France, Germany and the UK on Thursday triggered an unprecedented UN procedure to reinstate sanctions on Iran, which they deem in breach of a nuclear deal.
Six pre-existing but mothballed UN sanctions resolutions would come back into force for the first time since 2018 under the procedure.
"Iran's nuclear escalation must not go any further," French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot wrote on X on Thursday.
Collectively known as the E3, France, Germany and the UK made their decision after informing US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in a call on Wednesday. Mr Rubio welcomed the move, saying the three countries had laid out a clear case of Tehran's “significant non-performance" of its nuclear commitments, but said the US remains available for direct engagement with Iran.
A UK official said “we cannot allow the Iran nuclear file to fall off the agenda or for sanctions to be permanently lifted while Iran's programme escalates”, as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is denied access to inspect Iranian nuclear sites, “in clear violation of Iran's legal obligations”.
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who was warned in a phone call an hour before the decision, said Iran "will respond appropriately to this illegal and unjustified action", Tasnim news agency reported. But he said later that Iran was ready to resume "fair and balanced" negotiations if the West shows goodwill, in a letter sent to EU foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas.
Iran's Foreign Ministry called the move by the European countries "provocative" and said it would undermine co-operation with the IAEA. It warned it would be met with "appropriate responses", state news agency Irna reported.
Deadline
Under the 2015 agreement known as the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), sanctions against Iran were suspended but could be reimposed if participants believe Tehran is not sticking to the deal to limit its nuclear programme.
Late August was the deadline for the countries to give 30 days' notice of the decision to reimpose UN sanctions, known as snapback and widely described as their only leverage to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. The deal expires on October 18.
However, it is not the end of diplomacy. Europeans have signalled that last-minute talks with Iran are still possible in the 30-day window that has now opened before sanctions would kick in.
"Will it be easy? Honestly no. Iranians will probably be tempted to escalate," a French diplomat said. "At the same time, they have always come back to the negotiation table. The worst-case scenario is not the most obvious."
What happens now?
The UN Security Council must now vote within 30 days on a resolution to continue to suspend sanctions on Iran.
The E3's position means the resolution is destined to fail because it would require at least nine votes in favour and no vetoes by the US, Russia, China, Britain, or France to pass.
The E3 has already suggested a six-month extension of UN resolution 2231, which endorsed the JCPOA, during which they would be able to trigger snapback at any time – an offer Iran has publicly rejected.
"There is a sense of inertia within the Iranian political leadership, but that is also partly the result of the Europeans not giving Iran a real exit ramp," Ali Vaez, Iran project director at Crisis Group, told The National.
Russia has circulated a draft resolution at the UN Security Council suggesting a six-month extension of resolution 2231 but without the possibility of snapback – a move viewed with suspicion by the Europeans, who believe Moscow wants them to simply let the mechanism expire without using it.
Though the US, which withdrew from the nuclear deal in 2018, remains Iran's main interlocutor when it comes to its atomic programme, Europeans hope to keep a seat at the table should UN sanctions be lifted.
What sanctions would be reimposed?
Under ‘snapback’, measures imposed on Iran by the UN Security Council in six resolutions would be restored, including:
- An arms embargo
- A ban on uranium enrichment and reprocessing
- A ban on launches and other activities with ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, as well as ballistic missile technology transfer and technical assistance
- A targeted global asset freeze and travel ban on Iranian individuals and entities
- Authorisation for countries to inspect Iran Air Cargo and Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines cargoes for banned goods
Diplomatic deadlock
The E3 have held several rounds of talks with Iran since Israel and the US struck its nuclear installations in mid-June.
But at the latest meeting in Geneva on Tuesday, held at Iran's request according to the French diplomat, did not yield sufficiently tangible commitments from Iran.
"Discussions were difficult – Iranians appeared slightly more flexible but not enough," the French diplomat said.
The E3's main ask from Iran is to account for the whereabouts of 400kg of uranium enriched at 60 per cent, in violation of the nuclear deal. The Europeans have requested a mechanism to be set up for the unaccounted stockpile, which they believe represents nine times the amount of material necessary to produce a nuclear bomb.
