As artificial intelligence advances rapidly towards one day potentially surpassing human capabilities, leaders in technology have emphasised the critical need for balanced regulatory measures.
While the potential of AI could bring significant benefits across industries, experts warn that unregulated growth may carry serious risks. Billionaire businessman and Tesla chief executive Elon Musk anticipated that, within the next couple of years, AI could perform any task a human can. He suggested AI could do what all humans can do collectively in about three more years, estimating this level could be reached by about 2029.
Mr Musk, who joined the Future Investment Initiative summit in Riyadh online on Tuesday, aligned with previous assessments by AI pioneer Geoffrey Hinton, noting that while there was a probability that AI developments will be beneficial, there were also chances of adverse outcomes. While AI is “most likely going to be great, there's some chance, which could be, 10 to 20 per cent, that it goes bad,” Mr Musk said during an interview at the FII.
Ultra-intelligent AI, or Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI), is 10,000 times smarter than the human brain and will be available within eight years, said Masayoshi Son, chief executive of SoftBank.
“That's my definition of ASI, and that's coming in 2035,” he said during a fireside chat at the FII summit on Tuesday.
He said ASI would be significantly more impactful than Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), software that is humanlike in intelligence and thought capability.
“AGI definition is the same as a human brain,” said the head of the global investment holding company, which has its headquarters in Tokyo. "ASI’s future capabilities are still unknown and can be the source of great promise or global harm, depending on how it’s managed.”
The anticipated rise of ASI could fundamentally transform economies and societal foundations. This has prompted urgent calls for responsible oversight to ensure the technologies improve human welfare.
“If such a superpower comes and there's no regulation, it could be super dangerous," said Mr Son.
But Mr Musk argued that excessive regulation was stifling growth, particularly in the US, describing it as a "slow strangulation". He warned that, without efforts to reduce regulatory barriers, it could be nearly impossible to undertake large-scale projects in the future, stalling innovation and development.
“The bureaucracy in the US has been growing every year and has particularly grown under the Biden administration," he added.
Existential concerns
Mr Musk identified AI as a significant near-term existential threat, but considered global population decline to be an even greater concern over the longer term. He explained that, if current low birth rates continue, countries including South Korea could lose up to two thirds of their populations within a few generations, with Europe's potentially dropping by half.
He stressed that maintaining or increasing birth rates should be a critical priority for governments worldwide. “I think AI is a significant existential threat and something we should be paying close attention to," Mr Musk said. "It's probably the most significant near-term threat … but longer term than that is the global population collapse. Birth rates have been collapsing pretty much worldwide.
“If that [population decline] continues, you would see many countries become 5 per cent of their current size or less within three generations.”
In the past, Mr Musk, as well as AI researchers Nick Bostrom and Stephen Hawking, have highlighted concerns about highly intelligent AI systems making decisions that conflict with human welfare, or that act autonomously in ways that surpass human control.
Mr Musk also emphasised the significant energy demands required for digital intelligence and electric transport, predicting that solar energy will dominate future energy sources.
Value of the future
Mr Son discussed the perceived hype of an AI bubble, exemplified by semiconductor chip maker Nvidia’s third-quarter forecast in August underwhelming investors.
The US company said it expected revenue of $32.5 billion in the fourth quarter, plus or minus two per cent. Despite being above the average estimation of $32.5 billion next quarter, it did not meet the high expectations of investors, who expected a number closer to the $37.9 billion projection.
Looking at the current returns of the AI industry neglects the greater picture, which is more important, he said. “I think Nvidia is undervalued, because the future is much bigger," he added.
"The cumulative capex [capital expenditure] is $9 trillion," he said, adding that estimates will make up only about 5 per cent of GDP 10 years from now. "It's too much investment for many people's views. I say it's still a very reasonable capex," he said, given that it is expected to yield about $4 trillion in net income per year, according to his estimates.
"So $9 trillion is not too big, maybe too small," he added.
Advice for AI leaders in Middle East
Mr Musk recommended that nations establish their own AI clusters, comparing them to essential infrastructure such as electricity grids. He anticipated a future where every country will have AI compute clusters as standard infrastructure.
He predicted that by 2040, humanoid robots could outnumber humans, suggesting a future workforce would be largely composed of robotic helpers. He mentioned Optimus robots, with price points likely to become accessible as production increases.
Mr Musk, founder of SpaceX, also shared plans for uncrewed Starship missions to Mars within two years, with aims to carry out human missions two years later. He expressed frustration over regulatory delays, which he views as an impediment to ambitious space projects, including the colonisation of Mars.
What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
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SERIES INFO
Afghanistan v Zimbabwe, Abu Dhabi Sunshine Series
All matches at the Zayed Cricket Stadium, Abu Dhabi
Test series
1st Test: Zimbabwe beat Afghanistan by 10 wickets
2nd Test: Wednesday, 10 March – Sunday, 14 March
Play starts at 9.30am
T20 series
1st T20I: Wednesday, 17 March
2nd T20I: Friday, 19 March
3rd T20I: Saturday, 20 March
TV
Supporters in the UAE can watch the matches on the Rabbithole channel on YouTube
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
Sunday's Super Four matches
Dubai, 3.30pm
India v Pakistan
Abu Dhabi, 3.30pm
Bangladesh v Afghanistan
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Pakistan T20 series squad
Sarfraz Ahmed (captain), Fakhar Zaman, Ahmed Shahzad, Babar Azam, Shoaib Malik, Mohammed Hafeez, Imad Wasim, Shadab Khan, Mohammed Nawaz, Faheem Ashraf, Hasan Ali, Amir Yamin, Mohammed Amir (subject to fitness clearance), Rumman Raees, Usman Shinwari, Umar Amin
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
Engine: 3.6 V6
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Power: 295bhp
Torque: 353Nm
Price: Dh155,000
On sale: now
Kamindu Mendis bio
Full name: Pasqual Handi Kamindu Dilanka Mendis
Born: September 30, 1998
Age: 20 years and 26 days
Nationality: Sri Lankan
Major teams Sri Lanka's Under 19 team
Batting style: Left-hander
Bowling style: Right-arm off-spin and slow left-arm orthodox (that's right!)
the pledge
I pledge to uphold the duty of tolerance
I pledge to take a first stand against hate and injustice
I pledge to respect and accept people whose abilities, beliefs and culture are different from my own
I pledge to wish for others what I wish for myself
I pledge to live in harmony with my community
I pledge to always be open to dialogue and forgiveness
I pledge to do my part to create peace for all
I pledge to exercise benevolence and choose kindness in all my dealings with my community
I pledge to always stand up for these values: Zayed's values for tolerance and human fraternity
