Swarms of locusts have plagued farmers' crops in countries such as Uganda. Getty Images
Swarms of locusts have plagued farmers' crops in countries such as Uganda. Getty Images
Swarms of locusts have plagued farmers' crops in countries such as Uganda. Getty Images
Swarms of locusts have plagued farmers' crops in countries such as Uganda. Getty Images

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Scientists create new way to predict where locusts will next destroy crops

A swarm covering one square kilometre can consume enough food in a day to feed 35,000 people

Soraya Ebrahimi
Soraya Ebrahimi

December 19, 2024

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Weather data and state-of the-art computational models have enabled researchers at the University of Cambridge in England to discover a new method to predict where swarms of locusts will strike next, so they can be dealt with before the problem gets out of hand.

Desert locusts typically lead solitary lives until extreme forms of weather – such as intense rainfall – prompts them to swarm in vast numbers, often with devastating consequences.

The migratory pest can reach plague proportions and a swarm covering 1 sq km can consume enough food in only a day to feed 35,000 people. This extensive crop destruction pushes up food prices and can lead to riots and mass starvation.

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This new model predicts where swarms will go as they search for new feeding and breeding grounds. It takes into account the insects’ life cycle and can forecast locust swarm movements short and long term. The areas likely to be affected can then be sprayed with pesticides.

'Hit and miss'

Until now, predicting and controlling locust swarms has been ‘hit and miss’, the researchers said. The model, published on Thursday in the journal PLOS Computational Biology, will enable a quick response to a developing threat.

Desert locust control is a top priority for food security as it is the biggest migratory pest for smallholder farmers in many regions of Africa and Asia, capable of long-distance travel across national boundaries.

Climate change is expected to drive more frequent desert locust swarms, by causing trigger events such as cyclones and intense rain. These bring moisture to desert regions that allows plants to thrive, providing food for locusts that prompts breeding.

