Almost 14 months after Lebanon's former head of state Michel Aoun left the presidential palace in Baabda, the country is set to enter 2024 without a president and with no resolution in imminent sight after 12 intermittent parliamentary sessions.
Presidential vacuums are common in Lebanon, with the new head of state normally elected after a series of behind-closed-doors deals are hammered out. But now the situation is particularly acute in a country entrenched in a more than four-year economic crisis, with only a caretaker government, and at risk of being dragged further into the Israel-Gaza war.
“It could have devastating consequences because we are in the midst of a regional war and in the midst of state collapse,” said Karim Bitar, a professor of International Relations at Saint Joseph University in Beirut.
“Lebanon does simply not have the luxury of allowing this presidential vacuum to continue.”
Choosing a president in Lebanon is a complex process and hindered by the deep divisions between the country's political parties.
Under Lebanon's unique confessional system, the president must be a Maronite Christian, and must be nominated by Lebanon's 128-seat parliament, where no bloc holds a majority.
This time around, no candidate has come close to securing the two-thirds majority required to be approved in the first round of voting.
Further sessions in the same round, where a candidate only needs an absolute majority, have not taken place because the quorum has been lost as MPs leave the room in a bid to prevent their rival candidate obtaining the necessary support.
“The way I would describe it is much more than the usual Lebanese deadlock. We have entered a situation where the abnormal has become the new normal, where everyone seems to be 'waiting for Godot',” said Prof Bitar, referring to the Samuel Beckett play where two characters wait for someone to turn up but they never do.
Prof Bitar added that there is an “endless vicious circle” of Lebanese politicians citing a range of issues as an excuse to procrastinate.
“Today, some of them say they are waiting to see the results of the war on Gaza. Later we might hear that they are waiting to see the result of the US presidential election and maybe later, wait for the new president to take office. So it's an endless vicious circle,” he said.
Votes were divided between two main candidates for the most recent session in June – Jihad Azour, a senior official in the International Monetary Fund, and Suleiman Frangieh, the scion of an influential politician dynasty who is close friends with Syria's Bashar Al Assad.
Supporters of both candidates show little sign of compromise. That is especially the case with the two major Shiite parties Hezbollah and the Amal Movement – led by parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri, who seem intent on continuing their support for Mr Frangieh.
Those who voted for Mr Azour are rankled by Hezbollah and Amal's stubborn backing of Mr Frangieh. They say there is no point looking for a “third way” candidate when the Shiite parties will not soften their approach.
“We have shown a great will to elect a president and we have done everything possible to go for an election and end this vacuum, but unfortunately this is not echoed by the other group who is still today trying to delay it for a certain reason or another,” said a representative of parliament's largest party, the Lebanese Forces, which supported Mr Azour in June.
The Lebanese Forces had previously backed MP Michel Moawad for president in the preceding 11 sessions.
The representative continued: “Maybe they consider that the regional balance will shift in their favour, maybe they believe they can influence more regional powers to fight their fight and lead their candidate to the presidency.
“They have lots of calculations that are non-Lebanese, all our investment is to boost the Lebanese institutions and finalise this election,” the source said, referring to the close ties Hezbollah has with Iran. Opponents of the Iran-backed group frequently refer to that close relationship when criticising the group.
It took about two and a half years before Mr Aoun was finally elected in 2016, in part due to a deal with his long-time Christian foe Samir Geagea, the leader of the Lebanese Forces.
“We have seen this ugly scenario before: it took 29 months to elect a president between 2014 and 2016,” said Prof Bitar.
“As long as there is no decision on the part of the ruling oligarchs, the five or six sectarian leaders that are running this country, that it is time to go back to the state, to abide by the constitution, to the state of law, to reclaim the state and institutions, it could take forever.
“This is what I'm mostly worried about, is that people are becoming accustomed to this completely abnormal situation,” he added.
The presidency had fallen down the agenda due to the outbreak of the Israel-Gaza war across Lebanon's southern border, which has spilt into daily cross-border fire between Israeli forces and Hezbollah.
However, the presidency is one of the fundamental issues that faces the dysfunctional Lebanese state.
On a visit to Beirut last month, French presidential envoy Jean Yves Le Drian raised the issue of the presidency again.
France is part of the so-called quintet for Lebanon, which also includes Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar and the US.
The group, comprising five influential countries with an active interest in Lebanon, has often met over the vacancy and repeatedly urged MPs to end the impasse.
It is understood that Mr Le Drian for the first time suggested a “third way” in his talks with politicians, while voicing an acceptance that Mr Frangieh and Mr Azour stood no change of succeeding Mr Aoun.
A rare recent success in Lebanon's fragmented political scene was averting another leadership vacuum at the head of the army, extending General Joseph Aoun's term by a year.
With no president to appoint a successor and the caretaker government largely stripped of its powers, it fell to MPs to legislate to stop issues arising.
But, as pointed out by Melhem Khalaf – a new MP closely linked to the 2019 protests against the ruling class – this urgency to prevent another vacuum should also extend to the presidency.
