Iraq’s stumbling government formation process has taken a dangerous turn after an allegedly leaked recording of former prime minister Nouri Al Maliki was made public last week.
Influential nationalist cleric Moqtada Al Sadr responded angrily to the recording, which contains personal attacks on him, sparking protests by his supporters in Baghdad and several southern Iraqi towns.
Both Mr Al Sadr and his rivals in the Shiite Co-ordination Framework (SCF) command heavily armed followers and have clashed in the past.
In the recording — the authenticity of which is contested — the former prime minister claims Mr Al Sadr is backed by foreign powers, whom he accuses of a kidnapping and murder campaign across Iraq during years of sectarian violence after the 2003 US-led invasion.
Mr Al Maliki, who led Iraq between 2006 and 2014 before being removed from office as ISIS took over one third of Iraq, has been nominated by his State of Law Coalition for the role of prime minister, amid a government formation process that has stumbled for nearly 10 months.
Mr Al Sadr once commanded a notorious militia, the Jaish Al Mahdi, which is accused of human rights violations.
In perhaps the most politically damaging part of the recording, Mr Al Maliki calls the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), a largely Iran-backed militia force accused of war crimes and violent crackdowns on protesters, “cowards”.
Mr Al Maliki is allied to parties linked to the PMF and passed legislation in June 2014 to legalise the militias as a state-backed force.
The two men are bitter rivals. In 2008, Mr Al Maliki sent the Iraqi army to the southern port city of Basra to drive out a militia force loyal to Mr Al Sadr, which had taken control of the city.
Yesar Al Maleki, a Gulf analyst at the Middle East Economic Survey, said the recordings “fit the narrative of the Maliki versus Sadr saga, which is that this old rivalry that is not going to die".
"So has Maliki been ambushed?" he said. "Yes.
“The timing is very important. This is where Sadr is still a major player. He put out all these statements and we saw how many people went out to support him afterwards. The Sadrists were having gatherings and just last Friday they had perhaps one of the biggest Friday rallies in post-2003 Iraq.”
Mr Al Sadr says Mr Al Maliki should apologise to him and leave politics.
Government formation stumbles
The backlash against Mr Al Maliki could complicate efforts by the SCF to form the next government.
In a surprise move, Mr Al Sadr last month passed the responsibility of government formation to his rival parliamentary bloc when he asked his MPs to withdraw from government, instantly removing the Sadrists from Parliament.
Sixty-four out of 73 MPs loyal to the cleric — the largest bloc in Parliament — have since been replaced, mainly by members of the Co-ordination Framework.
At the head of that grouping is Mr Al Maliki and Fatah Alliance head, former militiaman and Iran-loyalist Hadi Al Amiri.
On paper, they are now in pole position to form the next government, with the largest bloc, but will still need the support of Sunni and Kurdish parties, some of whom were allied to Mr Al Sadr.
But Mr Al Sadr’s move, while self-destructive in appearance, has revealed splits within the SCF that have now been exacerbated by the leaked recording.
Mr Al Maliki was an uncertain choice for some in the SCF who felt he could be too divisive and provoke mass protests from the Sadrists.
“That recording has clearly hit a nerve," said Kirk Sowell, who runs Iraq-focused consultancy Utica Risk.
"My view is that Maliki's unofficial candidacy to have a third term never had a chance, and it was just a question of how long and what they'd have to give him to save face and back down. If this weakens Maliki, maybe it speeds up government formation by weakening Maliki's hand."
A new civil war?
While the Sadrists and some militias linked to the SCF have clashed in the past, and recent months have seen a sharp rise in assassinations of figures linked to the PMF, some believe a new Shiite-Shiite conflict can be avoided.
Norman Ricklefs, who advised Iraqi security forces during Mr Al Maliki’s last major clash with Sadrists in 2008, predicts political chaos could drag on into next year, but is uncertain about armed conflict.
“The most important outcome of the press release by Sadr’s office is that it makes the formation of a new government from this Parliament more difficult, making fresh elections in 2023 more likely," he said.
"It also affirms to the Sadrist movement that it can continue to play a powerful political role from outside the Parliament, which has the unfortunate effect of undermining Parliament’s authority.”
Mr Al Maleki agrees that Mr Al Sadr likes to maintain the image of being separate from the political process, despite retaining strong influence in ministries.
Mr Al Sadr is "back to where he is most comfortable, which is influencing government policy, influencing politics while not getting his hands dirty in the process", he said.
Mr Sowell said despite the seemingly endless deadlock between parties with armed groups, conflict is not preordained.
He said there appeared to be considerable efforts to avoid any Shiite-Shiite conflict and predicted “that we are headed for a 2018 scenario”.
Under such a scenario, Shiite leaders would select someone “with no electoral mandate or political base, someone not controversial for Sadr, and Iraq gets another weak government”.
Mr Sowell said: "In my mind, the main uncertainty is how many weeks or months it takes to get Maliki to climb down."