Locusts in Yemen - in pictures

Locusts swarm the sky over the Huthi rebel-held Yemeni capital Sanaa on July 28, 2019. / AFP / Mohammed HUWAIS
Locusts swarm the sky over the Huthi rebel-held Yemeni capital Sanaa on July 28, 2019. / AFP / Mohammed HUWAIS
A man tries to catch locusts while standing on a rooftop as they swarm over the Huthi rebel-held Yemeni capital Sanaa on July 28, 2019. / AFP / Mohammed HUWAIS
A man tries to catch locusts while standing on a rooftop as they swarm over the Huthi rebel-held Yemeni capital Sanaa on July 28, 2019. / AFP / Mohammed HUWAIS
A boy holds desert locusts caught while swarming the sky over the Huthi rebel-held Yemeni capital Sanaa on July 28, 2019. / AFP / Mohammed HUWAIS
A boy holds desert locusts caught while swarming the sky over the Huthi rebel-held Yemeni capital Sanaa on July 28, 2019. / AFP / Mohammed HUWAIS
TOPSHOT - Children try to catch locusts while standing on a rooftop as they swarm over the Huthi rebel-held Yemeni capital Sanaa on July 28, 2019. / AFP / Mohammed HUWAIS
TOPSHOT - Children try to catch locusts while standing on a rooftop as they swarm over the Huthi rebel-held Yemeni capital Sanaa on July 28, 2019. / AFP / Mohammed HUWAIS
Locusts swarm the sky over the Huthi rebel-held Yemeni capital Sanaa on July 28, 2019. / AFP / Mohammed HUWAIS
Locusts swarm the sky over the Huthi rebel-held Yemeni capital Sanaa on July 28, 2019. / AFP / Mohammed HUWAIS
Locusts swarm the sky over the Huthi-rebel-held Yemeni capital Sanaa on July 28, 2019. / AFP / Mohammed HUWAIS
Locusts swarm the sky over the Huthi-rebel-held Yemeni capital Sanaa on July 28, 2019. / AFP / Mohammed HUWAIS
A boy holds desert locusts caught while swarming the sky over the Huthi rebel-held Yemeni capital Sanaa on July 28, 2019. / AFP / Mohammed HUWAIS
A boy holds desert locusts caught while swarming the sky over the Huthi rebel-held Yemeni capital Sanaa on July 28, 2019. / AFP / Mohammed HUWAIS
A man tries to catch locusts while standing on a rooftop as they swarm over the Huthi rebel-held Yemeni capital Sanaa on July 28, 2019. / AFP / Mohammed HUWAIS
A man tries to catch locusts while standing on a rooftop as they swarm over the Huthi rebel-held Yemeni capital Sanaa on July 28, 2019. / AFP / Mohammed HUWAIS
epaselect epa07738624 Yemeni children seek to catch desert locusts flying over a neighborhood in Sana'a, Yemen, 24 July 2019. Swarms of desert locusts are spreading throughout several Yemen cities, including Sana'a. Traditionally, many Yemenis roast locusts and eat them. EPA/YAHYA ARHAB
epaselect epa07738624 Yemeni children seek to catch desert locusts flying over a neighborhood in Sana'a, Yemen, 24 July 2019. Swarms of desert locusts are spreading throughout several Yemen cities, including Sana'a. Traditionally, many Yemenis roast locusts and eat them. EPA/YAHYA ARHAB
epa07738627 A Yemeni girl attempts to catch desert locusts flying over a neighborhood in Sana'a, Yemen, 24 July 2019. Swarms of desert locusts are spreading throughout several Yemen cities, including Sana'a. Traditionally, many Yemenis roast locusts and eat them. EPA/YAHYA ARHAB
epa07738627 A Yemeni girl attempts to catch desert locusts flying over a neighborhood in Sana'a, Yemen, 24 July 2019. Swarms of desert locusts are spreading throughout several Yemen cities, including Sana'a. Traditionally, many Yemenis roast locusts and eat them. EPA/YAHYA ARHAB
epaselect epa07738621 A Yemeni child shows a desert locust in a plastic bottle as swarms of desert locusts fly over a neighborhood in Sana'a, Yemen, 24 July 2019. Swarms of desert locusts are spreading throughout several Yemen cities, including Sana'a. Traditionally, many Yemenis roast locusts and eat them. EPA/YAHYA ARHAB
epaselect epa07738621 A Yemeni child shows a desert locust in a plastic bottle as swarms of desert locusts fly over a neighborhood in Sana'a, Yemen, 24 July 2019. Swarms of desert locusts are spreading throughout several Yemen cities, including Sana'a. Traditionally, many Yemenis roast locusts and eat them. EPA/YAHYA ARHAB

“During a desert locust outbreak we can now predict where swarms will go several days in advance, so we can control them at particular sites,” said Dr Renata Retkute, researcher in the University of Cambridge’s department of plant sciences and first author of the paper. "And if they’re not controlled at those sites, we can predict where they’ll go next so preparations can be made there."

Prof Chris Gilligan, of the same department and senior author of the paper, added: “The important thing is to respond quickly if there’s likely to be a big locust upsurge before it causes a major crop loss. Huge swarms can lead to really desperate situations where people could starve.

“Our model will allow us to hit the ground running in future, rather than starting from scratch as has historically been the case."

