An ISIS terror campaign across Europe, Russia and the Middle East is expected to follow the Moscow massacre as “one attack is not enough”, security experts have told The National.
Extremists from ISIS-Khorasan Province (ISIS-K) who killed 137 people in the Crocus City Hall attack were highly likely to have been acting under orders from the group's central commanders based in the Middle East.
With the likelihood of the attack raising more funds and recruits, the Islamic extremist group will probably launch more assaults to demonstrate that it is no longer a spent force, analysts have said.
Western security agencies are on high alert for more potential attacks, especially in France, Sweden and the Netherlands.
ISIS changes tack
Following the March 22 attack in Russia and the arrests of four Tajik gunmen, attention has been focused on the apparent resurgence of ISIS-K, based in Central Asia.
But terror expert Antonio Giustozzi told The National that the orders for the attack almost certainly came from ISIS commanders currently sheltering in Syria, Iraq or Turkey.
“ISIS-Khorasan had a support role but it was the central leadership which gave the orders to do this,” said the analyst at the Rusi think tank.
“They realised that they are in terminal decline, they have no ‘caliphate’, and an image problem of defeats and losses so they are trying to change the narrative.”
The focus now is on more high-profile attacks that will attract the tens of millions of dollars the group needs to fund its campaign.
“That is why they needed to innovate with a target like Moscow, to show that ‘we are still relevant’ and public enemy number one,” Dr Giustozzi said.
Target Europe
The graphic imagery from the Moscow attack is highly likely to influence young men to join ISIS's ranks and prepare for an attack in Europe, which has not witnessed a major atrocity since the Paris attacks in 2015.
But with anti-immigrant right-wing Islamophobic political parties gaining power in several countries, there are vulnerabilities that ISIS can prey on.
“The problem after a big attack like this succeeds is others get inspired to do it, including lone-wolf types, with a surge in the recruitment space,” a British security official said.
Western intelligence agencies have “raised the ISIS threat one of the biggest concerns out there”, he added, as the group's classic strategy is to “generate interreligious conflict”.
Dr Giustozzi pointed to France and the Netherlands as likely targets because of the “strong tensions between the communities” and “Islamophobic sentiments”.
In November last year, the anti-Muslim PVV party won the most seats in the Dutch Parliament. It leader, Geert Wilders, has previously promised to shutter mosques and ban the publication of the Quran.
A provocative ISIS attack, like striking a church service, “could create the reaction from the hard right like burning a mosque”, said Dr Giustozzi.
“Their aim is surviving via a campaign of terrorist attacks showing that they are not finished and can do things that nobody else can,” added Dr Giustozzi, who is the author of several works on the extremist group.
“To raise the money they need, ISIS require a big project and one attack is not enough.”
Khorasan role
Ever since its defeat in Syria in 2019, ISIS has been forced underground, but Moscow, alongside several less prominent attacks in recent years, demonstrated that it has not disappeared.
The US, in particular, remains focused on destroying its leadership in Syria, Iraq and Turkey. This has forced ISIS to use its affiliates in Khorasan – a historical region that today is largely made up of Afghanistan, Iran and Turkmenistan – to carry out attacks.
“It is more practical to do it from mountains of Afghanistan than from the desert of Syria,” said Dr Giustozzi.
“Khorasan also has a lot of Central Asians, who can handle day-to-day management of cells in Russia, Europe and Asia. It is a large organisation to manage.”
It is understood that there is a tacit agreement between the US and the Taliban that their drones can overfly Afghanistan but cannot bomb, even if they have ISIS-K commanders in their sights.
But they are able to gain valuable “signals intelligence” from ISIS-K, which had been passed on to the Russians before the Moscow attack, and previously to Iran before the bombing in January in which 100 people were killed at a memorial event for Iranian commander Qassem Suleimani.
However, given the distrust between the nations, the warnings were largely ignored.
Russia return
Given ISIS's success in Russia and the antagonism Central Asians feel towards President Vladimir Putin’s regime, analysts predict a rise in attacks there.
This could be stoked by Russia, where 10 per cent of the population is Muslim, rounding up and abusing suspected extremists.
“The consequence is that the Russians overreact or that others get inspired and radicalised,” the British official said.
“ISIS have been trying to do this in Russia for a long time and this one got through.”
The extremist group's propaganda also uses Mr Putin’s war in Chechnya and his strong relationship with Tajikistan’s leader Emomali Rahmon as well as his support for Syria’s President Bashar Al Assad as evidence of Moscow’s anti-Muslim stance.
