Allan Lichtman, an American professor of history who has correctly predicted past US presidential elections, says Vice President Kamala Harris has a path to victory in November, even though President Joe Biden's decision to withdraw from the race will make things significantly more difficult for the Democratic Party.
Mr Biden announced on Sunday that he would no longer seek re-election and endorsed Ms Harris to compete against Republican nominee Donald Trump and seek a return to the White House.
Prof Lichtman uses his 13 keys prediction system to assess presidential races and says the withdrawal of Mr Biden makes things challenging for the Democrats.
“He's out, so they lose the incumbency key, but they still can retain the contest key,” said Prof Lichtman, explaining that if Ms Harris wins two thirds of delegate votes at the Democratic National Convention, she would have the party contest key.
“If the Democrats grow a spine and become smart, they will unite behind Harris as the consensus nominee and preserve the contest key, and forfeit only the single incumbency key,” he said during his YouTube show, just hours after Mr Biden's announcement.
Prof Lichtman has become something of a political science celebrity, with his YouTube channel attracting more than 52,000 subscribers who eagerly await announcements regarding his electoral predictions.
“There are still four shaky keys on which I haven't made my call – third party, social unrest, foreign policy failure and foreign policy success,” he explained, before returning to the importance of a smooth handover at the Democratic Party's convention in Chicago.
An internal party fight would matter “a great deal” to the outcome of the election, he said.
By any objective standard, Ms Harris is the front-runner, but with weeks to go before the convention, there is still plenty of time for speculation to swirl and other candidates to announce a run for the Democratic nomination and seek the support of delegates.
How does Lichtman's 13 keys model work?
The 13 keys to the White House is an index of true or false responses to a set of questions, based on a simple pattern recognition algorithm.
“True” answers favour the re-election of the incumbent, while “false” answers favour the challenger. When six or more of the statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose.
Lichtman's 13 keys to the White House
Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections.
Contest: The candidate is nominated on the first ballot and wins at least two thirds of the delegate votes.
Incumbency: The sitting President is the party candidate.
Third party: A third-party candidate wins at least five per cent of the popular vote.
Short-term economy: The National Bureau of Economic Research has either not declared a recession, or has declared it over before the election.
Long-term economy: Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds the mean growth during the previous two terms.
Policy change: The administration achieves a major policy change during the term comparable to the New Deal, under Franklin Roosevelt, or the first-term revolution under Ronald Reagan.
Social unrest: There is no social unrest during the term that is comparable to the upheavals of the post-civil war Reconstruction or of the 1960s, and is sustained or raises deep concerns about the unravelling of society.
Scandal: There is no broad recognition of a scandal that directly touches on the President.
Foreign or military failure: There is no major failure during the term comparable to Pearl Harbour or the Iran hostage crisis that appears to significantly undermine America's national interests or threaten its standing in the world.
Foreign or military success: There is a major success during the term comparable to the winning of the Second World War or the Camp David Accords that significantly advances America's national interests or its standing in the world.
Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is a national hero comparable to Ulysses Grant or Dwight Eisenhower, or is an inspirational candidate comparable to Mr Roosevelt or Mr Reagan.
Challenger charisma: The challenger party candidate is not a national hero comparable to Mr Grant or Mr Eisenhower and is not an inspirational candidate comparable to Franklin Roosevelt or Ronald Reagan.
– Source: Allan Lichtman, The Thirteen Keys to the Presidency
After Mr Biden’s incoherent debate performance in June prompted calls for him to end his run for re-election, Prof Lichtman warned that such a move would jeopardise the incumbency key in his election prediction system, potentially giving the momentum to Mr Trump.
Prof Lichtman, who rose to international prominence in 2016 when he correctly predicted the election of Mr Trump, had not been shy about criticising those who called for Mr Biden to drop out.
“All of those pundits and journalists and political operatives who say Biden should drop out have absolutely no track record in predicting elections,” he said several weeks ago.
“Yet they claim to know what the Democrats should be doing to win this election, and once again, they’re trapped into looking at the polls. And all those same experts tracking the polls told us Hillary Clinton couldn’t lose.”
Confidence vacuum
Several weeks ago, Prof Lichtman said he felt it would be a strategic mistake for Mr Biden to step aside in the election race, and suggested he should resign as President, allowing Ms Harris to take office.
“Kamala Harris, much younger, no issue about her mental sharpness, would become President, that would check off the incumbency key, and Biden would release all his delegates to support Harris at the convention to avoid an internal party fight, and that would also check off the contest key,” he added.
That scenario has not quite panned out. Mr Biden made it clear that he would see out his term.
He has thrown his support behind his Vice President, which could help to give Mrs Harris momentum before the party convention.
But an uncertain and potentially chaotic event, similar to the 1968 Democratic convention held in Chicago after the assassination of Robert F Kennedy, could create a confidence vacuum and waste campaign resources, potentially giving Mr Trump an easier path to the White House.