Locusts in Kenya - in pictures

A farmer walks through a swarm of desert locust in the eastern Kenyan city of Meru. The infestations devastated 23 countries across East Africa, the Middle East and South Asia in 2020, with Kenya suffering its worst locust swarms in 70 years. AFP
A farmer walks through a swarm of desert locust in the eastern Kenyan city of Meru. The infestations devastated 23 countries across East Africa, the Middle East and South Asia in 2020, with Kenya suffering its worst locust swarms in 70 years. AFP
A swarm of desert locusts flies after an aircraft sprayed pesticide in the eastern Kenyan city of Meru. The UN's Food and Agricultural Organisation is working closely with several Kenyan agencies before teams are sent to targeted areas to spray pesticides to prevent damage to crops and grazing areas. AFP
A swarm of desert locusts flies after an aircraft sprayed pesticide in the eastern Kenyan city of Meru. The UN's Food and Agricultural Organisation is working closely with several Kenyan agencies before teams are sent to targeted areas to spray pesticides to prevent damage to crops and grazing areas. AFP
Cyril Ferrand, Team Leader for East Africa at the UN's Food and Agricultural Organisation walks past a swarm of desert locusts in the eastern Kenyan city of Meru. It has been more than a year since the worst desert locust infestation in decades hit the region. AFP
Cyril Ferrand, Team Leader for East Africa at the UN's Food and Agricultural Organisation walks past a swarm of desert locusts in the eastern Kenyan city of Meru. It has been more than a year since the worst desert locust infestation in decades hit the region. AFP
A local farmer walks through a swarm of desert locusts in the eastern Kenyan city of Meru. The East African country is battling another wave of infestations along with its neighbours Somalia and Ethiopia, the use of cutting-edge technology and improved co-ordination is helping to crush the menace. AFP
A local farmer walks through a swarm of desert locusts in the eastern Kenyan city of Meru. The East African country is battling another wave of infestations along with its neighbours Somalia and Ethiopia, the use of cutting-edge technology and improved co-ordination is helping to crush the menace. AFP
A swarm of desert locusts fly after an aircraft sprayed pesticide in the eastern Kenyan city of Meru. The use of cutting-edge technology and improved co-ordination across East Africa is helping to crush the ravenous swarms and protect the livelihoods of thousands of farmers. AFP
A swarm of desert locusts fly after an aircraft sprayed pesticide in the eastern Kenyan city of Meru. The use of cutting-edge technology and improved co-ordination across East Africa is helping to crush the ravenous swarms and protect the livelihoods of thousands of farmers. AFP
Locusts fly after an aircraft sprayed pesticide in the eastern Kenyan city of Meru. The country is suffering its worst locust swarms in 70 years. AFP
Locusts fly after an aircraft sprayed pesticide in the eastern Kenyan city of Meru. The country is suffering its worst locust swarms in 70 years. AFP
A farmer chases away desert locusts at maze field in the eastern Kenyan city of Meru. The country is suffering its worst locust swarms in 70 years. AFP
A farmer chases away desert locusts at maze field in the eastern Kenyan city of Meru. The country is suffering its worst locust swarms in 70 years. AFP
A swarm of desert locust flies after an aircraft sprayed pesticide in the eastern Kenyan city of Meru. Desert locusts belong to the grasshopper family, which form massive swarms when breeding is spurred by good rains. AFP
A swarm of desert locust flies after an aircraft sprayed pesticide in the eastern Kenyan city of Meru. Desert locusts belong to the grasshopper family, which form massive swarms when breeding is spurred by good rains. AFP
A farmer walks through a swarm of desert locust in the eastern Kenyan city of Meru. The use of cutting edge technology and improved co-ordination across East Africa is helping to crush the swarms and protect the livelihoods of thousands of farmers. AFP
A farmer walks through a swarm of desert locust in the eastern Kenyan city of Meru. The use of cutting edge technology and improved co-ordination across East Africa is helping to crush the swarms and protect the livelihoods of thousands of farmers. AFP
Desert locusts are seen at maze field in the eastern Kenyan city of Meru. A series of new measures to combat a second wave of the pests has improved control and co-operation in Kenya, Ethiopia and parts of Somalia. AFP
Desert locusts are seen at maze field in the eastern Kenyan city of Meru. A series of new measures to combat a second wave of the pests has improved control and co-operation in Kenya, Ethiopia and parts of Somalia. AFP
An aircraft sprays pesticide over the trees covered by desert locusts in eastern Kenyan city of Meru. Each locust eats its weight in vegetation daily and multiplies twenty-fold every three months. AFP
An aircraft sprays pesticide over the trees covered by desert locusts in eastern Kenyan city of Meru. Each locust eats its weight in vegetation daily and multiplies twenty-fold every three months. AFP
A pilot follows a swarm of desert locusts during a surveillance flight as farmers set fires to create smoke in their attempt to chase away the insects from fields in Meru, Kenya. AFP
A pilot follows a swarm of desert locusts during a surveillance flight as farmers set fires to create smoke in their attempt to chase away the insects from fields in Meru, Kenya. AFP

