The UK's National Health Service is set to test a new artificial intelligence model that is designed to predict a patient’s risk of disease and early death.
The technology uses the readings of a common and easily available heart test to alert doctors to patients who may benefit from further tests or treatment. The programme will be launched next year and will be used across the NHS within five years.
The AI-ECG risk estimation, or Aire, was developed to assess the results of electrocardiogram (ECG) tests, which record the electrical activity of the heart and are given to patients suspected of having heart problems.
It then uses these recordings to detect problems with the structure of the heart that doctors would not be able to see.
The technology will be tested at Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust and Chelsea and Westminster Hospital NHS Foundation Trust from the middle of 2025, with other hospital sites to be confirmed.
“There are three or four different studies that are going to run across hospitals from the middle of next year,” Dr Fu Siong Ng, a reader in cardiac electrophysiology at Imperial College London and consultant cardiologist at Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, said.
“They are broadly to test that these models are accurate in diagnoses. So, people who would already have an ECG at the hospital, we would test that these models are accurate in picking up certain diagnoses.
“Then, the next layer, once that’s been shown, we can intervene to show that we can change the trajectory of the patients.”
Foods that are good for heart health – in pictures
It is understood several hundred patients will be recruited for the first trial, with numbers then increased for following studies.
“The vision is every ECG that will be done in hospital will be put through the model,” Dr Ng added.
“So, anyone who has an ECG anywhere in the NHS in 10 years’ time, or five years’ time, would be put through the models and the clinicians will be informed, not just about what the diagnosis is, but a prediction of a whole range of health risks, which means that we can then intervene early and prevent disease.
“If, for example, it says you’re at high risk of a specific heart rhythm problem, you could be more aggressive in preventive treatment to stop it from happening. There are some linked to weight, so you can put those patients through weight loss programmes.
“You might even think about earlier medical treatments to prevent things from progressing, but that will be the subject of the clinical studies that we plan to do.”
Dr Arunashis Sau, a British Heart Foundation (BHF) clinical research fellow at Imperial College London’s National Heart and Lung Institute and cardiology registrar at Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, said the aim of the Aire is not to develop something to replace doctors, but to create something “superhuman”.
“The goal here is to try to use the ECG as a way to identify people that are at higher risk, who will then maybe benefit from other tests that could tell us more about what’s going on,” he said.
“ECG is a very common and very cheap test, but that could then be used to guide more detailed testing that could then change how we manage patients and potentially reduce the risk of anything bad happening.
“One key distinction is that the goal here was to do something that was superhuman – so not replace or speed up something that a doctor could do, but to do something that a doctor cannot do from looking at heart tracing.”
Research published in Lancet Digital Health found Aire was able to correctly identify a patient’s risk of death in the 10 years following the ECG, from high to low, in 78 per cent of cases.
For the study, the team trained Aire using a data set of 1.16 million ECG test results from 189,539 patients.
The platform could also predict heart failure in 79 per cent of cases, serious heart rhythm problems in 76 per cent of cases, and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease – where the arteries narrow, making blood flow difficult – in 70 per cent of cases.
“We know that not only doctors, but patients, need to trust AI. And that’s a big part of the work that we did here,” Dr Sau said.
“What we found is that AI could pick up things to do with the patient’s heart structure and function, and even things as deep as genetic information were being picked up that the AI could be using in combination to find out that these people might be at higher risk, and these are things that are not apparent to human clinicians.”
FIRST TEST SCORES
England 458
South Africa 361 & 119 (36.4 overs)
England won by 211 runs and lead series 1-0
Player of the match: Moeen Ali (England)
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
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What vitamins do we know are beneficial for living in the UAE
Vitamin D: Highly relevant in the UAE due to limited sun exposure; supports bone health, immunity and mood.
Vitamin B12: Important for nerve health and energy production, especially for vegetarians, vegans and individuals with absorption issues.
Iron: Useful only when deficiency or anaemia is confirmed; helps reduce fatigue and support immunity.
Omega-3 (EPA/DHA): Supports heart health and reduces inflammation, especially for those who consume little fish.
How to avoid crypto fraud
- Use unique usernames and passwords while enabling multi-factor authentication.
- Use an offline private key, a physical device that requires manual activation, whenever you access your wallet.
- Avoid suspicious social media ads promoting fraudulent schemes.
- Only invest in crypto projects that you fully understand.
- Critically assess whether a project’s promises or returns seem too good to be true.
- Only use reputable platforms that have a track record of strong regulatory compliance.
- Store funds in hardware wallets as opposed to online exchanges.
What can you do?
Document everything immediately; including dates, times, locations and witnesses
Seek professional advice from a legal expert
You can report an incident to HR or an immediate supervisor
You can use the Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation’s dedicated hotline
In criminal cases, you can contact the police for additional support
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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The Facility’s Versatility
Between the start of the 2020 IPL on September 20, and the end of the Pakistan Super League this coming Thursday, the Zayed Cricket Stadium has had an unprecedented amount of traffic.
Never before has a ground in this country – or perhaps anywhere in the world – had such a volume of major-match cricket.
And yet scoring has remained high, and Abu Dhabi has seen some classic encounters in every format of the game.
October 18, IPL, Kolkata Knight Riders tied with Sunrisers Hyderabad
The two playoff-chasing sides put on 163 apiece, before Kolkata went on to win the Super Over
January 8, ODI, UAE beat Ireland by six wickets
A century by CP Rizwan underpinned one of UAE’s greatest ever wins, as they chased 270 to win with an over to spare
February 6, T10, Northern Warriors beat Delhi Bulls by eight wickets
The final of the T10 was chiefly memorable for a ferocious over of fast bowling from Fidel Edwards to Nicholas Pooran
March 14, Test, Afghanistan beat Zimbabwe by six wickets
Eleven wickets for Rashid Khan, 1,305 runs scored in five days, and a last session finish
June 17, PSL, Islamabad United beat Peshawar Zalmi by 15 runs
Usman Khawaja scored a hundred as Islamabad posted the highest score ever by a Pakistan team in T20 cricket
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PROFILE
Name: Enhance Fitness
Year started: 2018
Based: UAE
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Amount raised: $3m
Investors: Global Ventures and angel investors