Who is Allan Lichtman and what has he predicted?
While he was known in various political science circles for much of his career, Prof Lichtman broke through to the mainstream before the 2016 US presidential election when he accurately predicted Mr Trump would defeat heavily favoured Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.
That prediction went against many polls and analyses at the time.
Shortly after Mr Trump won the race to the White House, he sent Prof Lichtman a signed note. “Professor, congrats, good call,” it said.
Prof Lichtman was also among the first to predict that Mr Trump would be impeached.
As for the 2024 US presidential election, Prof Lichtman has said he is not yet ready to lock in a prediction. “I have not made final prediction,” he said previously on his YouTube channel. “I hope to make it about the same time as I made it in 2020, which was August.”
Prof Lichtman has also been critical of polls, insisting that they hold little predictive value at this stage in the election race.
“That's the same kind of mistake that led the pollsters and pundits to be so dramatically wrong in 2016, to be wrong in 1988 and to be wrong in 2012,” he said.
Rise to prominence
Prof Lichtman made several media appearances after he predicted Mr Trump's election win in 2016. He has since been interviewed by media outlets all over the world, all seeking to gain insights that do not necessarily focus on polling.
He has correctly predicted every US election since 1984, with one discrepancy – the 2000 election between Al Gore, US vice president at the time, and George W Bush, who was governor of Texas.
Prof Lichtman predicted a victory for Mr Gore and, while he won the popular vote, there was controversy over vote tallies in Florida. A Supreme Court decision gave Mr Bush the electoral college victory and the presidency, a controversy that still generates ample debate to this day.
“Gore, based on the actual verdict of the voters, was the winner. What happened in Florida was voter suppression,” Prof Lichtman told The National last year. “And I wasn't the only one to come to that conclusion.”
It is not politics all the time for Prof Lichtman, however. He is also an avid distance runner and has written several books.
In 1981, he also had a successful series of victories on popular US game show, Tic Tac Dough.
“I won more than $100,000 in cash and prizes on that show,” he said. “I was on for four weeks and defeated 20 opponents.
His lengthy run on the show helped to prepare him for his countless TV and media interviews later in his career, he added. “Not only do you have to know a lot, but you can't freeze,” he recalled. “It takes a lot of stamina, they taped five shows in one day, and there were always technical glitches and sometimes the recordings would go late into the night.”
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
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From Zero
Artist: Linkin Park
Label: Warner Records
Number of tracks: 11
Rating: 4/5
Top investing tips for UAE residents in 2021
Build an emergency fund: Make sure you have enough cash to cover six months of expenses as a buffer against unexpected problems before you begin investing, advises Steve Cronin, the founder of DeadSimpleSaving.com.
Think long-term: When you invest, you need to have a long-term mindset, so don’t worry about momentary ups and downs in the stock market.
Invest worldwide: Diversify your investments globally, ideally by way of a global stock index fund.
Is your money tied up: Avoid anything where you cannot get your money back in full within a month at any time without any penalty.
Skip past the promises: “If an investment product is offering more than 10 per cent return per year, it is either extremely risky or a scam,” Mr Cronin says.
Choose plans with low fees: Make sure that any funds you buy do not charge more than 1 per cent in fees, Mr Cronin says. “If you invest by yourself, you can easily stay below this figure.” Managed funds and commissionable investments often come with higher fees.
Be sceptical about recommendations: If someone suggests an investment to you, ask if they stand to gain, advises Mr Cronin. “If they are receiving commission, they are unlikely to recommend an investment that’s best for you.”
Get financially independent: Mr Cronin advises UAE residents to pursue financial independence. Start with a Google search and improve your knowledge via expat investing websites or Facebook groups such as SimplyFI.
World record transfers
1. Kylian Mbappe - to Real Madrid in 2017/18 - €180 million (Dh770.4m - if a deal goes through)
2. Paul Pogba - to Manchester United in 2016/17 - €105m
3. Gareth Bale - to Real Madrid in 2013/14 - €101m
4. Cristiano Ronaldo - to Real Madrid in 2009/10 - €94m
5. Gonzalo Higuain - to Juventus in 2016/17 - €90m
6. Neymar - to Barcelona in 2013/14 - €88.2m
7. Romelu Lukaku - to Manchester United in 2017/18 - €84.7m
8. Luis Suarez - to Barcelona in 2014/15 - €81.72m
9. Angel di Maria - to Manchester United in 2014/15 - €75m
10. James Rodriguez - to Real Madrid in 2014/15 - €75m
Milestones on the road to union
1970
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.
New UK refugee system
- A new “core protection” for refugees moving from permanent to a more basic, temporary protection
- Shortened leave to remain - refugees will receive 30 months instead of five years
- A longer path to settlement with no indefinite settled status until a refugee has spent 20 years in Britain
- To encourage refugees to integrate the government will encourage them to out of the core protection route wherever possible.
