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As the Middle East struggles to contain the Israel-Gaza war, which has drawn in the Lebanese Hezbollah group and Yemen’s Houthi rebels, a major ISIS attack in the Iranian city of Kerman last week only underlines the risk of a wider regional conflict.
The bombings at a memorial for Iranian general Qassem Suleimani have raised fears that ISIS is now entering the fray, if only to exploit the chaos.
The so-called “double-tap” suicide bombings that have characterised many ISIS atrocities killed almost 100 people in Kerman on January 3.
Suleimani, who was assassinated in Iraq in 2020 by a US drone, led the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Quds Force. The IRGC and its allied militias fought against ISIS in Iraq and Syria during the terror group's rise and fall to power between 2013 and 2019.
After the January 3 bombing, Hossein Salami, who now heads the IRGC, said ISIS were “mercenaries” of the US and UK. The US issued a statement saying it had nothing to do with the Kerman blasts, but this is unlikely to dispel tensions.
Fortunes have crumbled in the region for ISIS, following the group's near-total defeat during the battles of Mosul and Raqqa between 2016 and 2019.
In Iraq, where ISIS previously controlled the country's second-largest city Mosul, the group now conducts small hit-and-run attacks, in sharp contrast to hundreds of bombings and assassinations per month at the group’s peak.
But the scale of the Kerman attacks, against the backdrop of regional tension, could signal a resurgence.
ISIS in retreat?
Iran appears convinced ISIS remains a threat backed by shadowy foreign forces. Tehran has frequently repeated accusations that ISIS is supported by Israel and the US, without providing concrete evidence to support its claims.
It has blamed Israel for extremist attacks in Arab nations going as far back as 1979, when Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini blamed Israel for attacks in Saudi Arabia that year.
Those attacks were the work of a fringe religious cult.
ISIS claimed responsibility for the attacks on Kerman.
The assault does appear to be the work of ISIS, experts told The National, and fits with their obscure vision of global struggle to overthrow governments in the region, the West and Israel.
The terror group considers the attacks in line with a push against those it labels “apostates” and “polytheists.”
ISIS - including the Afghan branch of the group that allegedly carried out the Kerman attack - prioritises targets based on its extreme prejudice against religious groups or people it views as straying from its ideology.
In this light, the Kerman attack is an attempt to be seen as relevant, despite waning power in the Middle East, analysts say.
“Having studied their work since 2003, this is their playbook” says Craig Whiteside, expert on the terror group at the US Naval War College and co-author of The ISIS Reader
"The global attention on Gaza means Hamas has potential to reframe a global jihad as a nationalist enterprise against Israeli occupation," he said, which is not the way that ISIS frames jihad.
He says attacks such as the Kerman bombing distinguish ISIS from other extremist movements, including its forerunner, Al Qaeda, a trend that emerged in the early days of the Iraq invasion.
“Al Qaeda’s central leadership constantly challenged them early to avoid sectarian attacks against Shiite Iraqis because it detracted from AQ's framing of the fight against the US, which was comparable to the Hamas and Israel struggle,” he says, adding that the militant group in Gaza wants to gain support from states and various non-state groups.
ISIS' countless enemies
ISIS has a vast array of enemies across the region and beyond.
Before ISIS, Al Qaeda saw its struggle as to violently expel western influence from the Middle East. ISIS took this idea much further, vastly expanding its list of enemies to anyone the group considered to have strayed from its path.
The extremists also embraced violence for new political uses.
“Early ISIS adherents disregarded this [Al Qaeda’s vision]. It isn't about killing people,” Mr Whiteside says, explaining how ISIS uses terror not to militarily weaken opponents, but to highlight their movement.
“It is about using violence to persuade others to adopt its framing of the conflict the way ISIS sees it. First they must defeat the apostates and apostate rulers, and there are no greater apostates than the Shia,” Mr Whiteside says, referring to the attacks on Shiite-majority Iran.