He asked those who had warned of potential instability at the top of the army if a resolution was not found: “What about the risk of not electing a President of the Republic?”
Mr Khalaf, a legal expert and former head of the Beirut Bar Association, has argued that, according to article 74 of the Lebanese constitution, in the event of a presidential vacancy parliament should convene immediately and not stop until a new head of state is elected.
“If you look back, many things would really have been solved if we had a president. The commander would have been [simply] running business if there was a president. But today it's a matter of state security,” said the Lebanese Forces representative.
Since Mr Aoun's term expired in October 31 the terms of two other crucial positions have ended, with no permanent successor announced because there was no president to appoint them – General Security chief Abbas Ibrahim and controversial central bank governor Riad Salameh.
But the continued absence of a president is seen as a much more serious situation, especially with a caretaker government largely stripped of its powers, in a country where Israel and Hezbollah are engaged in daily cross border attacks.
It is also a country that has since 2019 been embroiled in one of the worst economic crises in modern history, with the local currency losing around 98 per cent of its value and much of the population plunged into poverty.
We Weren’t Supposed to Survive But We Did
We weren’t supposed to survive but we did.
We weren’t supposed to remember but we did.
We weren’t supposed to write but we did.
We weren’t supposed to fight but we did.
We weren’t supposed to organise but we did.
We weren’t supposed to rap but we did.
We weren’t supposed to find allies but we did.
We weren’t supposed to grow communities but we did.
We weren’t supposed to return but WE ARE.
Amira Sakalla
Results
5pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 1,400m; Winner: Faiza, Sandro Paiva (jockey), Ali Rashid Al Raihe (trainer).
5.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh90,000 1,400m; Winner: Greeley, Connor Beasley, Helal Al Alawi.
6pm: Emirates Fillies Classic Prestige (PA) Dh100,000 1,600m; Winner: Marzaga, Jim Crowley, Ana Mendez.
6.30pm: Emirates Colts Classic Prestige (PA) Dh100,000 1,600m; Winner: Jawaal, Jim Crowley, Majed Al Jahouri.
7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 1,600m; Winner: AF Ashras, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel.
7.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 2,200m; Winner: Somoud, Richard Mullen, Ahmed Al Mehairbi.
The specs
Engine: 1.4-litre 4-cylinder turbo
Power: 180hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 250Nm at 3,00rpm
Transmission: 5-speed sequential auto
Price: From Dh139,995
On sale: now
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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The biog
Occupation: Key marker and auto electrician
Hometown: Ghazala, Syria
Date of arrival in Abu Dhabi: May 15, 1978
Family: 11 siblings, a wife, three sons and one daughter
Favourite place in UAE: Abu Dhabi
Favourite hobby: I like to do a mix of things, like listening to poetry for example.
Favourite Syrian artist: Sabah Fakhri, a tenor from Aleppo
Favourite food: fresh fish
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Star%20Wars%3A%20Episode%20I%20%E2%80%93%20The%20Phantom%20Menace
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Who are the Sacklers?
The Sackler family is a transatlantic dynasty that owns Purdue Pharma, which manufactures and markets OxyContin, one of the drugs at the centre of America's opioids crisis. The family is well known for their generous philanthropy towards the world's top cultural institutions, including Guggenheim Museum, the National Portrait Gallery, Tate in Britain, Yale University and the Serpentine Gallery, to name a few. Two branches of the family control Purdue Pharma.
Isaac Sackler and Sophie Greenberg were Jewish immigrants who arrived in New York before the First World War. They had three sons. The first, Arthur, died before OxyContin was invented. The second, Mortimer, who died aged 93 in 2010, was a former chief executive of Purdue Pharma. The third, Raymond, died aged 97 in 2017 and was also a former chief executive of Purdue Pharma.
It was Arthur, a psychiatrist and pharmaceutical marketeer, who started the family business dynasty. He and his brothers bought a small company called Purdue Frederick; among their first products were laxatives and prescription earwax remover.
Arthur's branch of the family has not been involved in Purdue for many years and his daughter, Elizabeth, has spoken out against it, saying the company's role in America's drugs crisis is "morally abhorrent".
The lawsuits that were brought by the attorneys general of New York and Massachussetts named eight Sacklers. This includes Kathe, Mortimer, Richard, Jonathan and Ilene Sackler Lefcourt, who are all the children of either Mortimer or Raymond. Then there's Theresa Sackler, who is Mortimer senior's widow; Beverly, Raymond's widow; and David Sackler, Raymond's grandson.
Members of the Sackler family are rarely seen in public.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The Matrix Resurrections
Director: Lana Wachowski
Stars: Keanu Reeves, Carrie-Anne Moss, Jessica Henwick
Rating:****
MATCH INFO
Sheffield United 0 Wolves 2 (Jimenez 3', Saiss 6)
Man of the Match Romain Saiss (Wolves)
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
TO ALL THE BOYS: ALWAYS AND FOREVER
Directed by: Michael Fimognari
Starring: Lana Condor and Noah Centineo
Two stars
Qosty Byogaani
Starring: Hani Razmzi, Maya Nasir and Hassan Hosny
Four stars
Thanksgiving meals to try
World Cut Steakhouse, Habtoor Palace Hotel, Dubai. On Thursday evening, head chef Diego Solis will be serving a high-end sounding four-course meal that features chestnut veloute with smoked duck breast, turkey roulade accompanied by winter vegetables and foie gras and pecan pie, cranberry compote and popcorn ice cream.
