A huge oil tanker logjam in Istanbul's Bosphorus Strait could spark a major geopolitical crisis, analysts have warned, as 20 tankers wait to progress through one of the world's busiest maritime trade passages.
The crisis was sparked by stringent new rules imposed by Ankara at the beginning of December which require proof of insurance before vessels can pass through Turkey's straits and dock at its ports.
Twenty oil tankers were waiting to pass through the Bosphorus Strait on Friday, while eight waited to cross the Dardanelles farther south, Tribeca Shipping Agency reported.
It comes amid a western oil cap on Russian crude at $60 per barrel, and an EU and UK ban on maritime services transporting the product, including to third countries.
The US and UK are among the western powers in talks with Ankara to ease the measures, which were introduced before the oil cap was announced.
Turkey has said the vast majority of ships waiting to pass through its straits are EU vessels heading to European ports, and has said its “routine checks” do not justify international pressure.
The queue, however, has prompted deep concern in oil and tanker markets and could develop into a “serious geopolitical crisis”, affecting many Kazakh tankers carrying domestic oil products, a top analyst told The National.
Ankara’s measures “seem to be unfairly penalising Kazakhstan, which has nothing to do with the EU bans or price cap against Russia, while also risking shortages in Europe”, said Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights, which provides macroanalysis of global oil markets.
Under Turkey's new requirements, vessels must show full protection and indemnity insurance covering the duration of their transit through the Bosphorus Strait, or when calling at Turkish ports.
It came into place before the December 5 ruling by the EU, the Group of Seven and Australia, which bars shipping service providers from helping to export Russian oil unless it is sold at the capped price.
The new regulation is a bid to deplete Moscow's revenue and bring an end to its war in Ukraine.
Turkey has pushed back on growing international pressure and said it will need time to complete checks on incoming vessels.
It comes as Europe has raced to secure alternatives to Russian energy as winter sets in, leading to consumer cuts across the continent and spelling trouble for poorer nations.
“Ankara’s moves are thus pitching it against Astana as well as Brussels,” said Ms Hari.
“One presumes Turkey did not want to be seen as discriminating against Russia and hence decided to impose the stricter insurance checks broadly against all tankers crossing its straits.”
Turkey, along with the UN, brokered a vital grain agreement, assuaging fears of global food shortages amid the war in Ukraine.
The accord allows cargo ships carrying grain to depart from Black Sea ports previously blockaded by Russia, although Moscow temporarily withdrew from the deal after an attack on its fleet in occupied Crimea.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will hold new talks with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on December 11.
In September, shipping was halted on the Bosphorus Strait after a vessel carrying 3,000 tonnes of corn from Ukraine ran aground.
The 19km-wide strait has millions of barrels of oil passing through its waters each day. Almost 700 million barrels of crude flowed through the vital passageway in the past year.
The International Chamber of Shipping, which represents more than 80 per cent of the world’s merchant fleet, said the Turkish notice “goes beyond” usual confirmations, “causing delay while clarity is sought on the scope of the new requirements”.
The association hopes for a “swift resolution”, it said in a statement shared with The National.
“As shipowners, our priorities remain the safety and well-being of our crews and the environment,” it said. “Insurance is absolutely vital to support our obligations while we continue to deliver the world’s energy supply.”
The EU Commission on Friday said that the price cap is not responsible for the backlog.
“This situation is not due to the G7 oil price cap, since there is, in any case, a 45-day wind-down period for seaborne Russian crude oil purchased before December 5,” a commission representative told Reuters.
Turkish authorities can check insurance “exactly the same way as before” only after the G7 transition period ends on January 19, the representative added.
BABYLON
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Gifts exchanged
- King Charles - replica of President Eisenhower Sword
- Queen Camilla - Tiffany & Co vintage 18-carat gold, diamond and ruby flower brooch
- Donald Trump - hand-bound leather book with Declaration of Independence
- Melania Trump - personalised Anya Hindmarch handbag
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Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
Company%C2%A0profile
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
The National photo project
Chris Whiteoak, a photographer at The National, spent months taking some of Jacqui Allan's props around the UAE, positioning them perfectly in front of some of the country's most recognisable landmarks. He placed a pirate on Kite Beach, in front of the Burj Al Arab, the Cheshire Cat from Alice in Wonderland at the Burj Khalifa, and brought one of Allan's snails (Freddie, which represents her grandfather) to the Dubai Frame. In Abu Dhabi, a dinosaur went to Al Ain's Jebel Hafeet. And a flamingo was taken all the way to the Hatta Mountains. This special project suitably brings to life the quirky nature of Allan's prop shop (and Allan herself!).
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Abu Dhabi traffic facts
Drivers in Abu Dhabi spend 10 per cent longer in congested conditions than they would on a free-flowing road
The highest volume of traffic on the roads is found between 7am and 8am on a Sunday.
Travelling before 7am on a Sunday could save up to four hours per year on a 30-minute commute.
The day was the least congestion in Abu Dhabi in 2019 was Tuesday, August 13.
The highest levels of traffic were found on Sunday, November 10.
Drivers in Abu Dhabi lost 41 hours spent in traffic jams in rush hour during 2019
RESULTS
Lightweight (female)
Sara El Bakkali bt Anisha Kadka
Bantamweight
Mohammed Adil Al Debi bt Moaz Abdelgawad
Welterweight
Amir Boureslan bt Mahmoud Zanouny
Featherweight
Mohammed Al Katheeri bt Abrorbek Madaminbekov
Super featherweight
Ibrahem Bilal bt Emad Arafa
Middleweight
Ahmed Abdolaziz bt Imad Essassi
Bantamweight (female)
Ilham Bourakkadi bt Milena Martinou
Welterweight
Mohamed Mardi bt Noureddine El Agouti
Middleweight
Nabil Ouach bt Ymad Atrous
Welterweight
Nouredine Samir bt Marlon Ribeiro
Super welterweight
Brad Stanton bt Mohamed El Boukhari
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
TO%20CATCH%20A%20KILLER
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDamian%20Szifron%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Shailene%20Woodley%2C%20Ben%20Mendelsohn%2C%20Ralph%20Ineson%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Sui Dhaaga: Made in India
Director: Sharat Katariya
Starring: Varun Dhawan, Anushka Sharma, Raghubir Yadav
3.5/5
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
The specs: 2018 Nissan Patrol Nismo
Price: base / as tested: Dh382,000
Engine: 5.6-litre V8
Gearbox: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 428hp @ 5,800rpm
Torque: 560Nm @ 3,600rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.7L / 100km
Company profile
Name: Fruitful Day
Founders: Marie-Christine Luijckx, Lyla Dalal AlRawi, Lindsey Fournie
Based: Dubai, UAE
Founded: 2015
Number of employees: 30
Sector: F&B
Funding so far: Dh3 million
Future funding plans: None at present
Future markets: Saudi Arabia, potentially Kuwait and other GCC countries
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Reputation
Taylor Swift
(Big Machine Records)
Who is Tim-Berners Lee?
Sir Tim Berners-Lee was born in London in a household of mathematicians and computer scientists. Both his mother, Mary Lee, and father, Conway, were early computer scientists who worked on the Ferranti 1 - the world's first commercially-available, general purpose digital computer. Sir Tim studied Physics at the University of Oxford and held a series of roles developing code and building software before moving to Switzerland to work for Cern, the European Particle Physics laboratory. He developed the worldwide web code as a side project in 1989 as a global information-sharing system. After releasing the first web code in 1991, Cern made it open and free for all to use. Sir Tim now campaigns for initiatives to make sure the web remains open and accessible to all.