- Under core protection there will be no automatic right to family reunion
- Refugees will have a reduced right to public funds
GOLF’S RAHMBO
- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
- Three wins in past 10 starts
- 45 pro starts worldwide: 5 wins, 17 top 5s
- Ranked 551th in world on debut, now No 4 (was No 2 earlier this year)
- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)
RESULT
West Brom 2 Liverpool 2
West Brom: Livermore (79'), Rondón (88' )
Liverpool: Ings (4'), Salah (72')
Who has lived at The Bishops Avenue?
- George Sainsbury of the supermarket dynasty, sugar magnate William Park Lyle and actress Dame Gracie Fields were residents in the 1930s when the street was only known as ‘Millionaires’ Row’.
- Then came the international super rich, including the last king of Greece, Constantine II, the Sultan of Brunei and Indian steel magnate Lakshmi Mittal who was at one point ranked the third richest person in the world.
- Turkish tycoon Halis Torprak sold his mansion for £50m in 2008 after spending just two days there. The House of Saud sold 10 properties on the road in 2013 for almost £80m.
- Other residents have included Iraqi businessman Nemir Kirdar, singer Ariana Grande, holiday camp impresario Sir Billy Butlin, businessman Asil Nadir, Paul McCartney’s former wife Heather Mills.
Hunting park to luxury living
- Land was originally the Bishop of London's hunting park, hence the name
- The road was laid out in the mid 19th Century, meandering through woodland and farmland
- Its earliest houses at the turn of the 20th Century were substantial detached properties with extensive grounds
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Avatar: Fire and Ash
Director: James Cameron
Starring: Sam Worthington, Sigourney Weaver, Zoe Saldana
Rating: 4.5/5
Why are asylum seekers being housed in hotels?
The number of asylum applications in the UK has reached a new record high, driven by those illegally entering the country in small boats crossing the English Channel.
A total of 111,084 people applied for asylum in the UK in the year to June 2025, the highest number for any 12-month period since current records began in 2001.
Asylum seekers and their families can be housed in temporary accommodation while their claim is assessed.
The Home Office provides the accommodation, meaning asylum seekers cannot choose where they live.
When there is not enough housing, the Home Office can move people to hotels or large sites like former military bases.
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
Mercedes-AMG GT 63 S E Performance: the specs
Engine: 4.0-litre twin-turbo V8 plus rear-mounted electric motor
Power: 843hp at N/A rpm
Torque: 1470Nm N/A rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 8.6L/100km
On sale: October to December
Price: From Dh875,000 (estimate)
What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
Pupils in Abu Dhabi are learning the importance of being active, eating well and leading a healthy lifestyle now and throughout adulthood, thanks to a newly launched programme 'Healthy Lifestyle'.
As part of the Healthy Lifestyle programme, specially trained coaches from City Football Schools, along with Healthpoint physicians have visited schools throughout Abu Dhabi to give fun and interactive lessons on working out regularly, making the right food choices, getting enough sleep and staying hydrated, just like their favourite footballers.
Organised by Manchester City FC and Healthpoint, Manchester City FC’s regional healthcare partner and part of Mubadala’s healthcare network, the ‘Healthy Lifestyle’ programme will visit 15 schools, meeting around 1,000 youngsters over the next five months.
Designed to give pupils all the information they need to improve their diet and fitness habits at home, at school and as they grow up, coaches from City Football Schools will work alongside teachers to lead the youngsters through a series of fun, creative and educational classes as well as activities, including playing football and other games.
Dr Mai Ahmed Al Jaber, head of public health at Healthpoint, said: “The programme has different aspects - diet, exercise, sleep and mental well-being. By having a focus on each of those and delivering information in a way that children can absorb easily it can help to address childhood obesity."
Dubai Rugby Sevens
November 30-December 2, at The Sevens, Dubai
Gulf Under 19
Pool A – Abu Dhabi Harlequins, Jumeirah College Tigers, Dubai English Speaking School 1, Gems World Academy
Pool B – British School Al Khubairat, Bahrain Colts, Jumeirah College Lions, Dubai English Speaking School 2
Pool C - Dubai College A, Dubai Sharks, Jumeirah English Speaking School, Al Yasmina
Pool D – Dubai Exiles, Dubai Hurricanes, Al Ain Amblers, Deira International School
Opening Rugby Championship fixtures:Games can be watched on OSN Sports
Saturday: Australia v New Zealand, Sydney, 1pm (UAE)
Sunday: South Africa v Argentina, Port Elizabeth, 11pm (UAE)
RESULT
Bayern Munich 0 AC Milan 4
Milan: Kessie (14'), Cutrone (25', 43'), Calhanoglu (85')
