Fossil fuel-rich Azerbaijan prepares to host crucial Cop29 climate talks


John Dennehy
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Rows of oil rigs dot the shores of the Caspian Sea; derricks abound across the city and flares from refineries puncture the sky.

This is Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, where in just a few months the world will gather to tackle climate change.

It may seem an unusual place for climate talks but the ex-Soviet republic in the Caucasus says it can be a bridge between disparate regions when it hosts Cop29 this November.

“It is a unique chance for us to step into a higher league,” said Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev, at the Shusha Global Media Forum on Saturday.

“We work with developing countries to build bridges between the Global South and Global North.”

It was in Azerbaijan that the first oil wells were dug and Baku once supplied half of the world’s needs.

The country is known as the “land of fire” thanks to its vast reserves of natural gas that seep to the surface in places and start blazing.

This black gold was so plentiful it rose to the surface with even famed explorer Marco Polo commenting on the oilfields of the Caucasus.

However, signs for state-owned oil company, Socar, and installations commemorating the fossil fuel industry are now being joined by adverts for Cop29.

In about three months, representatives from about 200 countries will meet in Baku to try to address climate change.

Mr Aliyev said he was not a climate specialist and was six months in to “trying to understand the situation”.

“We all understand 1.5ºC plus is a disaster but at the same time, many uncertainties still exist,” said Mr Aliyev, in the three-hour question and answer session. “For me, frankly, it is not yet clear.

“What I realise is there is a big, big, mistrust between developed and developing countries.”

Oil derricks in Baku with the city's stadium, venue for Cop29, in the background. Pawan Singh / The National
Oil derricks in Baku with the city's stadium, venue for Cop29, in the background. Pawan Singh / The National

A country steeped in fossil fuel history

Azerbaijan emerged from the Soviet era to remain unashamedly an oil and gas producer. Today, fossil fuels account for close to 90 per cent of its export revenues and its economy is highly dependent on them.

Mr Aliyev hit out at hypocrisy in the West during the session saying European countries asked him to invest in the sector as they try to find other gas sources than Russia and then say they won’t need gas in a decade.

“We must be crazy to invest billions for something they will not need,” he said. “Then they look into our eyes and say: ‘where is our gas?' So my message is to stop this game. Without fossil fuels, it is not possible to live.”

Murad Sadikhov, Masdar country manager for Azerbaijan, at the Garadagh solar plant on the outskirts of Baku. Pawan Singh / The National
Murad Sadikhov, Masdar country manager for Azerbaijan, at the Garadagh solar plant on the outskirts of Baku. Pawan Singh / The National

Switch to a greener future

Cop28 resulted in a deal to transition away from fossil fuels – burning them is the main driver of climate change – but the UN has repeatedly warned the world remains off track to keep temperatures from rising over the key 1.5ºC threshold.

Azerbaijan has signed up to the Paris Climate Agreement and said it is working on a new climate plan. Socar also joined the oil and gas decarbonisation charter announced at Cop28.

“Azerbaijan has made substantial progress on renewables,” said Mr Aliyev.

A drive out of the city past traditional stone houses and signs for Cop29 is the vast Garadagh solar plant. Developed by the UAE’s Masdar and opened last year, the 230-megawatt plant in the sun-punished hills is the country’s first industrial-scale solar project. It will power about 110,000 homes, Masdar said, and aims to cut emissions by 200,000 tonnes a year.

Rows and rows of shimmering solar panels stretch out as far as the eye can see with the oil rigs of the Caspian Sea in the distance.

“Before I worked for oil and gas,” said Masdar country manager for Azerbaijan, Murad Sadikhov. “They said that, you know, you came from the dark side.”

Mr Sadikhov underlined how the country was a global pioneer in oil production and the government said it also wants to be a pioneer in green energy.

“If the world is changing … Azerbaijan should also be one of the leaders,” he said.

“The air in Baku is much cleaner than it was before. The government is continuously doing these things.”

Finance could dominate climate talks

Baku has a tough task to make Cop29 a success. Cops are typically difficult affairs with talks that run late into the night and force the summit into extra time.

It is believed finance – how to pay for that transition away from fossil fuels – will be prominent. The world needs to agree to a new financial pledge to replace the annual $100 billion a year for developing countries.

“It is the most difficult question I have,” said Cop29 president designate, Mukhtar Babayev on Friday, adding it was not an easy job to bridge gaps given Azerbaijan’s fossil fuel economy.

“It is a process of negotiations [and it is] very difficult now to say what will be decided in November in Baku," he said.

“But all of the countries understand these new goals and need to be more ambitious.”

Baku's plan for Cop29

Baku has also in the past week revealed more about its ambitions for the climate talks. Mr Babayev was speaking after a press conference where it launched a $1bn fund to be capitalised by contributions from the fossil fuel industry and aiming to support climate projects in developing countries.

The Cop29 presidency also launched the “Cop truce appeal” which aims to promote peace, dialogue and reconciliation more broadly.

Azerbaijan said in the past week it invited Armenia to Cop29 amid a stop-start peace process to try to end a decades-long conflict in the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

An Azerbaijan offensive last year retook Karabakh prompting the exodus of more than 100,000 Armenians. Azerbaijan has also said it wants to establish a green zone there but a peace deal has yet to be signed.

“Azerbaijan is now at the end of the Karabakh conflict,” said Hikmet Hajiyev, foreign policy adviser to Azerbaijan’s president.

“Now we turn that page and we are thinking about that peace and we also combine the concept of peace and Cop29.”

It remains to be seen, however, if Armenia will attend or if the countries will meet at Cop29.

Cop29 runs at Baku Stadium in Azerbaijan from November 11 to 22. Pawan Singh / The National
Cop29 runs at Baku Stadium in Azerbaijan from November 11 to 22. Pawan Singh / The National

Tens of thousands expected

Cop29 takes place at Baku Stadium. Inside is restricted for media for now but a large construction effort is under way to transform the venue.

Elnur Soltanov, Cop29 chief executive and deputy minister of energy, said about 50,000 attendees are expected, with the blue zone to be located in the stadium and the green zone mainly outside but details are still being worked out.

“I think Azerbaijan is really good in terms of logistics and hospitality,” said Mr Soltanov.

But he noted that Cops are “not about showing something to somebody”.

“It's about solving and tackling the climate crisis,” he said.

The task ahead in doing so is clear and urgent. Countries agreed in Paris in 2015 to try to keep temperatures from rising 1.5ºC on pre-industrial levels. Scientists say if this is breached, it brings greater risks for the planet.

The record for the world's hottest day since 1940 has been broken twice this week though, according to the European climate change service. Scientists say man-made climate change is also driving extreme weather from floods to drought.

Azerbaijan is not immune. Scientists say the country is warming faster than other regions and that climate change is playing a role in shrinking the crucial Caspian Sea.

Criticism of the event

Baku's marshalling of the event has been criticised by those who believe the fossil fuel lobby has taken over the talks.

Mr Aliyev, however, hit out at a “broad, co-ordinated, media” attack from the West.

“We tried to explain it is not our fault we have oil and gas. You should not judge us by that. You should judge us on how we use the revenue – how we diversify our economy; how we act on unemployment and poverty,” he said.

“We are now less under fire but we understand that the closer to the event, the fire will grow.”

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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  • Nobel died in 1896 but it took until 1901, following a legal battle over his will, before the first prizes were awarded.
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Updated: November 07, 2024, 10:09 AM