Lebanon currency has lost 11 per cent against the dollar in less than a week. Photo AFP
Lebanon currency has lost 11 per cent against the dollar in less than a week. Photo AFP
Lebanon currency has lost 11 per cent against the dollar in less than a week. Photo AFP
Lebanon currency has lost 11 per cent against the dollar in less than a week. Photo AFP

Lebanese pound loses 13% of its value in less than a week


Nada Maucourant Atallah
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The Lebanese pound experienced a sudden decline on the parallel market, reaching 57,000 against the dollar on Wednesday morning, marking a loss in value of 13 per cent in a week.

Once pegged at around 1,507 to the US currency, the Lebanese pound has now lost 97 per cent of its value since the start of an unprecedented financial crisis caused by a drastic shortage of dollars, which plunged 80 per cent of the population into poverty.

The sudden drop in the exchange rate caused sporadic protests throughout the country.

In Beirut, the Depositors' Outcry Association, an advocacy group for depositors, called for a sit-in outside the Central Bank headquarters in Beirut, which was joined by a small group of protesters on Wednesday.

Lebanon's National News Agency reported that demonstrators blocked several roads across the country on Tuesday and Wednesday to protest the worsening living conditions and soaring inflation. The inflation surged to 171 per cent in 2022, one of the highest levels in nearly four decades, according to Central Administration of Statistics inflation figures released in January.

Gas stations closed

Fuel tariffs sharply increased on Wednesday, as the Ministry of Energy released new prices. The move came to respond to the sharp drop of the Lebanese pound against the dollar by hiking the prices of 20 litres of 95-octane gasoline, 98-octane gasoline and diesel by almost LL50,000.

The Energy Ministry publishes daily tariffs in Lebanese pounds, but fuel imports are dollar-dependent and need adjustment when the local currency depreciates.

The ministry had already increased fuel prices on Tuesday to fall in line with the current exchange rate, but prices were already out-of-date at the end of the day.

On Wednesday morning, most gas stations were closed across Lebanon to contest the high instability of the currency as gas distributors were waiting for the publication of an updated list of prices, causing long queues in front of the ones that were still operating.

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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Hydrogen: Market potential

Hydrogen has an estimated $11 trillion market potential, according to Bank of America Securities and is expected to generate $2.5tn in direct revenues and $11tn of indirect infrastructure by 2050 as its production increases six-fold.

"We believe we are reaching the point of harnessing the element that comprises 90 per cent of the universe, effectively and economically,” the bank said in a recent report.

Falling costs of renewable energy and electrolysers used in green hydrogen production is one of the main catalysts for the increasingly bullish sentiment over the element.

The cost of electrolysers used in green hydrogen production has halved over the last five years and will fall to 60 to 90 per cent by the end of the decade, acceding to Haim Israel, equity strategist at Merrill Lynch. A global focus on decarbonisation and sustainability is also a big driver in its development.

Updated: January 25, 2023, 2:25 PM