Global life expectancy is set to increase by almost five years by 2050, according to a new forecast.
The average lifespan is predicted to rise from 73.6 years in 2022 to 78.1 years in 2050.
But there are significant differences between men and women.
The average life expectancy for women will rise from 76.2 years in 2022 to 80.5 years in 2050, and for men from 71.1 years to 76 years, according to the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021.
However, people are also expected to spend more years in poor health, with a smaller increase in the time people will live well. The data shows global healthy life expectancy will increase from 64.8 years in 2022 to 67.4 years in 2050 – an increase of only 2.6 years.
It predicts the continuing shift from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) – such as cardiovascular diseases, cancer, and diabetes – and exposure to NCD-associated risk factors – such as obesity, high blood pressure, unhealthy diet, and smoking – will have the greatest effect on the impact of health issues for the next generation.
The five leading causes of disease in 2050 are predicted to be ischemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and neonatal disorders.
In the US, average life expectancy for women will rise from 80 years from 2021 to 82.4 in 2050, and from 74.3 years to 78.4 years for men.
In the UK, it will rise from 82.4 years to 85 in 2050, and from 78.2 years to 82.1 for men.
In the UAE, it will rise from 71.5 years to 73.2 for women, and from 77.5 years to 81.6 for men.
In Saudi Arabia, it will rise from 75.1 years to 78.3 for women, and from 71.8 years to 75.2 for men.
In Bahrain, it will rise from 75.1 years to 80 for women, and from 72.2 years to 79 for men.
In Oman, it will rise from 76.3 years to 82.6 for women, and from 70.5 years to 77.6 for men.
It comes as public health measures have prevented, and improved survival rates from, cardiovascular diseases, Covid-19, and a range of communicable (diseases that spread from one person to another), maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs), according to the report.
Dr Chris Murray, chairman of health metrics sciences at the University of Washington in the US, and director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), said: “In addition to an increase in life expectancy overall, we have found that the disparity in life expectancy across geographies will lessen.
“This is an indicator that while health inequalities between the highest and lowest income regions will remain, the gaps are shrinking, with the biggest increases anticipated in sub-Saharan Africa.”
Although global life expectancy is forecast to increase from 2022 to 2050, the improvement is at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the Covid-19 pandemic, the study found.
The findings build upon the results of the GBD 2021 risk factors study, also released on Thursday in The Lancet.
The research found that the total number of years lost due to poor health, and early death attributable to metabolic risk factors such as high blood pressure, high blood sugar, and high BMI, has increased by almost 50 per cent (49.4 per cent) since 2000.
The analysis based its estimates on 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021.
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Particulate matter air pollution, smoking, and low birthweight and short gestation were also among the largest contributors to lost years of healthy life due to poor health and early death in 2021, with considerable variation across ages, sexes and locations.
The study found that substantial progress was made between 2000 and 2021 in reducing disease attributable to risk factors linked to maternal and child health, unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing, as well as household air pollution from cooking with solid fuels.
Dr Emmanuela Gakidou, professor of health metrics sciences at the IHME, said: “Risk factors that currently lead to ill health, such as obesity and other components of metabolic syndrome, exposure to ambient particulate matter air pollution, and tobacco use, must be addressed via a combination of global health policy efforts and exposure reduction to mitigate health risks and improve population health.”
Dr Murray said: “There is immense opportunity ahead for us to influence the future of global health by getting ahead of these rising metabolic and dietary risk factors, particularly those related to behavioural and lifestyle factors like high blood sugar, high body mass index, and high blood pressure.”
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
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Weekend of August 10-13
Arsenal v Manchester City
Bournemouth v Cardiff City
Fulham v Crystal Palace
Huddersfield Town v Chelsea
Liverpool v West Ham United
Manchester United v Leicester City
Newcastle United v Tottenham Hotspur
Southampton v Burnley
Watford v Brighton & Hove Albion
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Four out of five stars
What vitamins do we know are beneficial for living in the UAE
Vitamin D: Highly relevant in the UAE due to limited sun exposure; supports bone health, immunity and mood.
Vitamin B12: Important for nerve health and energy production, especially for vegetarians, vegans and individuals with absorption issues.
Iron: Useful only when deficiency or anaemia is confirmed; helps reduce fatigue and support immunity.
Omega-3 (EPA/DHA): Supports heart health and reduces inflammation, especially for those who consume little fish.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
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Credit Score explained
What is a credit score?
In the UAE your credit score is a number generated by the Al Etihad Credit Bureau (AECB), which represents your credit worthiness – in other words, your risk of defaulting on any debt repayments. In this country, the number is between 300 and 900. A low score indicates a higher risk of default, while a high score indicates you are a lower risk.
Why is it important?
Financial institutions will use it to decide whether or not you are a credit risk. Those with better scores may also receive preferential interest rates or terms on products such as loans, credit cards and mortgages.
How is it calculated?
The AECB collects information on your payment behaviour from banks as well as utilitiy and telecoms providers.
How can I improve my score?
By paying your bills on time and not missing any repayments, particularly your loan, credit card and mortgage payments. It is also wise to limit the number of credit card and loan applications you make and to reduce your outstanding balances.
How do I know if my score is low or high?
By checking it. Visit one of AECB’s Customer Happiness Centres with an original and valid Emirates ID, passport copy and valid email address. Liv. customers can also access the score directly from the banking app.
How much does it cost?
A credit report costs Dh100 while a report with the score included costs Dh150. Those only wanting the credit score pay Dh60. VAT is payable on top.
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