But there is also a chance of an ISIS resurgence in the Middle East if the Israel-Gaza war spreads.
“ISIS operations have diversified into Africa and now Asia but the Middle East has meaning for them in a way that their other areas don’t,” said a former counter-terrorism analyst.
“They will never give up trying to establish an Islamic caliphate in the Middle East so it is key that the region does not spiral into war again as conflict and chaos is what ISIS thrives on.”
Paatal Lok season two
Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy
Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong
Rating: 4.5/5
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Director: James Cameron
Starring: Sam Worthington, Sigourney Weaver, Zoe Saldana
Rating: 4.5/5
How will Gen Alpha invest?
Mark Chahwan, co-founder and chief executive of robo-advisory firm Sarwa, forecasts that Generation Alpha (born between 2010 and 2024) will start investing in their teenage years and therefore benefit from compound interest.
“Technology and education should be the main drivers to make this happen, whether it’s investing in a few clicks or their schools/parents stepping up their personal finance education skills,” he adds.
Mr Chahwan says younger generations have a higher capacity to take on risk, but for some their appetite can be more cautious because they are investing for the first time. “Schools still do not teach personal finance and stock market investing, so a lot of the learning journey can feel daunting and intimidating,” he says.
He advises millennials to not always start with an aggressive portfolio even if they can afford to take risks. “We always advise to work your way up to your risk capacity, that way you experience volatility and get used to it. Given the higher risk capacity for the younger generations, stocks are a favourite,” says Mr Chahwan.
Highlighting the role technology has played in encouraging millennials and Gen Z to invest, he says: “They were often excluded, but with lower account minimums ... a customer with $1,000 [Dh3,672] in their account has their money working for them just as hard as the portfolio of a high get-worth individual.”
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MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid
When: April 25, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Allianz Arena, Munich
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 1, Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid
Nepotism is the name of the game
Salman Khan’s father, Salim Khan, is one of Bollywood’s most legendary screenwriters. Through his partnership with co-writer Javed Akhtar, Salim is credited with having paved the path for the Indian film industry’s blockbuster format in the 1970s. Something his son now rules the roost of. More importantly, the Salim-Javed duo also created the persona of the “angry young man” for Bollywood megastar Amitabh Bachchan in the 1970s, reflecting the angst of the average Indian. In choosing to be the ordinary man’s “hero” as opposed to a thespian in new Bollywood, Salman Khan remains tightly linked to his father’s oeuvre. Thanks dad.
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UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)
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Spare
Profile
Company name: Spare
Started: March 2018
Co-founders: Dalal Alrayes and Saurabh Shah
Based: UAE
Sector: FinTech
Investment: Own savings. Going for first round of fund-raising in March 2019
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MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League, last 16, first leg
Tottenham Hotspur v Borussia Dortmund, midnight (Thursday), BeIN Sports
THE BIO
Favourite car: Koenigsegg Agera RS or Renault Trezor concept car.
Favourite book: I Am Pilgrim by Terry Hayes or Red Notice by Bill Browder.
Biggest inspiration: My husband Nik. He really got me through a lot with his positivity.
Favourite holiday destination: Being at home in Australia, as I travel all over the world for work. It’s great to just hang out with my husband and family.
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylinder turbo
Power: 240hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 390Nm at 3,000rpm
Transmission: eight-speed auto
Price: from Dh122,745
On sale: now
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
What is graphene?
Graphene is a single layer of carbon atoms arranged like honeycomb.
It was discovered in 2004, when Russian-born Manchester scientists Andrei Geim and Kostya Novoselov were "playing about" with sticky tape and graphite - the material used as "lead" in pencils.
Placing the tape on the graphite and peeling it, they managed to rip off thin flakes of carbon. In the beginning they got flakes consisting of many layers of graphene. But as they repeated the process many times, the flakes got thinner.
By separating the graphite fragments repeatedly, they managed to create flakes that were just one atom thick. Their experiment had led to graphene being isolated for the very first time.
At the time, many believed it was impossible for such thin crystalline materials to be stable. But examined under a microscope, the material remained stable, and when tested was found to have incredible properties.
It is many times times stronger than steel, yet incredibly lightweight and flexible. It is electrically and thermally conductive but also transparent. The world's first 2D material, it is one million times thinner than the diameter of a single human hair.
But the 'sticky tape' method would not work on an industrial scale. Since then, scientists have been working on manufacturing graphene, to make use of its incredible properties.
In 2010, Geim and Novoselov were awarded the Nobel Prize for Physics. Their discovery meant physicists could study a new class of two-dimensional materials with unique properties.
