As talks between Iran and the United States continue in the Austrian capital Vienna over Iran's nuclear programme, concerns are rising over how quickly the Tehran can create its first nuclear weapon.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Monday the "breakout time" could be cut to weeks if action isn't taken.
"It remains unclear whether Iran is willing and prepared to do what it needs to do come back into compliance," Mr Blinken told the US House of Representatives.
"Meanwhile, its programme is galloping forward. ... The longer this goes on, the more the breakout time gets down ... it's now down, by public reports, to a few months at best. And if this continues, it will get down to a matter of weeks," he added.
The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, known as the Iran nuclear deal, prevented Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Former US President Donald Trump withdrew from the deal in 2018, which involves Russia, France, Germany and the UK, because Iran's ballistic missiles programme was not addressed within the agreement.
Running out of 'breakout time'
The Institute of Science and International Security predicts a "worst case scenario" of 2.3 months for Iran to produce enough weapons grade uranium (WGU) for one nuclear weapon.
"Iran could produce a second significant quantity of WGU early in the fifth month after breakout commences, and a third quantity could be produced early in the seventh month," the institute said in a report on Monday.
This breakout time could have been even shorter had an incident involving a fire at Iran's Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP) on April 11 not occurred. Some Iranian officials cited sabotage as the reason behind the fire, although no official reason has been given.
Limited access to Iran's nuclear facilities has also resulted in the UN International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) nuclear watchdog not being able to give an accurate understanding of how far along Iran is towards creating its first nuclear weapon.
On Monday, the IAEA said inspections of Iran's nuclear facilities were becoming "increasingly difficult", after some IAEA inspections were suspended.
The agency then agreed to a three-month deal allowing it to continue inspections despite the reduced access.
Compliance and transparency
"I can see this space narrowing down," IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi told journalists in Vienna at the beginning of the quarterly meeting of the agency's board of governors.
But Mr Grossi was hopeful that the Vienna talks, if fruitful, could lead to better inspections.
He hoped that by a "wider general agreement that's being worked on downtown or by some other means, we are not going to see our... inspection capacities curtailed any more".
"We cannot limit and continue to curtail the ability of the inspectors to inspect and at the same time pretend that there is trust," he added.
The IAEA said that several of its questions on undeclared nuclear sites have gone unanswered by Iran.
Mr Grossi said his "expectations were not met" and that there had been no "concrete progress" on the issue, despite the Iranian authorities' stated willingness to co-operate.
"Talk must lead to conclusions," he said.
"For me the road to trust goes through information, clarification, inspections and full transparency," he added.
Iran said its diminishing cooperation with authorities was in retaliation to Mr Trump's withdrawal in 2018 and sanctions which have had a devastating impact on Iran's economy.
"We have a country that has a very developed and ambitious nuclear programme which is enriching at very high levels... very close to weapons grade," Mr Grossi said.
Iran's government spokesman Ali Rabiei said he hoped the discussions in Vienna would be concluded before the presidential election on June 18.
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Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
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Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
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