Donald Trump once loathed cryptocurrencies. Now, his son Eric Trump guarantees that the returning US president will "fight like hell" to defend them.
The president-elect, however, is notorious for his impulsive decisions. Which begs the question, what if he decides to make another U-turn and withdraw his support for cryptocurrencies?
Top executives of some of the world's largest cryptocurrency companies and analysts believe this is a remote possibility. Such a scenario will have varying outcomes, but Bitcoin, on its own, could come out unscathed – possibly even stronger, they told The National at the Bitcoin Mena conference in Abu Dhabi this week.
In too deep?
In his usual dramatic delivery style that has endeared him to his support base, Mr Trump touted cryptocurrencies on the campaign trail, promising to all but mainstream the innovation, which in turn would allow people to profit.
The promises he made may be too far-reaching for him to abandon, said Khurram Shroff, chief executive of Canada-based iMining Technologies.
"I don't think it can happen [him backing out]. I think he's going to create a lot of people that don't necessarily agree with him and it would be a big public relations nightmare for him," added Mr Shroff, who is known as the "Arab crypto whale".
David Bailey, chief executive of BTC, the parent company of Bitcoin Magazine and The Bitcoin Conference, was more certain, saying: "That's not going to happen."
"That's like asking if Mr Trump would reverse course on his America First policy," he added, noting that the coming president "respects Bitcoin because of its success" – a typical embodiment of the businessman in him.
A price to pay
Bitcoin, the world's first and largest cryptocurrency, soared past the $100,000-mark last week, leaping 40 per cent in the two weeks after Mr Trump won the US elections, as the market prepares for his second presidency's anticipated pro-crypto stance.
It was trading under the $98,000 mark as of Tuesday, now up by nearly half since the November 5 polls, leading a crypto sector whose market capitalisation is now at more than $3.46 trillion, data from CoinMarketCap shows.
Negative news typically hits the value of assets, and Bitcoin having to deal with a hypothetical Trump U-turn would be no different. But some experts see reasons why crypto will withstand headwinds.
First, if for example Mr Trump enacts a law that bars public companies from buying Bitcoin, there might "be lawsuits and lots of other problems [that would] have a massive effect", Mr Khurram said.
Inversely, the widening adoption of cryptocurrencies in more jurisdictions should act as a fallback should the US go "rogue", said Philip Karageorgevitch, the hereditary prince of Serbia and an early crypto adopter.
"Maybe Bitcoin's price might drop, but just a little bit," he said.
That minimal effect is reflected in the fact that regulations on Bitcoin, and cryptos overall, are uneven at best, non-existent at worst. That gives crypto owners the opportunity to take their assets to jurisdictions that enjoy pro-crypto rules.
"There will be other jurisdictions that will sweep up the mess and use it to their advantage. The next country that adopts Bitcoin, from a global strategical, geopolitical and economical standpoint, will be a very big winner," Mr Karageorgevitch said.
There are more than 560 million people who own cryptocurrencies globally as of 2024, which is nearly 7 per cent of the world's population, data from Singapore-based crypto payments company Triple A shows.
The UAE leads in adoption, with more than a quarter of its population estimated to own digital assets, the study said.
This means cryptocurrencies are, now a global asset class that cannot be ignored, which demonstrates their adoption potential to grow further, said Yoni Assia, co-founder and chief executive of trading platform eToro.
"Cryptos are trading in most countries around the world. I think the course of adoption on digital assets is in one direction and we hope to see regulators and governments across the globe and embrace it and continue to support it," he added.
This gives less incentive for governments to minimise or drop its support for it, given the economic potential it brings and especially considering that it is a building block of the future of finance.
Team titans
Mr Trump has all the reasons to protect the cryptocurrency base that helped carry him back to the White House. Apart from two of his closest crypto lieutenants – vice president-elect J D Vance and the world's wealthiest person Elon Musk – he has selected a team comprising other crypto enthusiasts, including Paul Atkins as nominee for head of the powerful Securities and Exchange Commission.
"The US is entering a new world: Mr Trump recently appointed a range of FinTech and crypto-fluent leaders" that would streamline his crypto agenda, Sam Blatteis, founder and chief executive of Dubai-based government relations firm The Mena Catalysts, told The National on the sidelines of Abu Dhabi Finance Week.
Mr Trump's Project 2025 Mandate for Leadership agenda highlights his position on digital assets.
"Both the SEC and the CFTC [Commodity Futures Trading Commission] have been irresponsible actors in the digital asset area. They have had more than a decade to promulgate rules governing digital assets, yet the SEC has utterly failed to do so, and the CFTC has provided only minimal guidance. Instead, both agencies have chosen regulation by enforcement – and have done it poorly," it stated.
In any case, no matter what happens in politics, be it in America or elsewhere, Bitcoin is expected to continue its success, despite the expected wild price swings and being able to solidify its standing and proving it is able to come back from downturns, going higher each time.
"If [Mr Trump] does a 180, it'll be very stupid, but Bitcoin carries on," Mr Karageorgevitch said.
Mr Bailey agreed: "Bitcoin will continue to be successful no matter what happens in the political world."
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
New UK refugee system
- A new “core protection” for refugees moving from permanent to a more basic, temporary protection
- Shortened leave to remain - refugees will receive 30 months instead of five years
- A longer path to settlement with no indefinite settled status until a refugee has spent 20 years in Britain
- To encourage refugees to integrate the government will encourage them to out of the core protection route wherever possible.