A UK official said Iran's stockpile was 45 times the agreed cap of 300kg of 3.67 per cent-enriched uranium. The number of advanced centrifuges in operation before the recent 12-day war with Israel and the US resulted in inspectors withdrawing from the sites was 10 times the deal's limit.
At talks held in Geneva on Tuesday at political director level with Iran's deputy foreign ministers, Europeans were unconvinced by Iranian arguments alleging they were unable to find the uranium because it had been buried by Israeli strikes, which killed more than 1,000 people in Iran in June. Iranians reportedly added that they could not search for it out of fear of being attacked by Israel again.
"We cannot exclude that, despite Israeli strikes, Iran has moved the enriched uranium and re-enriching it to 90 per cent," the French diplomatic source said, adding that there were no intelligence reports that backed this possibility.
Iran has also reportedly been reluctant to detail how it plans to co-operate with IAEA inspectors, who were allowed this week to return to Iran for the first time since the 12-day war.
Yet they were allowed only to visit Bushehr, Iran's sole civilian nuclear power plant, which runs on Russian-enriched uranium. Europeans view this as an insufficient step.
Europeans want Iran to return to negotiations with the US, which had begun in April but were interrupted by the Israeli bombing campaign three months later. Iran has ruled out direct talks.
Europe is not offering any positive incentives, Mr Vaez told The National. "They have asked Iran to restore IAEA access, account for the missing uranium stockpile and engage in direct talks with the US in return for holding the Damocles sword over their neck for another six months," he said. "Also, Iran needs security guarantees and sanctions relief, which are not in the Europeans’ gift to offer as only the US holds that power."
Results
Female 49kg: Mayssa Bastos (BRA) bt Thamires Aquino (BRA); points 0-0 (advantage points points 1-0).
Female 55kg: Bianca Basilio (BRA) bt Amal Amjahid (BEL); points 4-2.
Female 62kg: Beatriz Mesquita (BRA) v Ffion Davies (GBR); 10-2.
Female 70kg: Thamara Silva (BRA) bt Alessandra Moss (AUS); submission.
Female 90kg: Gabreili Passanha (BRA) bt Claire-France Thevenon (FRA); submission.
Male 56kg: Hiago George (BRA) bt Carlos Alberto da Silva (BRA); 2-2 (2-0)
Male 62kg: Gabriel de Sousa (BRA) bt Joao Miyao (BRA); 2-2 (2-1)
Male 69kg: Paulo Miyao (BRA) bt Isaac Doederlein (USA); 2-2 (2-2) Ref decision.
Male 77kg: Tommy Langarkar (NOR) by Oliver Lovell (GBR); submission.
Male 85kg: Rudson Mateus Teles (BRA) bt Faisal Al Ketbi (UAE); 2-2 (1-1) Ref decision.
Male 94kg: Kaynan Duarte (BRA) bt Adam Wardzinski (POL); submission.
Male 110kg: Joao Rocha (BRA) bt Yahia Mansoor Al Hammadi (UAE); submission.
RESULTS
6.30pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 Group 1 (PA) Dh119,373 (Dirt) 1,600m
Winner: Brraq, Adrie de Vries (jockey), Jean-Claude Pecout (trainer)
7.05pm: Handicap (TB) Dh102,500 (D) 1,200m
Winner: Taamol, Connor Beasley, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
7.40pm: Handicap (TB) Dh105,000 (Turf) 1,800m
Winner: Eqtiraan, Connor Beasley, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
8.15pm: UAE 1000 Guineas Trial (TB) Dh183,650 (D) 1,400m
Winner: Soft Whisper, Pat Cosgrave, Saeed bin Suroor.
9.50pm: Handicap (TB) Dh105,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Hypothetical, Mickael Barzalona, Salem bin Ghadayer.
9.25pm: Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (T) 1,000m
Winner: Etisalat, Sando Paiva, Ali Rashid Al Raihe
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
It's up to you to go green
Nils El Accad, chief executive and owner of Organic Foods and Café, says going green is about “lifestyle and attitude” rather than a “money change”; people need to plan ahead to fill water bottles in advance and take their own bags to the supermarket, he says.
“People always want someone else to do the work; it doesn’t work like that,” he adds. “The first step: you have to consciously make that decision and change.”