Conservative MPs who have publicly revealed sending letters of no confidence
- Steve Baker
- Peter Bone
- Ben Bradley
- Andrew Bridgen
- Maria Caulfield
- Simon Clarke
- Philip Davies
- Nadine Dorries
- James Duddridge
- Mark Francois
- Chris Green
- Adam Holloway
- Andrea Jenkyns
- Anne-Marie Morris
- Sheryll Murray
- Jacob Rees-Mogg
- Laurence Robertson
- Lee Rowley
- Henry Smith
- Martin Vickers
- John Whittingdale
Company%20Profile
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The Matrix Resurrections
Director: Lana Wachowski
Stars: Keanu Reeves, Carrie-Anne Moss, Jessica Henwick
Rating:****
Scoreline
Ireland 16 (Tries: Stockdale Cons: Sexton Pens: Sexton 3)
New Zealand 9 (Pens: Barrett 2 Drop Goal: Barrett)
Email sent to Uber team from chief executive Dara Khosrowshahi
From: Dara
To: Team@
Date: March 25, 2019 at 11:45pm PT
Subj: Accelerating in the Middle East
Five years ago, Uber launched in the Middle East. It was the start of an incredible journey, with millions of riders and drivers finding new ways to move and work in a dynamic region that’s become so important to Uber. Now Pakistan is one of our fastest-growing markets in the world, women are driving with Uber across Saudi Arabia, and we chose Cairo to launch our first Uber Bus product late last year.
Today we are taking the next step in this journey—well, it’s more like a leap, and a big one: in a few minutes, we’ll announce that we’ve agreed to acquire Careem. Importantly, we intend to operate Careem independently, under the leadership of co-founder and current CEO Mudassir Sheikha. I’ve gotten to know both co-founders, Mudassir and Magnus Olsson, and what they have built is truly extraordinary. They are first-class entrepreneurs who share our platform vision and, like us, have launched a wide range of products—from digital payments to food delivery—to serve consumers.
I expect many of you will ask how we arrived at this structure, meaning allowing Careem to maintain an independent brand and operate separately. After careful consideration, we decided that this framework has the advantage of letting us build new products and try new ideas across not one, but two, strong brands, with strong operators within each. Over time, by integrating parts of our networks, we can operate more efficiently, achieve even lower wait times, expand new products like high-capacity vehicles and payments, and quicken the already remarkable pace of innovation in the region.
This acquisition is subject to regulatory approval in various countries, which we don’t expect before Q1 2020. Until then, nothing changes. And since both companies will continue to largely operate separately after the acquisition, very little will change in either teams’ day-to-day operations post-close. Today’s news is a testament to the incredible business our team has worked so hard to build.
It’s a great day for the Middle East, for the region’s thriving tech sector, for Careem, and for Uber.
Uber on,
Dara
MATCH INFO
Fixture: Thailand v UAE, Tuesday, 4pm (UAE)
TV: Abu Dhabi Sports
The%20specs
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Libya's Gold
UN Panel of Experts found regime secretly sold a fifth of the country's gold reserves.
The panel’s 2017 report followed a trail to West Africa where large sums of cash and gold were hidden by Abdullah Al Senussi, Qaddafi’s former intelligence chief, in 2011.
Cases filled with cash that was said to amount to $560m in 100 dollar notes, that was kept by a group of Libyans in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.
A second stash was said to have been held in Accra, Ghana, inside boxes at the local offices of an international human rights organisation based in France.
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Starring: Saja Kilani, Clara Khoury, Motaz Malhees
Director: Kaouther Ben Hania
Rating: 4/5
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Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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Rating: 1 out of 4
Running time: 81 minutes
Director: David Blue Garcia
Starring: Sarah Yarkin, Elsie Fisher, Mark Burnham
UK’s AI plan
- AI ambassadors such as MIT economist Simon Johnson, Monzo cofounder Tom Blomfield and Google DeepMind’s Raia Hadsell
- £10bn AI growth zone in South Wales to create 5,000 jobs
- £100m of government support for startups building AI hardware products
- £250m to train new AI models
The Florida Project
Director: Sean Baker
Starring: Bria Vinaite, Brooklynn Prince, Willem Dafoe
Four stars
How much of your income do you need to save?
The more you save, the sooner you can retire. Tuan Phan, a board member of SimplyFI.com, says if you save just 5 per cent of your salary, you can expect to work for another 66 years before you are able to retire without too large a drop in income.
In other words, you will not save enough to retire comfortably. If you save 15 per cent, you can forward to another 43 working years. Up that to 40 per cent of your income, and your remaining working life drops to just 22 years. (see table)
Obviously, this is only a rough guide. How much you save will depend on variables, not least your salary and how much you already have in your pension pot. But it shows what you need to do to achieve financial independence.
Quick facts on cancer
- Cancer is the second-leading cause of death worldwide, after cardiovascular diseases
- About one in five men and one in six women will develop cancer in their lifetime
- By 2040, global cancer cases are on track to reach 30 million
- 70 per cent of cancer deaths occur in low and middle-income countries
- This rate is expected to increase to 75 per cent by 2030
- At least one third of common cancers are preventable
- Genetic mutations play a role in 5 per cent to 10 per cent of cancers
- Up to 3.7 million lives could be saved annually by implementing the right health
strategies
- The total annual economic cost of cancer is $1.16 trillion
ENGLAND SQUAD
Joe Root (c), Moeen Ali, Jimmy Anderson, Jonny Bairstow, Stuart Broad, Jos Buttler, Alastair Cook, Sam Curran, Keaton Jennings, Ollie Pope, Adil Rashid, Ben Stokes, James Vince, Chris Woakes
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
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Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
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