Abdel Fattah El Sisi, Egypt's President of nine years, has yet to announce whether he will seek a third term in office, but the 68-year-old former army general's re-election campaign appears to be in full swing.
In a series of highly publicised appearances in recent days, he has sought to reassure Egyptians about his leadership, defended his handling of the economy and cited national unity and strong faith as the path to a better future.
Mr El Sisi is likely to declare his candidacy in early October, officials familiar with the campaign's strategy said.
The announcement could come on the 50th anniversary of the 1973 Middle East war, when Egyptian troops stormed Israel's fortified lines on the east bank of the Suez Canal – an attack that has found its place in Egypt's history books as a victory that avenged the nation's defeat in 1967.
The state of the economy and voter apathy are among the main challenges facing Mr El Sisi as he seeks to convince voters to give him six more years in leadership of the most populous Arab state.
Mr El Sisi's victory is almost a certainty, with none of his likely rivals enjoying much grassroots support or have the resources to run an effective campaign. In contrast, the incumbent has traditionally benefitted from the state's significant resources and friendly media.
In 2019, an amendment was made to the constitution that extended presidential terms by two years to six and disregarded the four-year term he served between 2014 and 2018. The clause that sets two terms as the maximum remained unchanged.
Mr El Sisi wants a respectable turnout that would give him a clear mandate to try to overhaul the economy and deliver on promises of prosperity made early on in his time in power, according to the officials.
“What the regime is most worried about is turnout. There is a widespread state of apathy among Egyptians as well as disgruntlement and loss of faith in the government over the economy,” Ammar Ali Hassan, an author, sociologist and commentator, told The National.
“The legitimacy of the regime will be questioned if the polling stations are empty,”
It is why the president and his campaign aides are expected to launch a campaign blitz ahead of the vote, which is expected in early 2024.
The campaign, the officials said, will include near-daily public appearances, calls to popular night-time talk shows and promotional videos played on giant screens on main streets in Cairo and in sports clubs and offices of pro-government parties in rural Egypt.
The videos will focus on Mr El Sisi's achievements, mostly the building of new cities – including a new capital in the desert east of Cairo – new roads, high-tech power stations and water desalination plants, as well as the reclamation of desert land to produce food.
Pamphlets on the president's achievements will be printed and widely distributed by volunteers, said the officials. Women from pro-government parties will be canvassing votes door-to-door across the nation, taking advantage of the access they enjoy in a mainly Muslim and conservative nation.
Already, giant billboards across Cairo, the Nile-side Egyptian capital of more than 20 million people, depict a pensive president looking over an imaginary horizon. Behind him is an image of the under-construction, $4.5 billion Cairo monorail.
“Together, we will build a modern Egypt,” declares the writing on the board.
The president made a rare visit last week to an isolated north-western region on the Mediterranean, where he served as a junior army officer. During the visit, he met local dignitaries and reassured them of a fair share of development funds.
On Saturday, he cycled at dawn to the military academy in the eastern Cairo suburb of Heliopolis, where he met new government employees in training before taking up their posts.
“We are determined, with the help of God, to find permanent solutions to the economic crisis through a very ambitious plan,” said the president.
The Egyptian economy, he said, would continue to suffer as long as the nation's import bill remains heavy. Only hard work and exports could bring about a breakthrough.
Several potential candidates have already said they would run against Mr El Sisi. Others have hinted they would but were waiting for the government to announce guarantees of a fair vote.
Those who have declared include four politicians, three of whom are supporters of the president, something that raises the possibility of a partial repeat of the 2018 vote.
Mr El Sisi's sole challenger – Moussa Mustafa Moussa – had no qualms about stating his unconditional support and admiration for the president during his campaign in 2018. Mr El Sisi thanked him then for his “classy” performance after sweeping to a clear victory with 97.08 per cent of the vote.
Since April last year, the president has allowed a measure of freedom not seen since he burst on to the scene in 2013 after the military, which he led at the time, ousted Mohammed Morsi, an Islamist elected president the previous year. He has also ordered the release from jail of more than 1,000 government critics, including prominent activists, and approved a “national dialogue” to chart the country's future.
Some critics in exile were allowed to return home and authorities restored access to some of the scores of independent online news sites that had been blocked.
But the opposition, while welcoming the releases, have complained of continuing arrests and said that freeing jailed critics and allowing a measure of freedom do not amount to genuine political reform.
Daily power cuts – made necessary by a shortage of fuel for power stations – have delivered a significant dent to the president's talk of a qualitative leap in services and the quality of life under his leadership.
The power cuts, lasting up to two hours a day, coincided with one of the hottest summers in record, with temperatures daily hovering around 40°C in July.
But the president remains confident and unperturbed.
“Let me tell you something: Over the last eight years we have worked in every corner of Egypt. There is not a single place in Egypt that has not been touched by the hand of development,” he told dignitaries in the coastal region of Matrouh, north-west of Cairo.
“We are in the middle of a crisis, granted. But it is one of many challenges we have come across,” he said.
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
FA Cup quarter-final draw
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Norwich v Derby/Manchester United
Leicester City v Chelsea
THE BIO
Bio Box
Role Model: Sheikh Zayed, God bless his soul
Favorite book: Zayed Biography of the leader
Favorite quote: To be or not to be, that is the question, from William Shakespeare's Hamlet
Favorite food: seafood
Favorite place to travel: Lebanon
Favorite movie: Braveheart
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Stars: Ajith Kumar, Arjun Sarja, Trisha Krishnan, Regina Cassandra
Rating: 4/5
What is the FNC?
The Federal National Council is one of five federal authorities established by the UAE constitution. It held its first session on December 2, 1972, a year to the day after Federation.
It has 40 members, eight of whom are women. The members represent the UAE population through each of the emirates. Abu Dhabi and Dubai have eight members each, Sharjah and Ras al Khaimah six, and Ajman, Fujairah and Umm Al Quwain have four.
They bring Emirati issues to the council for debate and put those concerns to ministers summoned for questioning.
The FNC’s main functions include passing, amending or rejecting federal draft laws, discussing international treaties and agreements, and offering recommendations on general subjects raised during sessions.
Federal draft laws must first pass through the FNC for recommendations when members can amend the laws to suit the needs of citizens. The draft laws are then forwarded to the Cabinet for consideration and approval.
Since 2006, half of the members have been elected by UAE citizens to serve four-year terms and the other half are appointed by the Ruler’s Courts of the seven emirates.
In the 2015 elections, 78 of the 252 candidates were women. Women also represented 48 per cent of all voters and 67 per cent of the voters were under the age of 40.
Who was Alfred Nobel?
The Nobel Prize was created by wealthy Swedish chemist and entrepreneur Alfred Nobel.
- In his will he dictated that the bulk of his estate should be used to fund "prizes to those who, during the preceding year, have conferred the greatest benefit to humankind".
- Nobel is best known as the inventor of dynamite, but also wrote poetry and drama and could speak Russian, French, English and German by the age of 17. The five original prize categories reflect the interests closest to his heart.
- Nobel died in 1896 but it took until 1901, following a legal battle over his will, before the first prizes were awarded.
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