Donald Trump could allow Ukraine to “take the gloves off” in order to defeat Russia once he enters office, a US general has told The National.
The incoming president would send a strong message to China and other adversaries that America was willing use its power to achieve results, retired Gen Ben Hodges said.
Mr Trump has vowed that he would end the Ukraine conflict “in one day” but may well use his powers of coercion to bring an end to the three-year war in a longer time period.
“He could take the gloves off, let Ukraine use whatever they get, without any restriction from us and [show] that the United States has committed to them winning,” said Gen Hodges, who commanded US forces in Europe.
Mr Trump now has “a lot more leverage now than he did eight years ago” over President Vladimir Putin, as the Russian leader is “politically weaker and economically in big trouble”, said the officer.
The war has been a “catastrophe” for Russia, that has also indirectly led to the loss of Moscow's Syrian ally, former president Bashar Al Assad, whereas Mr Trump is politically in a strong position and will inherit a thriving US economy, said Gen Hodges.
Britain’s continued support for Ukraine was emphasised by UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer arriving in Kyiv on Thursday, his first visit to the country as Britain's leader. He announced a “100-year partnership” between the countries.
The British leader reaffirmed his country’s alliance just days before Mr Trump takes office with the threat to axe US military aid to Kyiv.
“This is not just about the here and now, it is also about an investment in our two countries for the next century,” said Mr Starmer, emphasising partnerships in technology, science, culture and the wartime “phenomenal innovation” shown by Ukraine.
Front line warfare
Despite Russia making some modest advances in the last year – albeit at a huge cost, with potentially up to 300,000 dead and wounded, according to some sources – there are suggestions that both its military and economy are heading towards a crisis.
Despite several counter-attacks and the introduction of 12,000 North Korean troops, Moscow has still been unable to push Ukrainian forces out of 600 square kilometres of Russia’s Kursk province that they seized in August last year.
But Kyiv’s army is also under pressure, struggling to recruit enough troops to defend the 1,000km front line and still lacks sufficient firepower or numbers to launch a significant offensive.
However, it has demonstrated its increasingly capable air power with a significant blitz on Tuesday that saw 200 drones and several Storm Shadow cruise missiles strike targets up to 1,000km into Russia, including ammunition dumps, arms factories and oil and gas sites.
That firepower capability may well impress Mr Trump, said Gen Hodges. Although the incoming president will initially explore some compromise talks, if the Russians refuse to negotiate further, then he might take an entirely different approach, said the officer.
“He could say, ‘Vladimir, bad luck for you, but it’s in America’s interests that Ukraine is successful’,” said Gen Hodges. “Especially as the Chinese are watching, and we want the Chinese to see that we are serious about deterring them and so we're going to help Ukraine defeat Russia.”
While Mr Trump paid little attention to the international rules-based order, he did believe in “power and coercion” that he could use in Ukraine “with an eye towards influencing China's behaviour”, added the officer.
Not panicking
President Joe Biden has overseen a huge financial and military package to Kyiv. By the end of last year, US Congress had approved $175 billion in total assistance for Ukraine since Russia's invasion in February 2022, according to non-partisan non-profit organisation the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
However, there has been some criticism of restrictions on the use of weapons supplied as part of this package – particularly the HIMARS precision rockets and Storm Shadow cruise missiles. It was not until November that Washington authorised for these to be fired into Russian territory.
While that “kept Ukraine in the fight”, it was “never going to help them defeat Russia”, said Gen Hodges. “So, I don't get the sense that they're panicking about the arrival of the Trump administration.”
Kyiv also took comfort in the large number of Republicans in Congress who were “very pro-Ukraine, pro-Europe and pro-Nato”, he added.
Furthermore, there was $2 billion of US military aid already authorised by Congress that could give him further leverage. Mr Trump could potentially tell the Kremlin that “I'm going to open the gates and let them have what's already been approved without restriction”, said Gen Hodges.
Both suffering
Another issue for Mr Putin is that Gen Keith Kellogg, Mr Trump’s special envoy for the conflict, did not trust the Russians which was “a good starting point for any negotiation with them”, said Gen Hodges.
“He also talks about the importance of Ukrainian sovereignty, and that's important,” he added.
But Gen Hodges warned that the Ukrainians too have their own problems. While its defence industry is massively increasing capability, there is a “serious shortage of troops, but not a shortage of people,” said the officer, a veteran of Iraq and Afghanistan.
“They have to regain the confidence of Ukrainian families so that they will trust their son or daughter will not be wasted on the battlefield.”
But holding back the might of the Russian army for three years has demonstrated that the invaders were not invincible “and neither is defeat for Ukraine inevitable”, said Gen Hodges.
That was demonstrated by reports that Russia has lost 9,000 armoured vehicles in the last year and is having to resort to using golf carts and motorbikes on the battlefield.
“That illustrates to me just how stretched Russia is,” the officer said. “And they did not even have the ability to save their friend Bashar Al Assad in Syria.
“So, unless Trump just completely pulls the plug and does things that are harmful to Ukraine, the country will still very much be standing at the end of this year.”
Ultimately Russia “does not control how this is going to end”, Gen Hodges concluded, and suggested that it could be militarily defeated by the end of 2025.
