Iran has enough near weapons-grade uranium that it could build a nuclear bomb in three to four weeks with current stockpiles, a UN atomic energy agency report released on Wednesday said.
The milestone puts it way past the limits of the 2015 nuclear accord with world powers that limited Iran to possessing uranium enriched to only 3.67 per cent — down from the 20 per cent that it had at the time and well below the 90 per cent needed for weapons.
The US withdrawal from the deal under then-president Donald Trump and its reimposition of sanctions prompted Iran to breach the deal's nuclear restrictions.
The International Atomic Energy Agency's quarterly report to member states, seen by Reuters, said that Iran has increased its stockpiles of 60 per cent uranium hexafluoride — which can be enriched in a centrifuge — by 12.5 kilograms to 55.6kg.
“Iran now can produce 25kg [of uranium] at 90 per cent if they want to,” a senior diplomat said in response to Wednesday's report when asked if the country had enough material for a bomb.
It would take Iran about three to four weeks to produce enough material for a bomb if it wanted to, the diplomat said, and it would take the IAEA two to three days to detect a move in that direction.
Iran has long denied it is attempting to build a bomb and insists its nuclear activities are peaceful.
Indirect talks between Iran and the US have made only stuttering progress towards reviving the 2015 deal, which would take the many advanced centrifuges Tehran is now using offline, as the deal only allowed it to enrich with first-generation IR-1 centrifuges.
A revived deal would also slash its stocks of uranium enriched to various levels — currently about four tonnes — back to within the deal's cap of 202.8kg.
However, Iran's continued refusal to account for uranium particles found at three previously undeclared sites has become a major stumbling block to agreeing on a return to the deal.
Iran has demanded that the IAEA's years-long investigation into the discovery be scrapped while those in the international community have demanded answers.
The West has said that Iran, as a signatory of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, must clear the matter up and that it has nothing to do with the 2015 agreement.
“[IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi] is increasingly concerned that Iran has not engaged with the agency on the outstanding safeguard issues during this reporting period and, therefore, that there has been no progress towards resolving them,” a second agency report, also seen by Reuters, said.
US intelligence agencies and the IAEA believe Iran had a secret, co-ordinated nuclear weapons programme that it halted in 2003. Iran, however, insists it never had such a programme.
Most of the sites are thought to date back to about 2003 or earlier.
“The agency is not in a position to provide assurance that Iran's nuclear programme is exclusively peaceful,” the report said.
This means that without credible explanations from Iran on what happened to the uranium that appears to have been present at the three sites, the agency could not guarantee that material had not been syphoned off to make weapons.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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Dhadak
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