Main camera: 12MP wide, f/1.8, digital zoom up to 5x, Smart HDR 4
Front camera: 12MP ultra-wide, f/2.4, Smart HDR 4, full-HD @ 25/30/60fps
Biometrics: Touch ID, Face ID
Colours: Blue, purple, space grey, starlight
In the box: iPad mini, USB-C cable, 20W USB-C power adapter
Price: From Dh2,099
Fighting with My Family
Director: Stephen Merchant
Stars: Dwayne Johnson, Nick Frost, Lena Headey, Florence Pugh, Thomas Whilley, Tori Ellen Ross, Jack Lowden, Olivia Bernstone, Elroy Powell
Four stars
UAE Tour 2020
Stage 1: The Pointe Palm Jumeirah - Dubai Silicon Oasis, 148km
Stage 2: Hatta - Hatta Dam, 168km
Stage 3: Al Qudra Cycle Track - Jebel Hafeet, 184km
Stage 4: Zabeel Park - Dubai City Walk, 173km
Stage 5: Al Ain - Jebel Hafeet, 162km
Stage 6: Al Ruwais - Al Mirfa, 158km
Stage 7: Al Maryah Island - Abu Dhabi Breakwater, 127km
Dr Afridi's warning signs of digital addiction
Spending an excessive amount of time on the phone.
Neglecting personal, social, or academic responsibilities.
Losing interest in other activities or hobbies that were once enjoyed.
Having withdrawal symptoms like feeling anxious, restless, or upset when the technology is not available.
Experiencing sleep disturbances or changes in sleep patterns.
What are the guidelines?
Under 18 months: Avoid screen time altogether, except for video chatting with family.
Aged 18-24 months: If screens are introduced, it should be high-quality content watched with a caregiver to help the child understand what they are seeing.
Aged 2-5 years: Limit to one-hour per day of high-quality programming, with co-viewing whenever possible.
Aged 6-12 years: Set consistent limits on screen time to ensure it does not interfere with sleep, physical activity, or social interactions.
Teenagers: Encourage a balanced approach – screens should not replace sleep, exercise, or face-to-face socialisation.
Source: American Paediatric Association
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Scoreline
Man Utd 2 Pogba 27', Martial 49'
Everton 1 Sigurdsson 77'
Awar Qalb
Director: Jamal Salem
Starring: Abdulla Zaid, Joma Ali, Neven Madi and Khadija Sleiman
Two stars