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The US is in talks with its Middle East allies about possible outcomes of the Israel-Gaza war but is not prioritising a ceasefire, a western military official has told The National.
America wants to keep its pro-Iranian foes from widening the conflict and help its Arab Levant allies deal with any domestic repercussions of Israel’s attacks of Gaza, said the official, who is in contact with Washington.
“The United States has little control at this stage on what the Israelis are doing to Gaza,” said the official.
“A US role will develop as far as a ceasefire if Israel gets bogged down in Gaza."
The official was speaking from Amman as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Israel on Thursday in a show of support.
Mr Blinken is due to meet Jordan’s King Abdullah II and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in Amman on Friday.
The State Department has not revealed any specifics on the objectives of Mr Blinken’s trip.
He will be “sympathetic” to the position of Jordanian and Palestinian authorities, which are dealing with public pressure as civilian casualties in Gaza mount, the official said.
Israeli retaliatory bombing has killed more than 1,300 people in Gaza in less than a week, after the Hamas attack on Israel killed about 1,300. Most of the dead on both sides were civilians.
“There is a need to assuage Arab domestic constituencies,” the official said, pointing out government-sanctioned demonstrations in solidarity with Gaza in Jordan this week.
He said Washington was also exploring a scenario in which Israel manages to overrun the whole of Gaza, regarded by many analysts as the worst outcome, involving countless thousands more civilians being killed.
“Washington would have to throw more support to the Palestinian Authority and Egypt in this case, because Israel would not want to take over the administration of Gaza,” he said.
Gaza was under Egyptian control before Israel occupied the area in 1967, along with the Sinai, which it returned to Egypt in exchange for peace in the late 1970s.
The Israeli-occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem had been administered by Jordan until the 1967 conflict, while Syria controlled the Golan Heights.
The Palestinian Authority lost control of Gaza to Hamas in a civil war in 2007.
Egypt has made it clear that it supports the Palestinian right of self-determination and does not want to return to the 1967 status quo.
Reuters quoted an unnamed Egyptian security official as saying on Wednesday that Cairo had talked to countries including the US about humanitarian aid to Gaza, but rejected proposed safe corridors to Egypt for people fleeing the fighting.
Complicating possible de-escalation talks, there are also militias directly supported by Tehran in Gaza that are allied to Hamas, such as Palestinian Islamic Jihad, as well as in Syria, where such groups have sporadically fired projectiles at Israel in recent days.
Israel has launched thousands of air strikes against the militias since 2012.
Palestinian groups also operate in southern Lebanon, where Iran has its strongest proxy force, Hezbollah.
Despite an expansion of Iranian influence over Hamas and other Palestinian factions in the past decade, US officials "went out of their way" this week to dismiss any direct role for Iran in the attack from Gaza on Israel, the official said.
“The boats and the paragliders Hamas used have all the hallmarks of training and supply by Iran,” the official said.
"But America wants to keep playing ball with Iran," he said. "All sides are hoping that the border skirmishes with Lebanon and Syria will remain at a tit-for-tat level."
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
ODI FIXTURE SCHEDULE
First ODI, October 22
Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai
Second ODI, October 25
Maharashtra Cricket Association Stadium, Pune
Third ODI, October 29
Venue TBC
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Favourite book: Asking for my favourite book has to be one of the hardest questions. However a current favourite would be Sidewalk by Mitchell Duneier
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What do you love eating or cooking: I’m constantly in the kitchen. Ever since I changed the way I eat I enjoy choosing and creating what goes into my body. However, nothing can top home cooked food from my parents.
Favorite place to go in the UAE: A quiet beach.
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Tax authority targets shisha levy evasion
The Federal Tax Authority will track shisha imports with electronic markers to protect customers and ensure levies have been paid.
Khalid Ali Al Bustani, director of the tax authority, on Sunday said the move is to "prevent tax evasion and support the authority’s tax collection efforts".
The scheme’s first phase, which came into effect on 1st January, 2019, covers all types of imported and domestically produced and distributed cigarettes. As of May 1, importing any type of cigarettes without the digital marks will be prohibited.
He said the latest phase will see imported and locally produced shisha tobacco tracked by the final quarter of this year.
"The FTA also maintains ongoing communication with concerned companies, to help them adapt their systems to meet our requirements and coordinate between all parties involved," he said.
As with cigarettes, shisha was hit with a 100 per cent tax in October 2017, though manufacturers and cafes absorbed some of the costs to prevent prices doubling.
Banthology: Stories from Unwanted Nations
Edited by Sarah Cleave, Comma Press