ISIS gained notoriety for extreme brutality in Iraq, not only targeting such as Christians, Shiites and Yazidis, but also bombing Sunni gatherings, including funerals, to strike at Sunni sheikhs and other community figures who opposed it.
It views the Palestinian group Hamas in the same light as these “enemies”, Mr Whiteside says.
“If you look at ISIS writings on Palestine, most are critiques of Hamas. They hate the Muslim Brotherhood and fought it in Iraq for twenty years. And they probably would prioritise fighting Hamas over Israel, because if the Muslim Brotherhood wins the battles of ideas then their movement is over,” Mr Whiteside says.
Attempt to stay relevant
Aymenn Al Tamimi, a Middle East Forum Fellow, agrees with Mr Whiteside that the attack in Iran is mainly a signal of “relevance,” rather than the start of a new revival of the group.
“I think it's a bid to show relevance yes, but strictly from the standpoint of its worldview that is seen as the only legitimate path to [eventually] liberating Palestine," he said.
"This means fighting and defeating the 'apostates' around Israel so that the 'apostates' no longer have a monopoly on the Palestinian cause, while at the same time being ready to target Jews and Israeli interests in Israel and around the world in a bid to show support for the people of Palestine,” he added.
“The target and timing in Iran were definitely chosen in relation to Qassem Suleimani and the anniversary of his assassination," he said.
"I think ultimately though it's a sideshow in the picture of Gaza and the US drawdown from Iraq, and yes, the attack (and IS' other claimed attacks in Iraq, Syria and the world within this 'expedition') do not show the group is 'resurgent’” he said.
The specs: 2017 Ford F-150 Raptor
Price, base / as tested Dh220,000 / Dh320,000
Engine 3.5L V6
Transmission 10-speed automatic
Power 421hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque 678Nm @ 3,750rpm
Fuel economy, combined 14.1L / 100km
PROFILE OF HALAN
Started: November 2017
Founders: Mounir Nakhla, Ahmed Mohsen and Mohamed Aboulnaga
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Sector: transport and logistics
Size: 150 employees
Investment: approximately $8 million
Investors include: Singapore’s Battery Road Digital Holdings, Egypt’s Algebra Ventures, Uber co-founder and former CTO Oscar Salazar
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How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
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GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
The specs: 2018 Nissan Altima
Price, base / as tested: Dh78,000 / Dh97,650
Engine: 2.5-litre in-line four-cylinder
Power: 182hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 244Nm @ 4,000rpm
Transmission: Continuously variable tranmission
Fuel consumption, combined: 7.6L / 100km
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CDU: "Now is the time to control the German borders and enforce strict border rejections"
SPD: "Border closures and blanket rejections at internal borders contradict the spirit of a common area of freedom"
Pearls on a Branch: Oral Tales
Najlaa Khoury, Archipelago Books
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
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- Premier League-standard football pitch
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- 600-seat auditorium
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World Cricket League Division 2
In Windhoek, Namibia - Top two teams qualify for the World Cup Qualifier in Zimbabwe, which starts on March 4.
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Thursday February 8, v Kenya; Friday February 9, v Canada; Sunday February 11, v Nepal; Monday February 12, v Oman; Wednesday February 14, v Namibia; Thursday February 15, final
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Ukraine
Capital: Kiev
Population: 44.13 million
Armed conflict in Donbass
Russia-backed fighters control territory
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RESULTS
6.30pm Handicap (TB) US$65,000 (Dirt) 1,400m
Winner Golden Goal, Pat Dobbs (jockey), Doug Watson (trainer)
7.05pm Dubai Racing Club Classic Listed Handicap (TB) $88,000 (Turf) 2,410m
Winner: Walton Street, William Buick, Charlie Appleby.
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Winner Switzerland, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar
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8.50pm Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 (TB) $228,000 (D) 1,600m
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Winner Land Of Legends, Frankie Dettori, Saeed bin Suroor
10pm Dubai Dash Listed Handicap (TB) $88,000 (T) 1,000m
Winner Equilateral, Frankie Dettori, Charles Hills.
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
