Egypt’s wage control is bad for business



Days after a new constitution was drafted, to be voted on by Egyptians in January, a new stimulus package was unveiled by the finance minister, also to come into effect at the start of the new year. The stimulus is the second by the interim authorities since the Islamist president Mohammed Morsi was toppled by the army in July. Announcing the package, the finance minister said the money that had been pledged by Arab Gulf states – a total of $12bn (Dh44bn), mainly by Saudi Arabia and the UAE – would be included in this second stimulus package.

The timing of the package can certainly be read as political, but the Egyptian authorities know they are on a tight timetable. The political changes are rolling: if the draft constitution is agreed in mid-January, the stage will be set for elections later in the year. What is not happening swiftly enough is growth in the economy – and Egypt’s leaders know that it is economics that will decide whether Egyptians back them or not.

The economy in the Arab world’s largest country is parlous, with growth down to 2 per cent three years after the revolution. Yet it is concerning that part of the stimulus package will be used to finance a minimum wage for public sector employees. The public sector accounts for around a third of the total labour market. In 2012, a minimum wage of $100 was set in the public sector; the rise in 2014 will take this to around $174. A minimum wage is enormously popular in the country and has been debated for years – there is considerable public pressure for a minimum wage to be expanded to the private sector.

Yet Egypt can ill-afford such a rise. And the biggest problem facing ordinary Egyptians is inflation, which has been eroding their purchasing power for years. Last month, inflation reached its highest annual rate for four years. The interim government needs measures to stabilise prices – it is that which will bring about a result that will be felt in the pockets of ordinary Egyptians. Indeed, Egypt needs to be moving away from subsidies.

At the same time, a specific focus on encouraging small and micro sized businesses will lead to an increase in employment. That is what the Khalifa Fund’s agreement with Egypt’s Social Fund for Development, signed two weeks ago in Dubai, is designed to do. Encouraging small business, especially in poorer areas of Egypt, can help some of the most marginalised.

Financing from the Gulf can help stimulate Egypt’s economy. But while subsidies might work in small, rich economies in the Gulf, they cannot supply the necessary stimulus in a country like Egypt.

Coal Black Mornings

Brett Anderson

Little Brown Book Group 

COMPANY%20PROFILE
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
 
Started: 2021
 
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
 
Based: Tunisia 
 
Sector: Water technology 
 
Number of staff: 22 
 
Investment raised: $4 million 

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

MATCH INFO

Inter Milan 1 (Martinez 18' pen)

Juventus 2 (Dybala 4', Higuain 80')

Kanguva
Director: Siva
Stars: Suriya, Bobby Deol, Disha Patani, Yogi Babu, Redin Kingsley
Rating: 2/5
 
The biog

Name: Samar Frost

Born: Abu Dhabi

Hobbies: Singing, music and socialising with friends

Favourite singer: Adele

Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
 
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
The specs: Lamborghini Aventador SVJ

Price, base: Dh1,731,672

Engine: 6.5-litre V12

Gearbox: Seven-speed automatic

Power: 770hp @ 8,500rpm

Torque: 720Nm @ 6,750rpm

Fuel economy: 19.6L / 100km

57%20Seconds
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Rusty%20Cundieff%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJosh%20Hutcherson%2C%20Morgan%20Freeman%2C%20Greg%20Germann%2C%20Lovie%20Simone%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2%2F5%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Score

Third Test, Day 2

New Zealand 274
Pakistan 139-3 (61 ov)

Pakistan trail by 135 runs with 7 wickets remaining in the innings

Continental champions

Best Asian Player: Massaki Todokoro (Japan)

Best European Player: Adam Wardzinski (Poland)

Best North & Central American Player: DJ Jackson (United States)

Best African Player: Walter Dos Santos (Angola)

Best Oceanian Player: Lee Ting (Australia)

Best South American Player: Gabriel De Sousa (Brazil)

Best Asian Federation: Saudi Jiu-Jitsu Federation

Europe’s rearming plan
  • Suspend strict budget rules to allow member countries to step up defence spending
  • Create new "instrument" providing €150 billion of loans to member countries for defence investment
  • Use the existing EU budget to direct more funds towards defence-related investment
  • Engage the bloc's European Investment Bank to drop limits on lending to defence firms
  • Create a savings and investments union to help companies access capital
Our legal advisor

Ahmad El Sayed is Senior Associate at Charles Russell Speechlys, a law firm headquartered in London with offices in the UK, Europe, the Middle East and Hong Kong.

Experience: Commercial litigator who has assisted clients with overseas judgments before UAE courts. His specialties are cases related to banking, real estate, shareholder disputes, company liquidations and criminal matters as well as employment related litigation. 

Education: Sagesse University, Beirut, Lebanon, in 2005.

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