- Under core protection there will be no automatic right to family reunion
- Refugees will have a reduced right to public funds
Coffee: black death or elixir of life?
It is among the greatest health debates of our time; splashed across newspapers with contradicting headlines - is coffee good for you or not?
Depending on what you read, it is either a cancer-causing, sleep-depriving, stomach ulcer-inducing black death or the secret to long life, cutting the chance of stroke, diabetes and cancer.
The latest research - a study of 8,412 people across the UK who each underwent an MRI heart scan - is intended to put to bed (caffeine allowing) conflicting reports of the pros and cons of consumption.
The study, funded by the British Heart Foundation, contradicted previous findings that it stiffens arteries, putting pressure on the heart and increasing the likelihood of a heart attack or stroke, leading to warnings to cut down.
Numerous studies have recognised the benefits of coffee in cutting oral and esophageal cancer, the risk of a stroke and cirrhosis of the liver.
The benefits are often linked to biologically active compounds including caffeine, flavonoids, lignans, and other polyphenols, which benefit the body. These and othetr coffee compounds regulate genes involved in DNA repair, have anti-inflammatory properties and are associated with lower risk of insulin resistance, which is linked to type-2 diabetes.
But as doctors warn, too much of anything is inadvisable. The British Heart Foundation found the heaviest coffee drinkers in the study were most likely to be men who smoked and drank alcohol regularly.
Excessive amounts of coffee also unsettle the stomach causing or contributing to stomach ulcers. It also stains the teeth over time, hampers absorption of minerals and vitamins like zinc and iron.
It also raises blood pressure, which is largely problematic for people with existing conditions.
So the heaviest drinkers of the black stuff - some in the study had up to 25 cups per day - may want to rein it in.
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Should late investors consider cryptocurrencies?
Wealth managers recommend late investors to have a balanced portfolio that typically includes traditional assets such as cash, government and corporate bonds, equities, commodities and commercial property.
They do not usually recommend investing in Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies due to the risk and volatility associated with them.
“It has produced eye-watering returns for some, whereas others have lost substantially as this has all depended purely on timing and when the buy-in was. If someone still has about 20 to 25 years until retirement, there isn’t any need to take such risks,” Rupert Connor of Abacus Financial Consultant says.
He adds that if a person is interested in owning a business or growing a property portfolio to increase their retirement income, this can be encouraged provided they keep in mind the overall risk profile of these assets.
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- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
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- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
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- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Who is Mohammed Al Halbousi?
The new speaker of Iraq’s parliament Mohammed Al Halbousi is the youngest person ever to serve in the role.
The 37-year-old was born in Al Garmah in Anbar and studied civil engineering in Baghdad before going into business. His development company Al Hadeed undertook reconstruction contracts rebuilding parts of Fallujah’s infrastructure.
He entered parliament in 2014 and served as a member of the human rights and finance committees until 2017. In August last year he was appointed governor of Anbar, a role in which he has struggled to secure funding to provide services in the war-damaged province and to secure the withdrawal of Shia militias. He relinquished the post when he was sworn in as a member of parliament on September 3.
He is a member of the Al Hal Sunni-based political party and the Sunni-led Coalition of Iraqi Forces, which is Iraq’s largest Sunni alliance with 37 seats from the May 12 election.
He maintains good relations with former Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki’s State of Law Coaliton, Hadi Al Amiri’s Badr Organisation and Iranian officials.
The biog
Name: Gul Raziq
From: Charsadda, Pakistan
Family: Wife and six children
Favourite holes at Al Ghazal: 15 and 8
Golf Handicap: 6
Childhood sport: cricket
Keep it fun and engaging
Stuart Ritchie, director of wealth advice at AES International, says children cannot learn something overnight, so it helps to have a fun routine that keeps them engaged and interested.
“I explain to my daughter that the money I draw from an ATM or the money on my bank card doesn’t just magically appear – it’s money I have earned from my job. I show her how this works by giving her little chores around the house so she can earn pocket money,” says Mr Ritchie.
His daughter is allowed to spend half of her pocket money, while the other half goes into a bank account. When this money hits a certain milestone, Mr Ritchie rewards his daughter with a small lump sum.
He also recommends books that teach the importance of money management for children, such as The Squirrel Manifesto by Ric Edelman and Jean Edelman.
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Info
What: 11th edition of the Mubadala World Tennis Championship
When: December 27-29, 2018
Confirmed: men: Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Kevin Anderson, Dominic Thiem, Hyeon Chung, Karen Khachanov; women: Venus Williams
Tickets: www.ticketmaster.ae, Virgin megastores or call 800 86 823
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The biog:
Languages: Arabic, Farsi, Hindi, basic Russian
Favourite food: Pizza
Best food on the road: rice
Favourite colour: silver
Favourite bike: Gold Wing, Honda
Favourite biking destination: Canada
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Bio:
Favourite Quote: Prophet Mohammad's quotes There is reward for kindness to every living thing and A good man treats women with honour
Favourite Hobby: Serving poor people
Favourite Book: The Alchemist by Paulo Coelho
Favourite food: Fish and vegetables
Favourite place to visit: London
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Fuel economy, combined: 12.9L / 100km
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
