Flooding around the world is likely to increase significantly in decades ahead if countries fail to meet official pledges to cut carbon emissions, new research shows.
The latest study led by researchers from the University of Bristol and water risk intelligence firm Fathom looked at forecasts for different types of flooding in various climate change scenarios.
High climate sensitivity and broken promises to reduce carbon emissions could allow the extent of flooding to increase by about half between 2020 and around 2100.
“This research represents the culmination of years of research on our quest to help future-proof communities from the evolving risk of flooding,” lead author Dr Oliver Wing, honorary research fellow at the University of Bristol Cabot Institute for the Environment and chief research officer at Fathom, said.
“The findings underscore the vital importance of all countries keeping their promise to cut carbon emissions.”
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In the best-case lower emissions scenario, where all carbon pledges are fulfilled, the average flood hazard level is forecast to rise by 9 per cent between 2020 and 2100.
The more pessimistic prospect of higher carbon emissions showed flooding could increase 49 per cent by the end of the century.
In the next few decades, the projected increases in flood hazard were more modest.
Between 2020 and 2050, in a low carbon emissions scenario flood risk is anticipated to grow 7 per cent with this doubling to more than 15 per cent in a high carbon emissions model.
“It is important to note that these global averages result from predicted changes in hazard that have large geographical variations,” Dr Wing said.
“Some places will see their flood risk fall, while for others the increases will be many times larger than the global average even under a lower emissions scenario.”
Researchers found that coastal flooding remains a big problem regardless of whether all carbon emissions are met or not.
Even in a low emissions scenario, coastal flooding is forecast to almost double, increasing by 99 per cent by 2100, because of the lagged response of ocean sea level rise to warming.
Flooding caused by rainfall was found to be especially vulnerable to human-induced climate change. Whereas this type of flooding was shown to increase by 6 per cent by 2100 in a low emissions scenario, this increase grows to 44 per cent in a high emissions model.
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The largest future increases in flooding are forecast to be around the world's coastlines and in tropical Africa and Asia, as well as significant changes to arid North Africa.
The likelihood of flood increases was most pronounced along the North Atlantic and Indian Ocean coasts, as well as for south-eastern Asia and the Pacific Islands.
“Undertaking this research project involved subjecting our findings to the most comprehensive benchmarking of global flood modelling yet published,” co-author Professor Paul Bates CBE, professor of hydrology at the University of Bristol Cabot Institute for the Environment and chairman and co-founder of Fathom, said.
“With the highest resolution results produced to date, we hope industries will derive value from our model for a range of additional use cases, such as protecting critical infrastructure from future flooding, helping insurers price premiums and meeting the requirements of climate regulations.”
Countries signed up to pledges to lower carbon emissions at Cop27 and the study found that if these are not all achieved on time and in full, flooding levels look set to increase.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Company name: baraka
Started: July 2020
Founders: Feras Jalbout and Kunal Taneja
Based: Dubai and Bahrain
Sector: FinTech
Initial investment: $150,000
Current staff: 12
Stage: Pre-seed capital raising of $1 million
Investors: Class 5 Global, FJ Labs, IMO Ventures, The Community Fund, VentureSouq, Fox Ventures, Dr Abdulla Elyas (private investment)
Important questions to consider
1. Where on the plane does my pet travel?
There are different types of travel available for pets:
- Manifest cargo
- Excess luggage in the hold
- Excess luggage in the cabin
Each option is safe. The feasibility of each option is based on the size and breed of your pet, the airline they are traveling on and country they are travelling to.
2. What is the difference between my pet traveling as manifest cargo or as excess luggage?
If traveling as manifest cargo, your pet is traveling in the front hold of the plane and can travel with or without you being on the same plane. The cost of your pets travel is based on volumetric weight, in other words, the size of their travel crate.
If traveling as excess luggage, your pet will be in the rear hold of the plane and must be traveling under the ticket of a human passenger. The cost of your pets travel is based on the actual (combined) weight of your pet in their crate.
3. What happens when my pet arrives in the country they are traveling to?
As soon as the flight arrives, your pet will be taken from the plane straight to the airport terminal.
If your pet is traveling as excess luggage, they will taken to the oversized luggage area in the arrival hall. Once you clear passport control, you will be able to collect them at the same time as your normal luggage. As you exit the airport via the ‘something to declare’ customs channel you will be asked to present your pets travel paperwork to the customs official and / or the vet on duty.
If your pet is traveling as manifest cargo, they will be taken to the Animal Reception Centre. There, their documentation will be reviewed by the staff of the ARC to ensure all is in order. At the same time, relevant customs formalities will be completed by staff based at the arriving airport.
4. How long does the travel paperwork and other travel preparations take?
This depends entirely on the location that your pet is traveling to. Your pet relocation compnay will provide you with an accurate timeline of how long the relevant preparations will take and at what point in the process the various steps must be taken.
In some cases they can get your pet ‘travel ready’ in a few days. In others it can be up to six months or more.
5. What vaccinations does my pet need to travel?
Regardless of where your pet is traveling, they will need certain vaccinations. The exact vaccinations they need are entirely dependent on the location they are traveling to. The one vaccination that is mandatory for every country your pet may travel to is a rabies vaccination.
Other vaccinations may also be necessary. These will be advised to you as relevant. In every situation, it is essential to keep your vaccinations current and to not miss a due date, even by one day. To do so could severely hinder your pets travel plans.
Source: Pawsome Pets UAE
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Founders: Sebastian Stefan, Sebastian Morar and Claudia Pacurar
Based: Dubai, UAE
Founded: 2014
Number of employees: 36
Sector: Logistics
Raised: $2.5 million
Investors: DP World, Prime Venture Partners and family offices in Saudi Arabia and the UAE
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Tips for taking the metro
- set out well ahead of time
- make sure you have at least Dh15 on you Nol card, as there could be big queues for top-up machines
- enter the right cabin. The train may be too busy to move between carriages once you're on
- don't carry too much luggage and tuck it under a seat to make room for fellow passengers
