The world is on track to warm by as much as 2.9°C above pre-industrial levels this century unless drastic action is taken to change course, a UN report has warned.
The Emissions Gap Report 2023 underlined how, "like a broken record", the world had once again failed to slash warming emissions, with temperatures hitting new highs this year.
Emissions must fall by 28 per cent to 42 per cent to limit warming to 2°C and 1.5°C through a “relentless” transformation, it said.
Scientists have also warned if warming of this magnitude continues, billions of people could be affected by heat and humidity that severely damages their health.
The report comes days before Cop28 in Dubai, which will add further pressure on leaders to act when it starts on November 30.
All of this is a failure of leadership, a betrayal of the vulnerable and a massive missed opportunity
Antonio Guterres,
UN Secretary General
"The report shows that the emissions gap is more like an emissions canyon," said UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, who also called for leaders to act at Cop28.
"A canyon littered with broken promises, broken lives and broken records. All of this is a failure of leadership, a betrayal of the vulnerable and a massive missed opportunity.
"Renewables have never been cheaper and more accessible."
The report examines the nationally determined contributions (NDCs), or climate action plans, that countries submit to the UN to tackle the crisis. as set out under the 2015 Paris Agreement.
As of September 25, nine countries had submitted new or updated NDCs since Cop27 last year, bringing the total number of updated NDCs to 149.
But the report outlined how the world remains way off track in its pledges to meet the goals of the Paris deal, where countries agreed to "pursue efforts" to limit warming to 1.5°C.
It warned even in the "most optimistic scenario", the chance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C was only “14 per cent”.
"Humanity is breaking all the wrong records when it comes to climate change," said Inger Andersen, executive director of the UN Environment Programme, which issued the report on Monday.
“The world must change track, or we will be saying the same thing next year and the year after and the year after, like a broken record."
The report said the world needed to cut predicted 2030 emissions by 28 per cent to get on track to hit the 2°C goal and 42 per cent for the 1.5°C goal. It said if all conditional NDCs and long-term net-zero pledges were met, limiting the temperature rise to 2°C would be possible.
“However, net-zero pledges are not currently considered credible: none of the G20 countries are reducing emissions at a pace consistent with their net-zero targets,” the UNEP said. "Even in the most optimistic scenario, the likelihood of limiting warming to 1.5°C is only 14 per cent."
The study also comes in the same year temperature records were broken and extreme weather events became more common.
According to the UN, at least 86 days before October this year were recorded with temperatures more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
The hottest September was recorded, with global average temperatures of 1.8°C above pre-industrial levels. Global greenhouse gas emissions also continue to rise.
"There is no person or economy left on the planet untouched by climate change, so we need to stop setting unwanted records on greenhouse gas emissions, global temperature highs and extreme weather," said Ms Andersen.
"We must instead lift the needle out of the same old groove of insufficient ambition and not enough action, and start setting other records: on cutting emissions, on green and just transitions and on climate finance."
Threat to human life
The 1.5°C goal is still seen as crucial in preventing the worst impacts of climate change.
The world has already warmed by more than 1°C, with scientists believing that going beyond the 1.5°C threshold would pose a serious threat to civilisation.
Dr Sultan Al Jaber, Cop28 President-designate and Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology, has called the 1.5°C goal the "North star" that will guide Cop28, and the first assessment of how countries are doing under the Paris deal will be made.
Known as the "global stocktake", it is also expected to try to chart a way out of the crisis and will help inform the next rounds of NDCs expected in 2025 to drive further action.
"Cop28 is a critical moment for addressing this," Tom Evans, a climate expert at the E3G think tank, told The National.
He said negotiations in Dubai could help leaders agree on measures to ensure much faster emissions reductions.
"New global goals to triple renewables and double energy efficiency by 2030, matched with a commitment to phase out all fossil fuels, are critical steps for closing the emissions gap," he said.
The report said some progress had been made since the Paris deal was signed in 2015, when emissions in 2030 projected to increase by 16 per cent. Today, the projected increase is 3 per cent.
It also calls for all countries to focus on the energy transition; and warns new oil, coal and gas "would emit over 3.5 times to the carbon budget available to limit warming to 1.5°C and almost the entire budget available for 2°C”.
It says wealthier countries responsible for more emissions have a larger role to play.
Climate finance, too, needs to be scaled up, as delaying cutting emissions will increase future reliance on the removal of carbon dioxide from methods such as afforestation, reforestation and forest management, and to technology such as direct air carbon capture and storage.
The report, however, warned such technology might not be scaled up in time to achieve the results it hopes to yield.
"Leaders can’t kick the can any further. We’re out of road," said Mr Guterres. "Cop28 must set us up for dramatic climate action – now."
The Secretary General said he was travelling to Chile and Antarctica to "see for myself" the impact of the climate crisis.
"Scorching temperatures mean Antarctic ice is melting ever faster, with deadly consequences for people around the world," he said.
"I will take my experiences to Cop, where I will call for action that matches the scale of the crisis."
Expo City Dubai as Cop28 venue - in pictures
Who was Alfred Nobel?
The Nobel Prize was created by wealthy Swedish chemist and entrepreneur Alfred Nobel.
- In his will he dictated that the bulk of his estate should be used to fund "prizes to those who, during the preceding year, have conferred the greatest benefit to humankind".
- Nobel is best known as the inventor of dynamite, but also wrote poetry and drama and could speak Russian, French, English and German by the age of 17. The five original prize categories reflect the interests closest to his heart.
- Nobel died in 1896 but it took until 1901, following a legal battle over his will, before the first prizes were awarded.
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
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Director: Jon M Chu
Starring: Ariana Grande, Cynthia Erivo, Jonathan Bailey, Jeff Goldblum, Michelle Yeoh, Ethan Slater
Rating: 4/5
