The Netherlands headed to the polls on Wednesday in a close-run snap election with Geert Wilders seeking a second straight victory for his far-right Party for Freedom.
The election for all 150 seats in the lower Second Chamber of parliament is forecast to be a close race between the shock winner of the last election, Mr Wilders' populist, anti-Islam Party for Freedom (PVV), and the centre left bloc of the Labour Party and Green Left.
After the vote, parties will begin talks to form a coalition and secure a majority in parliament. With 15 parties set to be represented in the legislature, a majority may need at least four parties. The PVV leads in the polls, but most parties have ruled out joining it in government.
Polls open at 7.30am and close at 9pm local time. Broadcasters publish an exit poll as soon as voting ends and update it a half-hour later. Counting takes place through the evening and overnight.
Opinion polls indicate that the housing market, healthcare, and immigration top the list of concerns among Dutch voters. Nearly two-thirds want answers on a shortage of affordable housing, while healthcare resonates with older voters and immigration remains a key issue for right-wing supporters, according to a poll by broadcaster RTL. Issues such as the climate and defence spending have taken a back seat.
After years in opposition, Mr Wilders' victory in the last election meant his party was the largest in the outgoing four-party coalition, but he torpedoed the administration after failing to push through all of what he called Europe's toughest asylum and immigration policies.
He withdrew his party's ministers in June, triggering the fourth general election in a decade and ensuring that the administration led by Prime Minister Dick Schoof will go down in history as one of the shortest-lived Dutch governments, at just 11 months.
It could take months to form the next coalition after Wednesday's vote. The Dutch system of proportional representation ensures coalitions, and with divisions deep across the political spectrum, tough negotiations lie ahead.
Right wing
Polls suggest that Mr Wilders' PVV party remains on track to be the largest bloc, but other more moderate parties are closing the gap.
PVV has put an asylum moratorium and fighting “woke ideology gone mad” central to its campaign. “This is YOUR country! The Netherlands is full, overfull, bursting at the seams,” the first words of its manifesto read.
Mr Wilders has proposed saving funds by closing the borders, sending male Ukrainian refugees back to Ukraine, and halting development aid to finance energy and healthcare benefits.
However, his grip on the far-right base is loosening, with Ingrid Coenradie, a little-known politician until recently, a rising voice in Dutch politics. She has transformed her tiny JA21 party into a budding conservative force by appealing to voters tired of Wilders.
“Over the past few years, people have voted for Geert Wilders, whether out of support or protest. But now you’re seeing people drop out, disappointed,” she said this week. JA21 now has enough support to help sway coalition talks.
The party has done it by promising to push law-and-order policies without Mr Wilders’ burn-it-down tactics, which helped tank the last government. JA21 still wants deep migration cuts, for instance, but shuns Mr Wilders’ preferred ban. It’s also willing to partner with a range of groups in the splintered Dutch parliament.
Despite its claims to pragmatism, JA21’s platform is entrenched on the far right.
The party wants to expand bans on Islamic clothing and mosque prayer calls, send Syrian refugees back to “safe parts” of the country and promote “traditional Dutch culture”.
“Within the far-right side of the spectrum, very large shifts are possible,” said Matthijs Rooduijn, a University of Amsterdam professor who studies populism and right-wing politics.
“In the end, it is about the question of who is going to lead the next coalition, what kind of politics are we going to see in the coming years,” he said on national broadcaster NOS. “We have seen a lot of chaos and I think the Netherlands now hankers for something different.”
One the left, Christian Democrat leader Henri Bontenbal, who is tipped as a possible prime minister, said that the vote also is about who will be prime minister for the next four-year term.
The CDA fell to a historical low in the 2023 election, but it has managed to recover lost ground by campaigning on the promise of stable government and affordable housing under Mr Bontenbal, who took over as leader after that campaign.
The CDA is neck and neck with the recently merged Green Party and the Social Democrats (GroenLinks-PVDA) in the polls with both estimated to take home around 15 per cent of votes. GroenLinks-PVDA, fronted by ex-European Commissioner Frans Timmerman, is running on familiar centre-left policies and has made 'solidarity' its main message. It has promised more affordable housing, a cleaner environment, and a more equitable distribution of wealth.
AI attack
On Monday, Mr Wilders apologised for AI-generated images intended to discredit Mr Timmermans. The fake images were published on a Facebook page run anonymously by two MPs from his party.
The images included a portrayal of a handcuffed Mr Timmermans being escorted by police and another of the politician taking money from a white man then giving it to people in Islamic dress.
Another showed a portrait of Mr Timmermans with the word “corrupt” written below.
“Inappropriate and unacceptable. I distance myself from this. The site has been taken down. Apologies to colleague Timmermans,” Mr Wilders posted on X.
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Based: Tunisia
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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Will the pound fall to parity with the dollar?
The idea of pound parity now seems less far-fetched as the risk grows that Britain may split away from the European Union without a deal.
Rupert Harrison, a fund manager at BlackRock, sees the risk of it falling to trade level with the dollar on a no-deal Brexit. The view echoes Morgan Stanley’s recent forecast that the currency can plunge toward $1 (Dh3.67) on such an outcome. That isn’t the majority view yet – a Bloomberg survey this month estimated the pound will slide to $1.10 should the UK exit the bloc without an agreement.
New Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said that Britain will leave the EU on the October 31 deadline with or without an agreement, fuelling concern the nation is headed for a disorderly departure and fanning pessimism toward the pound. Sterling has fallen more than 7 per cent in the past three months, the worst performance among major developed-market currencies.
“The pound is at a much lower level now but I still think a no-deal exit would lead to significant volatility and we could be testing parity on a really bad outcome,” said Mr Harrison, who manages more than $10 billion in assets at BlackRock. “We will see this game of chicken continue through August and that’s likely negative for sterling,” he said about the deadlocked Brexit talks.
The pound fell 0.8 per cent to $1.2033 on Friday, its weakest closing level since the 1980s, after a report on the second quarter showed the UK economy shrank for the first time in six years. The data means it is likely the Bank of England will cut interest rates, according to Mizuho Bank.
The BOE said in November that the currency could fall even below $1 in an analysis on possible worst-case Brexit scenarios. Options-based calculations showed around a 6.4 per cent chance of pound-dollar parity in the next one year, markedly higher than 0.2 per cent in early March when prospects of a no-deal outcome were seemingly off the table.
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Timeline
2012-2015
The company offers payments/bribes to win key contracts in the Middle East
May 2017
The UK SFO officially opens investigation into Petrofac’s use of agents, corruption, and potential bribery to secure contracts
September 2021
Petrofac pleads guilty to seven counts of failing to prevent bribery under the UK Bribery Act
October 2021
Court fines Petrofac £77 million for bribery. Former executive receives a two-year suspended sentence
December 2024
Petrofac enters into comprehensive restructuring to strengthen the financial position of the group
May 2025
The High Court of England and Wales approves the company’s restructuring plan
July 2025
The Court of Appeal issues a judgment challenging parts of the restructuring plan
August 2025
Petrofac issues a business update to execute the restructuring and confirms it will appeal the Court of Appeal decision
October 2025
Petrofac loses a major TenneT offshore wind contract worth €13 billion. Holding company files for administration in the UK. Petrofac delisted from the London Stock Exchange
November 2025
180 Petrofac employees laid off in the UAE
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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