Kenya to India

The team noticed the need for a comprehensive model of desert locust behaviour during the response to a an upsurge over 2019-2021, which extended from Kenya to India and put huge strain on wheat production in these regions. Infestations destroyed sugar cane, sorghum, maize and root crops. The researchers say the scientific response was hampered by the need to gather and integrate information from disparate sources.

“The response to the last locust upsurge was very ad hoc and less efficient than it could have been,” said Dr Retkute. "We’ve created a comprehensive model that can be used next time to control this devastating pest."

The new model will inform surveillance, early warning, and management of desert locust swarms by national governments and international organisations such as the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation.

The researchers say countries that have not experienced a locust upsurge in many years are often ill-prepared to respond, lacking the necessary surveillance teams, aircraft and pesticides.

As climate change alters the movement and spread of major swarms, better planning is needed, making the new model a timely development, they added.

What is dialysis?

Dialysis is a way of cleaning your blood when your kidneys fail and can no longer do the job.

It gets rid of your body's wastes, extra salt and water, and helps to control your blood pressure. The main cause of kidney failure is diabetes and hypertension.

There are two kinds of dialysis — haemodialysis and peritoneal.

In haemodialysis, blood is pumped out of your body to an artificial kidney machine that filter your blood and returns it to your body by tubes.

In peritoneal dialysis, the inside lining of your own belly acts as a natural filter. Wastes are taken out by means of a cleansing fluid which is washed in and out of your belly in cycles.

It isn’t an option for everyone but if eligible, can be done at home by the patient or caregiver. This, as opposed to home haemodialysis, is covered by insurance in the UAE.

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

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Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

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Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

