Omicron, the new coronavirus variant detected in southern Africa, has sparked another round of concern that more transmissible and deadly forms of the pathogen may make controlling the pandemic harder.
Named on Friday as a Variant of Concern by the World Health Organisation, it has led to the introduction of travel bans aimed at preventing its spread.
We have to sit tight and see if it’s more virulent and more spreadable
Prof John Oxford
While Omicron, also known as B.1.1.529, has mostly been found in one province of South Africa, it has spread more widely, including to Europe.
Particularly worrying is its large number of mutations: 50 in total, of which more than 30 are on the spike protein, which attaches to human cells.
Almost two years on from when the coronavirus emerged, ideas around mutations and variants have become familiar to the public. Here we look at how variants are identified and named.
Why do variants emerge?
Each time the coronavirus copies its genetic material (ribonucleic acid or RNA), something it has to do to replicate, there is a risk that mistakes or mutations will happen.
Some of these mutations result in the virus incorporating different amino acids (protein building blocks) into the proteins that it makes.
These may alter how the virus behaves, such as influencing, for example, how easily it spreads from person to person or the extent to which it evades protection from vaccines.
Mutations that benefit the virus are likely to become more common and, together with others, may form a suite of changes characteristic of a new variant.
Health authorities across the globe are constantly testing samples of the coronavirus to track genetic changes and identify when such variants have emerged.
How are variants classified?
The World Health Organisation (WHO) has Variants of Concern (VOC), Variants of Interest (VOI), variants under monitoring (VUM) and formerly monitored variants.
The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) uses a similar system, although instead of formerly monitored variants, it has a category of de-escalated variants.
Three things characterise VOC: they are more transmissible, can evade the protection from vaccination, and cause more severe disease or are resistant to treatments.
In May, the WHO introduced a VOC and VOI naming system based on the Greek alphabet to end the “stigmatising and discriminatory” practice of identifying them by the place where they were first identified.
Currently the WHO has five VOC: Alpha (first identified in the UK), Beta (South Africa), Gamma (Brazil), Delta (India) and Omicron (multiple countries).
There are two VOI, Lambda (first identified in Peru) and Mu (Colombia).
Variants in this category have genetic changes that may make them fit the criteria for VOC, and are also spreading widely.
With VUM, there are genetic changes that are potentially concerning and may pose a risk, but more evidence is needed.
When VOC or VOI are found to no longer pose a major public health risk, they may be reclassified as formerly monitored variants, of which there are more than a dozen.
Why is classifying variants useful?
The WHO says the work that it and many other health authorities is doing to monitor how the virus is changing can help spread the message to nations and the public about changes needed to respond to new variants.
Governments may introduce travel bans or other restrictions to prevent the spread of variants as they emerge, as has been seen this week with the Omicron variant. Prof John Oxford, emeritus professor of virology at Queen Mary, University of London, said he was “very impressed” by the molecular diagnostic tools used to monitor how the coronavirus is evolving and spreading.
When he was carrying out work with influenza in the past, he said scientists “would have loved” to have had the tests that are now available.
“It’s head and shoulders above what we were able to do with the flu,” he said, while cautioning against an over-reaction to the latest variant.
“We have to sit tight and see if it’s more virulent and more spreadable. It’s easy to get a society in a flap. We have to be a bit more relaxed until we’re sure.”
It is likely to take several weeks for scientists to gather the data needed to understand fully how concerning the Omicron variant is.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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