Climate change might actually cool down parts of Europe, scientists believe, due to a weakening of the Gulf Stream.
The warm tropical current from North America to Europe is one reason why Britain has milder winters than freezing Russia or Canada.
But the blast of warmth that has come for thousands of years could be weakened by changes in ocean winds, a new study warns.
In an extreme case, the whole system of Atlantic currents could collapse, causing temperatures in Europe to nosedive by 10 to 15°C.
Such an event would severely disrupt weather patterns and agriculture in the British Isles and western Europe.
The warnings emerge in a study by University College London researchers, who found the Gulf Stream was stronger in the past due to higher winds.
“If you see the reverse effect, so a weakening of winds in the future as a result of anthropogenic climate change, then that will likely trigger a weakening of the Gulf Stream,” lead author Jack Wharton said.
That might at least slow the trajectory of global warming, the UCL geographer told The National, or “if the Gulf Stream were to weaken very severely, then you would get much more significant cooling”.
Scientists have observed a decline in wind speeds over recent decades, known as 'global stilling', which could be caused by humans.
One theory is that cities act as speed bumps for the wind. Another is linked to the warming Arctic closing temperature gaps. A drop could affect our ability to generate clean energy from wind turbines.
A further concern is that the melting of Greenland's ice sheet messes with the warm Gulf Stream by diluting it with fresh water.
But the new study “is highlighting that there's an additional sensitivity of the Gulf Stream, and it's the wind-driven component”, Dr Wharton said.
“If winds were to weaken in the future, then the Gulf Stream would also weaken proportionately.”
Although much of Europe is usually cold or temperate, melting Alpine glaciers and extreme summer heatwaves have underlined the threat of climate change.
Europe has already warmed by 2.3°C compared to the pre-industrial age, faster than any other continent, meteorologists said last year.
Temperatures have for thousands of years been kept higher than they otherwise would due to the warm currents originating in the Gulf of Mexico.
That is one reason why Britain, for example, has more temperate weather than countries on the same latitude such as Russia.
According to the study, those currents were even stronger during the last Ice Age, about 20,000 years ago, due to more intense subtropical winds.
Oceanographers know this because Ice Age fossils on the seabed reveal how strong the current must have been back then.
The stream is part of a wider system of currents called the Amoc (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) that researchers say could collapse in an “unlikely but possible future scenario”.
Mark Maslin, a UCL geography professor and co-author of the study, said it was a paradox that a warmer climate could in fact “cool down much of Europe”.
“It’s not always recognised how much ocean currents are responsible for transferring heat around the planet and shaping our climate,” he said.
“Our new research adds to this understanding, and shows that the weakening of the winds which drive the Gulf Stream could reduce the circulation of heat, further affecting the continent.”
The study, Deeper and Stronger North Atlantic Gyre During the Last Glacial Maximum, is published in the journal Nature on Wednesday.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