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The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDisplay%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%206.7%22%20Super%20Retina%20XDR%20OLED%2C%202796%20x%201290%2C%20460ppi%2C%20120Hz%2C%202000%20nits%20max%2C%20HDR%2C%20True%20Tone%2C%20P3%2C%20always-on%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EProcessor%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20A16%20Bionic%2C%206-core%20CPU%2C%205-core%20GPU%2C%2016-core%20Neural%20Engine%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMemory%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%206GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECapacity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20128%2F256%2F512GB%20%2F%201TB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPlatform%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20iOS%2016%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMain%20camera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Triple%2048MP%20main%20(f%2F1.78)%20%2B%2012MP%20ultra-wide%20(f%2F2.2)%20%2B%2012MP%20telephoto%20(f%2F2.8)%2C%206x%20optical%2C%2015x%20digital%2C%20Photonic%20Engine%2C%20Deep%20Fusion%2C%20Smart%20HDR%204%2C%20Portrait%20Lighting%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMain%20camera%20video%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204K%20%40%2024%2F25%2F30%2F60fps%2C%20full-HD%20%40%2025%2F30%2F60fps%2C%20HD%20%40%2030fps%2C%20slo-mo%20%40%20120%2F240fps%2C%20ProRes%20(4K)%20%40%2030fps%3B%20night%2C%20time%20lapse%2C%20cinematic%2C%20action%20modes%3B%20Dolby%20Vision%2C%204K%20HDR%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFront%20camera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2012MP%20TrueDepth%20(f%2F1.9)%2C%20Photonic%20Engine%2C%20Deep%20Fusion%2C%20Smart%20HDR%204%2C%20Portrait%20Lighting%3B%20Animoji%2C%20Memoji%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFront%20camera%20video%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%C2%A04K%20%40%2024%2F25%2F30%2F60fps%2C%20full-HD%20%40%2025%2F30%2F60fps%2C%20slo-mo%20%40%20120%2F240fps%2C%20ProRes%20(4K)%20%40%2030fps%3B%20night%2C%20time%20lapse%2C%20cinematic%2C%20action%20modes%3B%20Dolby%20Vision%2C%204K%20HDR%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204323mAh%2C%20up%20to%2029h%20video%2C%2025h%20streaming%20video%2C%2095h%20audio%3B%20fast%20charge%20to%2050%25%20in%2030min%3B%20MagSafe%2C%20Qi%20wireless%20charging%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EConnectivity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Wi-Fi%2C%20Bluetooth%205.3%2C%20NFC%20(Apple%20Pay)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBiometrics%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Face%20ID%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EI%2FO%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Lightning%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDurability%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20IP68%2C%20dust%2Fsplash%2Fwater%20resistant%20up%20to%206m%20up%20to%2030min%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECards%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dual%20eSIM%20%2F%20eSIM%20%2B%20eSIM%20(US%20models%20use%20eSIMs%20only)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EColours%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Deep%20purple%2C%20gold%2C%20silver%2C%20space%20black%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIn%20the%20box%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20iPhone%2014%20Pro%20Max%2C%20USB-C-to-Lightning%20cable%2C%20one%20Apple%20sticker%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dh4%2C699%20%2F%20Dh5%2C099%20%2F%20Dh5%2C949%20%2F%20Dh6%2C799%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Tom Fletcher on 'soft power'
Countdown to Zero exhibition will show how disease can be beaten

Countdown to Zero: Defeating Disease, an international multimedia exhibition created by the American Museum of National History in collaboration with The Carter Center, will open in Abu Dhabi a  month before Reaching the Last Mile.

Opening on October 15 and running until November 15, the free exhibition opens at The Galleria mall on Al Maryah Island, and has already been seen at the Jimmy Carter Presidential Library and Museum in Atlanta, the American Museum of Natural History in New York, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

 

About Okadoc

Date started: Okadoc, 2018

Founder/CEO: Fodhil Benturquia

Based: Dubai, UAE

Sector: Healthcare

Size: (employees/revenue) 40 staff; undisclosed revenues recording “double-digit” monthly growth

Funding stage: Series B fundraising round to conclude in February

Investors: Undisclosed

'Cheb%20Khaled'
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EArtist%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EKhaled%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ELabel%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EBelieve%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The President's Cake

Director: Hasan Hadi

Starring: Baneen Ahmad Nayyef, Waheed Thabet Khreibat, Sajad Mohamad Qasem 

Rating: 4/5

While you're here
It Was Just an Accident

Director: Jafar Panahi

Stars: Vahid Mobasseri, Mariam Afshari, Ebrahim Azizi, Hadis Pakbaten, Majid Panahi, Mohamad Ali Elyasmehr

Rating: 4/5

UK’s AI plan
  • AI ambassadors such as MIT economist Simon Johnson, Monzo cofounder Tom Blomfield and Google DeepMind’s Raia Hadsell
  • £10bn AI growth zone in South Wales to create 5,000 jobs
  • £100m of government support for startups building AI hardware products
  • £250m to train new AI models
THE SPECS

Engine: 1.5-litre turbocharged four-cylinder

Transmission: Constant Variable (CVT)

Power: 141bhp 

Torque: 250Nm 

Price: Dh64,500

On sale: Now

The 100 Best Novels in Translation
Boyd Tonkin, Galileo Press

Globalization and its Discontents Revisited
Joseph E. Stiglitz
W. W. Norton & Company

Updated: December 19, 2024, 7:00 PM
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