When he gets a takeaway, says Mr El Accad, he takes his own glass jars instead of accepting disposable aluminium containers, paper napkins and plastic tubs, cutlery and bags from restaurants.
He also plants his own crops and herbs at home and at the Sheikh Zayed store, from basil and rosemary to beans, squashes and papayas. “If you’re going to water anything, better it be tomatoes and cucumbers, something edible, than grass,” he says.
“All this throwaway plastic - cups, bottles, forks - has to go first,” says Mr El Accad, who has banned all disposable straws, whether plastic or even paper, from the café chain.
One of the latest changes he has implemented at his stores is to offer refills of liquid laundry detergent, to save plastic. The two brands Organic Foods stocks, Organic Larder and Sonnett, are both “triple-certified - you could eat the product”.
The Organic Larder detergent will soon be delivered in 200-litre metal oil drums before being decanted into 20-litre containers in-store.
Customers can refill their bottles at least 30 times before they start to degrade, he says. Organic Larder costs Dh35.75 for one litre and Dh62 for 2.75 litres and refills will cost 15 to 20 per cent less, Mr El Accad says.
But while there are savings to be had, going green tends to come with upfront costs and extra work and planning. Are we ready to refill bottles rather than throw them away? “You have to change,” says Mr El Accad. “I can only make it available.”
The Ashes
Results
First Test, Brisbane: Australia won by 10 wickets
Second Test, Adelaide: Australia won by 120 runs
Third Test, Perth: Australia won by an innings and 41 runs
Fourth Test: Melbourne: Drawn
Fifth Test: Australia won by an innings and 123 runs
Know before you go
- Jebel Akhdar is a two-hour drive from Muscat airport or a six-hour drive from Dubai. It’s impossible to visit by car unless you have a 4x4. Phone ahead to the hotel to arrange a transfer.
- If you’re driving, make sure your insurance covers Oman.
- By air: Budget airlines Air Arabia, Flydubai and SalamAir offer direct routes to Muscat from the UAE.
- Tourists from the Emirates (UAE nationals not included) must apply for an Omani visa online before arrival at evisa.rop.gov.om. The process typically takes several days.
- Flash floods are probable due to the terrain and a lack of drainage. Always check the weather before venturing into any canyons or other remote areas and identify a plan of escape that includes high ground, shelter and parking where your car won’t be overtaken by sudden downpours.
Our legal consultants
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
The candidates
Dr Ayham Ammora, scientist and business executive
Ali Azeem, business leader
Tony Booth, professor of education
Lord Browne, former BP chief executive
Dr Mohamed El-Erian, economist
Professor Wyn Evans, astrophysicist
Dr Mark Mann, scientist
Gina MIller, anti-Brexit campaigner
Lord Smith, former Cabinet minister
Sandi Toksvig, broadcaster
Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD)
What is THAAD?
It is considered to be the US' most superior missile defence system.
Production:
It was first created in 2008.
Speed:
THAAD missiles can travel at over Mach 8, so fast that it is hypersonic.
Abilities:
THAAD is designed to take out projectiles, namely ballistic missiles, as they are on their downward trajectory towards their target, otherwise known as the "terminal phase".
Purpose:
To protect high-value strategic sites, such as airfields or population centres.
Range:
THAAD can target projectiles both inside and outside of the Earth's atmosphere, at an altitude of 93 miles above the Earth's surface.
Creators:
Lockheed Martin was originally granted the contract to develop the system in 1992. Defence company Raytheon sub-contracts to develop other major parts of the system, such as ground-based radar.
UAE and THAAD:
In 2011, the UAE became the first country outside of the US to buy two THAAD missile defence systems. It then deployed them in 2016, becoming the first Gulf country to do so.
What sanctions would be reimposed?
Under ‘snapback’, measures imposed on Iran by the UN Security Council in six resolutions would be restored, including:
- An arms embargo
- A ban on uranium enrichment and reprocessing
- A ban on launches and other activities with ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, as well as ballistic missile technology transfer and technical assistance
- A targeted global asset freeze and travel ban on Iranian individuals and entities
- Authorisation for countries to inspect Iran Air Cargo and Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines cargoes for banned goods