Jones the Grocer, various locations across the UAE. Jones’s take-home holiday menu delivers on the favourites: whole roast turkeys, an array of accompaniments (duck fat roast potatoes, sausages wrapped in beef bacon, honey-glazed parsnips and carrots) and more, as well as festive food platters, canapes and both apple and pumpkin pies.
Ruth’s Chris Steakhouse, The Address Hotel, Dubai. This New Orleans-style restaurant is keen to take the stress out of entertaining, so until December 25 you can order a full seasonal meal from its Takeaway Turkey Feast menu, which features turkey, homemade gravy and a selection of sides – think green beans with almond flakes, roasted Brussels sprouts, sweet potato casserole and bread stuffing – to pick up and eat at home.
The Mattar Farm Kitchen, Dubai. From now until Christmas, Hattem Mattar and his team will be producing game- changing smoked turkeys that you can enjoy at home over the festive period.
Nolu’s, The Galleria Mall, Maryah Island Abu Dhabi. With much of the menu focused on a California inspired “farm to table” approach (with Afghani influence), it only seems right that Nolu’s will be serving their take on the Thanksgiving spread, with a brunch at the Downtown location from 12pm to 4pm on Friday.
How much of your income do you need to save?
The more you save, the sooner you can retire. Tuan Phan, a board member of SimplyFI.com, says if you save just 5 per cent of your salary, you can expect to work for another 66 years before you are able to retire without too large a drop in income.
In other words, you will not save enough to retire comfortably. If you save 15 per cent, you can forward to another 43 working years. Up that to 40 per cent of your income, and your remaining working life drops to just 22 years. (see table)
Obviously, this is only a rough guide. How much you save will depend on variables, not least your salary and how much you already have in your pension pot. But it shows what you need to do to achieve financial independence.
Auron Mein Kahan Dum Tha
Starring: Ajay Devgn, Tabu, Shantanu Maheshwari, Jimmy Shergill, Saiee Manjrekar
Director: Neeraj Pandey
Rating: 2.5/5
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
'THE WORST THING YOU CAN EAT'
Trans fat is typically found in fried and baked goods, but you may be consuming more than you think.
Powdered coffee creamer, microwave popcorn and virtually anything processed with a crust is likely to contain it, as this guide from Mayo Clinic outlines:
Baked goods - Most cakes, cookies, pie crusts and crackers contain shortening, which is usually made from partially hydrogenated vegetable oil. Ready-made frosting is another source of trans fat.
Snacks - Potato, corn and tortilla chips often contain trans fat. And while popcorn can be a healthy snack, many types of packaged or microwave popcorn use trans fat to help cook or flavour the popcorn.
Fried food - Foods that require deep frying — french fries, doughnuts and fried chicken — can contain trans fat from the oil used in the cooking process.
Refrigerator dough - Products such as canned biscuits and cinnamon rolls often contain trans fat, as do frozen pizza crusts.
Creamer and margarine - Nondairy coffee creamer and stick margarines also may contain partially hydrogenated vegetable oils.
Aayan%E2%80%99s%20records
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MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League last 16, first leg
Liverpool v Bayern Munich, midnight, Wednesday, BeIN Sports
What sanctions would be reimposed?
Under ‘snapback’, measures imposed on Iran by the UN Security Council in six resolutions would be restored, including:
- An arms embargo
- A ban on uranium enrichment and reprocessing
- A ban on launches and other activities with ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, as well as ballistic missile technology transfer and technical assistance
- A targeted global asset freeze and travel ban on Iranian individuals and entities
- Authorisation for countries to inspect Iran Air Cargo and Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines cargoes for banned goods
Cultural fiesta
What: The Al Burda Festival
When: November 14 (from 10am)
Where: Warehouse421, Abu Dhabi
The Al Burda Festival is a celebration of Islamic art and culture, featuring talks, performances and exhibitions. Organised by the Ministry of Culture and Knowledge Development, this one-day event opens with a session on the future of Islamic art. With this in mind, it is followed by a number of workshops and “masterclass” sessions in everything from calligraphy and typography to geometry and the origins of Islamic design. There will also be discussions on subjects including ‘Who is the Audience for Islamic Art?’ and ‘New Markets for Islamic Design.’ A live performance from Kuwaiti guitarist Yousif Yaseen should be one of the highlights of the day.
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EOlivia%20Newman%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Daisy%20Edgar-Jones%2C%20Taylor%20John%20Smith%2C%20Harris%20Dickinson%2C%20David%20Strathairn%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The Intruder
Director: Deon Taylor
Starring: Dennis Quaid, Michael Ealy, Meagan Good
One star
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