How Donald Trump will affect AI development

Artificial intelligence could prove to be the most important invention since movable type or the light bulb, and president-elect Donald Trump will soon be responsible for its AI regulation and development, making decisions that could be felt for generations.

In short, many expect less regulatory AI scrutiny. Details are few and far between, but there have been some not-so-subtle hints in Mr Trump's AI approach.

What we know for certain is that the new Trump administration's plans to approach artificial intelligence largely exist in the platitudes of his campaign for the White House, and they are mostly seen as being a reaction against President Joe Biden's approach.

Mr Biden made headlines last year when he announced an executive order “on the safe, secure, and trustworthy development” on artificial intelligence. It sought to achieve a balancing act in the hearts and minds of the public as awareness and concern about AI began to reach a crescendo.

Mr Biden insisted his administration would try “to ensure that America leads the way in seizing the promise and managing the risks of artificial intelligence”.

Those AI risks include labour market disruption, intellectual property theft, potential proliferation of misinformation, and national security concerns. The 2024 Republican Party platform, much of it influenced by the Trump campaign, did not mince words about Mr Biden's AI strategy.

“We will repeal Joe Biden's dangerous executive order that hinders AI innovation, and imposes radical left-wing ideas on the development of this technology,” it read. “In its place, Republicans support AI development rooted in free speech and human flourishing.”

Yet Mr Biden's executive order was hardly the first such edict. During his first term in the White House, Mr Trump issued an executive order on AI to “maintain American leadership” with regard to the technology.

It did not shy away from addressing safety concerns, with mentions of maintaining security, privacy and technical standards.

Yet some analysts and technologists say it appears that Mr Trump thought Mr Biden was too cautious with AI, and that caution hindered development, with other countries also racing to take a leading role with the technology.

“I expect a turn from scepticism as to how this [AI] might affect society and a move more toward optimism and a necessity of keeping the lead in this technology compared to China,” said Neil Chilson, head of AI policy at The Abundance Institute and former FTC chief technologist during Mr Trump's first term.

Mr Chilson made the comments during a panel discussion last week at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies' International AI Policy Outlook conference. He said he expects president-elect Mr Trump to replace Mr Biden's executive order.

“The AI community is largely a permission-less space. They can build products, they can bring them to market, they can test them and there isn’t a big approval process that might slow them down,” he said, referring to what many expect to be Mr Trump's move away from AI regulation.

“I think the number one objective is to keep the engine going.”

Mr Chilson also said he expects that under Mr Trump, the US may be more reticent to take an active regulatory role on the global stage.

“You won’t see big international agreements that will tie American companies down, I don’t think that will happen from this administration,” he said.

Trump, AI and China

As a candidate, Mr Trump made no secret about his plans to use tariffs to gain leverage against China. Regardless of whether Mr Trump follows through, Mr Chilson said he expects the race to maintain an AI lead against China will be a major factor in how the Trump administration operates. Tariffs and regulation, he said, would only go so far.

“We don’t beat China by adopting a China-like approach to the technology because the US approach has been really successful so far, so we need to lean into what we’re good at, and that's to developing new things and not get in our own way,” he said, advocating a looser approach to AI development.

China has been quick to close the AI development gap, in some cases moving faster than the US.

According to the World Intellectual Property Organisation, inventors and developers in China are leading the world in filing AI patents.

Between 2014 and 2023, 38,210 inventions involving generative AI were filed in the country, six times more than second-placed US.

Kara Frederick, director of the tech policy centre for The Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank, said that under Mr Trump, the US will portray AI in a more optimistic light, and in turn, be able to inspire and compete against China.

“We’re trying to engender an idea of these technologies as affirmative, positive, as something that’s going to work for everyday Americans, something that’s going to work for western values,” she told attendees at the CSIS event.

Ms Frederick said that while she believes Mr Trump to give US technology companies more freedom developing AI tools, she also foresees the new Trump administration applying pressure to keep their technology in the US, and potentially avoid working closely with Chinese entities.

“US Big Tech companies are going to have to pick a flag,” she said. “It should be the stars and bars and not China. I do think the Trump administration will wake a lot of these companies up to that.”

She also said that Mr Trump would be likely to try to bolster existing US technology partnerships in Middle Eastern countries like the UAE.

“I think as long as there’s healthy realism injected into potential partnerships, they could be lucrative, and they could potentially create a bulwark against an ascendant China.”

Expect AI regulatory surprises

Though the Trump campaign's rhetoric often promised to free companies from regulatory burdens, Mr Trump has also been known to occasionally show an abundance of caution.

Most recently on his Truth Social platform, he announced his opposition to the idea of automation on US docks.

“The amount of money saved is nowhere near the distress, hurt, and harm it causes for American workers,” he wrote.

Ms Frederick said that although Mr Trump will likely be less cautious with AI than his predecessor, she does not expect a free-for-all, and warned against those who push for unfettered development.

“Guardrails matter,” she said, saying that the US should be open to embracing AI international standards bodies. “I think we need some constraints.”