Emmanuel Macron's push for Palestinian statehood impeded by escalating Israeli aggression

French President Emmanuel Macron's hopes for a landmark global summit promoting recognition of Palestinian statehood are being tested by the intensifying Israeli offensive in Gaza.

The French leader has seized the diplomatic potential of an upcoming conference in New York, co-hosted with Saudi Arabia, to both broaden recognition of Palestine and strengthen backing for the Arab League’s Gaza reconstruction plan.

French diplomats initially hoped for progress on Arab nations, particularly Saudi Arabia, establishing ties with Israel, but now they temper expectations, speaking only of efforts to secure “signals” from the most obvious candidate among Arab states. France had also hoped G7 nations such as Canada or the UK would announce a co-ordinated position on recognising Palestine, but none have publicly committed to doing so.

The summit preparations coincide with a deteriorating humanitarian situation in Gaza after Israel imposed a total blockade. On Monday, Israel launched a new military offensive to hold territory in the embattled enclave.

Since the Hamas-led attacks on October 7, 2023, that killed about 1,200 Israelis, Israel’s retaliatory campaign has killed more than 52,500 people in Gaza. In parallel, prospects for a Palestinian state appear increasingly bleak as Israeli ministers openly discuss the potential annexation of parts of the occupied West Bank.

Those close to French diplomatic efforts warn the challenge Mr Macron has taken on is increasingly an uphill battle.

“It's a good thing that France is investing political capital in the crisis,” said Laure Foucher, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Strategic Research in Paris. “But Macron is so focused on achieving a diplomatic coup that he is basing his initiative on several wrong assessments, ignoring the reality on the ground.”

Ofer Bronchtein, a Franco-Israeli activist with Palestinian citizenship who advises the president, remains optimistic that the “June initiative” can work if there is a ceasefire, a move towards the unimpeded flow of humanitarian aid and the release of Israeli hostages.

France's partners need a rallying point, according to Mr Bronchtein. “Macron talked about a collective effort by European countries that haven’t yet recognised Palestine, by non-Europeans, by Americans, and by Arab and Muslim states. That’s the collective effort.”

The conference's mandate derives from a UN General Assembly resolution adopted in September that endorsed an advisory opinion published by the International Court of Justice in July on the illegality of the Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories. It is designed to pull together divergent parts of the UN even as questions over its potential impact grow.

“It would be meaningless to hold a conference that is just about statements and has no impact on the Gaza war and violence in the West Bank,” said Yoav Shemer-Kunz, a professor of political science at Strasbourg University in France and Syracuse University in the US.

Michel Duclos, a former French ambassador to the UN, wrote in a recent op-ed published by the think tank Institut Montaigne that: “The challenge for France lies not only in the Israeli-Palestinian affair but also in its capacity to serve as a bridge between the West and the South.”

There is an awareness in Paris that the real power broker is the US, which, under former president Joe Biden, had reportedly been negotiating a defence pact with Saudi Arabia in return for normalisation with Israel. During his visit to Riyadh next week, US President Donald Trump is expected to discuss a weapons package worth more than $100 billion. It remains unclear whether it will be linked to establishing diplomatic ties with the Israeli government.

Tragic situation

Despite the bleak context, some close to Mr Macron remain hopeful. “I remain confident despite the tragic situation,” said Mr Bronchtein.

As a permanent member of the UN Security Council that is deeply involved in the Middle East, France sees an opportunity to shape the longer-term peace process that emerges from the conflict.

Mr Bronchtein, who has been advising Mr Macron since 2020 and says his role, though unpaid, has provided a direct channel to the president, has floated several ideas. One is a proposal to relocate some Gazans for three to five years to Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula during a postwar reconstruction phase.

Mr Bronchtein's blueprint rests on an idea repeatedly rejected by Egypt, but he believes a change of heart could be secured in exchange for debt relief for Cairo. Another part of his ideas rests on Gaza reconstruction financed with funds derived from taxes on oil and gas transactions.

“I haven’t asked them [oil and gas producers] for their opinion. It’s my idea,” said Mr Bronchtein, who also suggested taxing weapons sales in the Middle East. Asked how Mr Macron responded, Mr Bronchtein replied: “He said he would study it.”

Fantasy thinking

A self-described “atypical” figure, Mr Bronchtein said Mr Macron’s diplomatic entourage dislike him because he has no diplomatic training. Critics say his ideas are detached from reality.

“It’s pure fantasy to talk about temporary displacement,” Ms Foucher said. “If Gazans are forced to leave, it will never be up to them to decide whether they can return or not. Palestinians will never have the freedom to decide who enters Gaza or the West Bank as long as they don't have a state.” Contacted by The National, both the Elysee Palace and the Foreign Ministry declined to comment on Mr Bronchtein’s proposals.

Contentious plans

The issue of even short-term displacement is deeply contentious. For many Palestinians, it evokes historical trauma and raises fears of permanent expulsion – particularly amid past threats from Mr Trump and far-right Israeli officials to forcibly relocate Gaza’s population of more than two million. Israel has a long history of blocking the return of Palestinians displaced by war.

Cairo has consistently rejected reports that it would accept large numbers of displaced Gazans. In April, Egypt’s State Information Service dismissed media claims it was considering hosting up to 500,000 people in northern Sinai, reiterating its “absolute and final rejection of any attempt to displace Palestinians”. The Arab League’s Gaza reconstruction plan, adopted in Cairo in March, made no mention of displacement.

Israel's role

Mr Bronchtein's suggestions that Israel would not be required to formally recognise a Palestinian state, but under the French plan acknowledge the situation, could be a way forward. “It’s not a stupid idea,” he said. With Mr Netanyahu reliant on a hardline coalition staunchly opposed to a Palestinian state, Mr Bronchtein sees Israel's position as dependent on legislative elections next year.

Mr Macron taking on more radical ideas cannot be ruled out. The President often makes foreign policy decisions unilaterally, sometimes blindsiding his own government. His April 9 announcement that France would recognise a Palestinian state in June surprised many at the Foreign Ministry, The National understands.

Tensions within French diplomatic circles have simmered since November 2023, when a leaked memo from Middle East ambassadors revealed discontent over Mr Macron’s perceived pro-Israel bias. Whether his upcoming peace initiative will reset France’s approach – or further complicate it – remains to be seen.

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