Two weeks after a deadly attack on tourists in Kashmir, India says it has conducted air strikes on what it called “terrorist camps” in neighbouring Pakistan, while Pakistan says it shot down five Indian planes in retaliation.
The two nations have been at loggerheads since their violent and bloody partition after independence from Britain in 1947.
Tensions have occasionally boiled over into armed conflict. The main focus of the rivalry is Kashmir, an area of the Himalayas that both India and Pakistan claim in its entirety while governing separate parts.
Why do India and Pakistan distrust each other?
At independence, the countries were split along religious lines, with Pakistan becoming predominantly Muslim and India choosing secular democracy for its mostly Hindu population. The drawing of new borders by the British uprooted almost 14 million people and resulted in sectarian violence that killed as many as one million people.
India and Pakistan have fought wars since then, two of them over Kashmir, with scores of skirmishes in between. Pakistan’s leaders have seen India as an existential threat since partition; some think India still harbours hopes of reversing the split.
Indian intelligence services have linked a succession of terrorist attacks carried out between 2001 and 2019 to Pakistan. Former Pakistan prime minister Imran Khan vowed to curb militant groups, but failed. The country’s civilian leaders have little power to shape foreign and security policy, which is largely the preserve of the army and Inter-Services Intelligence spy agency.
Why is Kashmir a flashpoint?
At the time of partition, India and Pakistan courted the subcontinent’s various kingdoms, which were only indirectly ruled by the British, to join their fledgling nations. The Hindu ruler of Muslim-majority Jammu and Kashmir, a region about the size of the UK and with a population of about 12 million today, dithered. Pakistan sponsored an invasion by irregular fighters, India intervened and the two countries fought to a stalemate.
Today, they face off along a 740km de facto boundary known as the Line of Control, one of the world’s most militarised zones. The region also includes two areas that are controlled by China and claimed by India.
New Delhi accuses Islamabad of sponsoring militants who are active in Kashmir, while Pakistan says India’s government mistreats Kashmir’s Muslims, and has described the militants as freedom fighters. India’s government says they have been trained and funded by Pakistan’s military, and that their leaders continue to live freely in Pakistan.
In 2019, New Delhi moved to tighten its control over Kashmir by revoking constitutional guarantees and flooding the region with more soldiers. In recent years, the area known for its dramatic mountain landscapes and lush valleys has become popular with tourists again.
How did the Kashmir attack alter the situation?
Within 14 hours of the Kashmir attack on April 22, India had downgraded diplomatic ties with Pakistan, while Pakistan had banned Indian planes from its airspace and halted cross-border trade.
The closure of Pakistan’s airspace is forcing Indian airlines to take long detours for flights heading west, increasing their operating costs. Visitor numbers to Kashmir are likely to fall.
In a more worrying development, India suspended a crucial water-sharing pact, the Indus Waters Treaty, which could have a serious impact on Pakistan in the long term.
The treaty governs the distribution of water from six rivers flowing from the Himalayas that are major sources for irrigating fertile land and generating electricity in both countries. It took almost a decade to formalise in the 1960s, with the World Bank acting as a mediator. The treaty gives the two nations the use of three rivers each, and provides a detailed map on how either country may or may not use the other’s resources.
How likely is war?
A full-scale war on multiple fronts would break with decades of precedent. Both countries’ governments are aware of the dangers of escalation, and world powers have in the past convinced them to back away from hostilities, aware of the risk that either side might reach for its nuclear missiles.
Thousands were killed in the wars of 1947 and 1965, while conflicts since then have been more contained. Fighting in Kashmir’s Kargil region in 1999 ended after less than three months following intense pressure on Pakistan by the US and a threat to withdraw International Monetary Fund loans to Islamabad.
Flare-ups in recent years have been even more short-lived. In 2019, India launched air strikes within Pakistan’s borders for the first time in decades and, even after an aerial fight, both countries de-escalated tension swiftly.
A substantial rapprochement between the two nations appears unlikely. India’s stance on Pakistan has become more intransigent under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, a Hindu nationalist, and India has said it will start peace talks only if Pakistan cracks down on militant groups within its borders.
Even if Pakistan’s civilian government wanted to bury hostilities, it would first need to win over a military establishment that has consistently spurned any such move.
Agencies contributed to this report
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
FIXTURES
Thu Mar 15 – West Indies v Afghanistan, UAE v Scotland
Fri Mar 16 – Ireland v Zimbabwe
Sun Mar 18 – Ireland v Scotland
Mon Mar 19 – West Indies v Zimbabwe
Tue Mar 20 – UAE v Afghanistan
Wed Mar 21 – West Indies v Scotland
Thu Mar 22 – UAE v Zimbabwe
Fri Mar 23 – Ireland v Afghanistan
The top two teams qualify for the World Cup
Classification matches
The top-placed side out of Papua New Guinea, Hong Kong or Nepal will be granted one-day international status. UAE and Scotland have already won ODI status, having qualified for the Super Six.
Thu Mar 15 – Netherlands v Hong Kong, PNG v Nepal
Sat Mar 17 – 7th-8th place playoff, 9th-10th place play-off
Awar Qalb
Director: Jamal Salem
Starring: Abdulla Zaid, Joma Ali, Neven Madi and Khadija Sleiman
Two stars
Results
4pm: Al Bastakiya – Listed (TB) $150,000 (Dirt) 1,900m; Winner: Panadol, Mickael Barzalona (jockey), Salem bin Ghadayer (trainer)
4.35pm: Dubai City Of Gold – Group 2 (TB) $228,000 (Turf) 2,410m; Winner: Walton Street, William Buick, Charlie Appleby
5.10pm: Mahab Al Shimaal – Group 3 (TB) $228,000 (D) 1,200m; Winner: Canvassed, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson
5.45pm: Burj Nahaar – Group 3 (TB) $228,000 (D) 1,600m; Winner: Midnight Sands, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson
6.20pm: Jebel Hatta – Group 1 (TB) $260,000 (T) 1,800m; Winner: Lord Glitters, Daniel Tudhope, David O’Meara
6.55pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 – Group 1 (TB) $390,000 (D) 2,000m; Winner: Salute The Soldier, Adrie de Vries, Fawzi Nass
7.30pm: Nad Al Sheba – Group 3 (TB) $228,000 (T) 1,200m; Winner: Final Song, Frankie Dettori, Saeed bin Suroor
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Director: Scott Cooper
Starring: Jeremy Allen White, Odessa Young, Jeremy Strong
Rating: 4/5
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPowertrain%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESingle%20electric%20motor%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E201hp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E310Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESingle-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E53kWh%20lithium-ion%20battery%20pack%20(GS%20base%20model)%3B%2070kWh%20battery%20pack%20(GF)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETouring%20range%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E350km%20(GS)%3B%20480km%20(GF)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh129%2C900%20(GS)%3B%20Dh149%2C000%20(GF)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE jiu-jitsu squad
Men: Hamad Nawad and Khalid Al Balushi (56kg), Omar Al Fadhli and Saeed Al Mazroui (62kg), Taleb Al Kirbi and Humaid Al Kaabi (69kg), Mohammed Al Qubaisi and Saud Al Hammadi (70kg), Khalfan Belhol and Mohammad Haitham Radhi (85kg), Faisal Al Ketbi and Zayed Al Kaabi (94kg)
Women: Wadima Al Yafei and Mahra Al Hanaei (49kg), Bashayer Al Matrooshi and Hessa Al Shamsi (62kg)
