How can Oman reach its ambitious target for zero-emission cars?

Oman's plan to sell only zero-emission cars by 2050 represents a significant step towards sustainability in the region, and may even serve as a catalyst for other Gulf states to accelerate their net-zero initiatives, analysts have said.

The initiative also presents an opportunity for Oman, one of the smaller economies within the six-member GCC bloc, to tap into its resources and potentially attract overseas investment.

Oman's strategy appears to be the most ambitious in the GCC and Middle East. In comparison, the UAE is aiming for 50 per cent of cars on its roads to be electric vehicles by 2035, while Saudi Arabia aims for EVs to make up 30 per cent of vehicles in the capital Riyadh by 2030.

The Arab world's two largest economies have already made substantial investments in EV infrastructure. The Emirates has a well-developed EV charging network: Dubai alone had about 26,000 EVs on its roads at the end of last year, with more than 600 charging stations across Abu Dhabi and Dubai, according to the latest available data.

Saudi Arabia has also announced major projects in the sector. In October last year, Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund and Saudi Electricity Company launched a new EV infrastructure company, which plans to set up 5,000 fast chargers across the kingdom by 2030. The company plans to establish a presence in more than 1,000 locations across Saudi Arabia.

Meanwhile, the number of EVs in Oman rose to 1,500 in 2024 from 550 last year, with more than 350 charging points planned to be installed by 2027, from more than 200 this year, government data has shown.

“Oman will need to accelerate its infrastructure development and create stronger incentives to stay competitive in this space,” Kerry Watts, an automotive industry veteran and former senior executive at Goodyear, told The National.

Power options

One potential solution for Oman, as well as other Gulf countries, is to explore the utilisation of lithium-ion batteries. These batteries are a crucial component and are currently the most commonly used in the EV industry. However, determining whether to source lithium from overseas or pursue domestic extraction along with overseeing the manufacturing of the final product, can pose substantial challenges.

“That's certainly one approach that they can take, but there's a lot of steps,” Mehdi Ali, a partner at Dubai-based advisory firm Woodcross Capital, told The National. “Oman can decide to go one of two ways: it can go to the very high end, go right at the source, or it can do a mix of the both.”

In June, Saudi Arabia was reported to be pursuing investments in lithium production in Latin America as part of its EV manufacturing drive. Globally, China is the leader in the processing of lithium, cobalt and rare earth elements, with other nations trying to reduce their dependency on a single source for critical minerals.

One advantage Oman has is its proximity to Africa. If the sultanate forges strategic partnerships with key countries in the continent to source materials such as lithium, the move could significantly contribute to its goals, Mr Ali said. “Oman sits in a very, very good place to actually tap into that.”

Meanwhile, hydrogen is likely to play a crucial role in Oman's plans to move towards zero-emissions cars. The sultanate is strategically positioning itself as a leading producer of hydrogen, a move that could have significant implications, particularly for heavy-duty vehicles such as lorries. Using battery-electric power has limitations for this vehicle category.

“Integrating hydrogen infrastructure alongside electric charging networks would give Oman an edge in the energy transition for larger vehicles,” Mr Watts said.

How prepared is Oman?

Oman's plan, announced on Saturday, is part of a strategy unveiled by the government to achieve its energy transition plan in line with recent investments in the clean transport sector. Muscat aims to boost the share of renewable sources in its energy mix to 30 per cent by 2030, 70 per cent by 2040 and 100 per cent by 2050.

The sultanate's 100 per cent goal is at par with some of the world's biggest economies: Canada, the EU, Japan and the UK have all set targets for 100 per cent EVs within new car sales by 2035. The US, home to the world's biggest EV maker, Tesla, said EVs would account for 35 per cent to 56 per cent of new car sales by 2032.

To support and allow the transition to zero-emission cars, Oman could introduce initiatives such as subsidies or tax breaks for businesses and consumers to adopt EVs and hydrogen vehicles, similar to those in the US, Mr Watts said.

Oman last year announced tax exemptions on EVs and their spare parts, provided they meet certain criteria. These included the vehicle having a fully electric motor or hydrogen-powered engine and being registered in the sultanate as an electric car or a zero-emission vehicle.

Incentives for overseas EV makers to set up manufacturing or hydrogen production bases in Oman, coupled with regulatory frameworks that encourage innovation in the automotive and energy sectors, would also attract investment, he said.

“While the vision for zero-emission cars by 2050 is ambitious, Oman’s success will depend on how it navigates these complexities and keeps pace with its GCC neighbours, many of whom are already making significant progress in the zero-carbon transition,” Mr Watts added.

EVs can only be popular – and contribute to decarbonisation – if they are widely available and attractive to buyers, consultancy PwC said in a June report.

Their adoption will be more widespread “if there is a charging infrastructure to support them, if the costs of ownership are competitive and if the energy generation mix contains enough low-emission power so that EVs do not merely end up creating emissions at the energy-generation stage”, it said. “Creating these conditions is a policy challenge for all governments.”

Also, the shift to zero-emission vehicles would heavily rely on whether Oman imports them or develops local manufacturing capabilities – presenting both risks and opportunities for the automotive industry.

“Businesses currently serving the ICE [internal combustion engine] market will face disruption, but there’s a significant opportunity for Oman to build a domestic EV manufacturing sector, or at least become a hub for related industries like battery production, hydrogen technology or EV parts,” Mr Watts said.

Meanwhile, the GCC's overall technological and financial capabilities are expected to influence the speed of its transition to EVs, said Hani Abuagla, a senior market analyst at broker XTB Mena.

“The global energy transition presents both challenges and opportunities for Arab countries, with many adopting domestic energy transition plans to generate new export revenue,” he told The National. “As global energy transitions accelerate, pressure on GCC states to adapt will increase, potentially catalysing faster action across the region.”

Energy implications

The transition to EVs will shift demand from oil-based fuels to electricity, requiring major investment in renewable energy infrastructure, grid upgrades and the development of EV charging infrastructure, Mr Abuagla said.

Oman's focus on green hydrogen production, with a target of 1 million tonnes annually by 2030, is likely to create a new energy industry, he added.

“Overall, these changes represent a fundamental transformation of Oman's energy landscape, aligning with global sustainability trends while leveraging its existing energy expertise and infrastructure. As a result, the country could see strong growth in the energy sector and a boost in its economic output,” Mr Abuagla said.

The transformation of existing infrastructure would be a central challenge: not only will charging networks and hydrogen fuelling stations need to be developed, but this will require a co-ordinated phase-out of petrol and diesel facilities, Mr Watts added.

“Achieving this will depend on a detailed, long-term infrastructure strategy that ensures no disruption to mobility while gradually shifting towards new energy solutions.”

Still, internal combustion engine vehicles could remain on Oman's roads beyond 2050, if they are not proactively phased out.

“A structured plan will be required to gradually remove them from the market. Moreover, phasing out the support infrastructure for ICE vehicles, such as petrol stations and maintenance facilities, will be crucial to fully realise the zero-emissions goal,” Mr Watts said.