The youth of France are ambivalent about a new national service model that hopes to start attracting thousands next year and deeply worried that Europe might have to go to war, most likely with Russia.
Minds have been focused by President Emmanuel Macron’s announcement last week that France would have a form of voluntary conscription.
“We need mobilisation,” Mr Macron said. “France cannot remain idle”, while the younger generation was “ready to stand up” for their nation, he added. His office has highlighted recent studies on the armed forces' popularity among French youth.
former Norwegian conscript
Yet on the streets of Paris, The National found several youths who were troubled by the thought of being drafted and a handful excited by the idea of serving their country.
All agreed that the world as they know it is under threat, though they struggled to pinpoint what exactly they were afraid of - the military might of Russia and China, or social inequalities and climate change.
But it is that fear that motivated Loic, 22, a fashion student, to keep an open mind about the possibility of volunteering in the new military conscription scheme.
Mr Macron's announcements “actually scared me”, said Loic. “I've always been afraid of experiencing it." It brought back grim memories of his grandparents tales about the Second World War, he added.
As a student who benefited from European funds and has lived in Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and Germany, he is also deeply attached to the ideal of a united Europe. "I'd still be willing to do military service, but it depends on ... whether it aligns with my values," he said.
Some confessed to “turning a blind eye and telling myself nothing's happening", or the fear of being forced to go to war, while others cited the comfort of France’s nuclear deterrent.
But for Gregoire, 17, who comes from a military family, his president’s initiative was good because it meant “Europe is preparing for war” and that “prevention is better than cure”.
Western complacency
With France moving ahead and East European countries bordering Russia stepping up their military forces, former UK Conservative shadow defence secretary Bernard Jenkin said they were “mobilising their populations in a way” that Britain is not. He also referred to “huge complacency at the heart of the whole British political establishment” over the role of military.
The veteran MP said the British government was failing to match its pronouncements for greater military funding with actual cash.
A year ago it was seen as an election gimmick when his party announced it would reintroduce military conscription. The political sniping has long since disappeared with the prospect being seriously debated across Europe, with France introducing a form of conscription.
Public debates on the possible return of war to Western Europe has become hugely controversial in France since chief of defence staff Fabien Mandon said last month the country "must be ready to lose its children" and that the population lacked the "moral strength" to protect its identity.
The real threat of a resurgent Russia rising in the East whenever the bloodbath of the Ukraine conflict ends with Moscow’s army battle-hardened and tactically astute is unnerving Europe.
That’s reflected in a poll of nine major European countries, Germany and France among them, where 69 per cent of the population thought their country could defend itself against a Russian attack.
That view is not reflected in countries that border Russia – in Scandinavia, the Baltic States and Poland – who have military conscription. Farther West, little political or popular appetite is detected, with the threat considered distant. But with the US disengaging from Europe the need to enlarge armies is becoming more apparent.
In the UK, as in much of Western Europe and as seen in Paris, there is little debate or even appetite for 18 year olds giving up a year or more to be drafted into the military. That could be a mistake, some military analysts say.
“Britain will have to adjust to new realities and by new realities, I mean the dramatically worse security environment in Europe, and that could force reconsideration,” said Gregoire Loos, Chatham House think tank director for Europe, who is also French Navy reservist.
“The more you speak with military leaders, the clearer it is that the UK should consider conscription sooner rather than later to avoid being caught unprepared in case of large-scale conflict.”
Peace vibes
Security fears have led Europe to step up its defence spending, with Germany increasing its army personnel by 80,000 to 260,000 and a mandatory questionnaire being sent to all 18 year olds next year seeking their interest in military service. With protests outside the building, the German parliament backed the plan on Friday.
But France is among the first Western European countries that is taking the first tentative steps towards conscription, by introducing voluntary military service of 10 months for school-leavers almost 30 years after it scrapped mandatory service.
From next year, French youths can volunteer to sign up for 10 months to be paid €800 ($933) a month, along with food and accommodation, in a plan that will cost more than €2 billion, recruiting 50,000 people by 2035.
In his speech on November 27, Mr Macron said he was "inspired by the practices of our European partners, particularly Norway". He added that "at a time when all our European allies are moving forward, facing a threat that weighs on us all, France cannot remain inactive".
The new system also aims at boosting the number of reservists from 45,000 today to 80,000 in 2030. After service, volunteers will automatically switch to the status of reservists for five years. They can then be called for up to five days of training a year. In case of war, it is up to the French Parliament to decide whether these reservists should be called.
In countries such as South Korea, no one is exempt from the draft, including all seven members of the K-pop super-band BTS, who have just completed their mandatory 18-month spell. Their journey from stage to parade ground was akin to the call up of Elvis Presley in the 1950s.
But the problem in much of Europe is that it remains unclear, without being forced to do it, that generations used to peace, prosperity and sedentary lifestyle will step up.
Young western Europeans, argued Mr Loos, had to be “slowly woken up without frightening them” because, referring to the 80 years since the Second World War, “we have very sensitive populations now that have been used to living at peace and haven't seen a Panzer in decades”.
Defence spending
Another problem is that many western economies simply don’t have the extra money to fund conscription. In France, Mr Macron has yet to convince Parliament, which is struggling to agree on deep budget cuts, to approve the needed extra spending for his new conscription model estimated at €2.3 billion between 2026 and 2030.
Britain is among those that are “unable to politically make the case” for the draft, especially when “you've got the NHS and education in such difficulties”, said Paul O’Neill, a military HR specialist at the Rusi think tank.
He said removing young people from the economy, especially at a time of ageing populations, would negatively impact GDP.
Forces that have become as small as the British Army, numbering 74,000 soldiers, would find it difficult to spare the regular troops to train recruits.
“It can use up an incredible amount of regular manpower so it can be counterproductive,” said retired Colonel Hamish de Bretton Gordon. But he added one million former service personnel in the UK veterans’ community could be called on to help with training.
Former Brigadier, Ben Barry, said it would change the profile of the forces, with “regular troops running a large sausage machine of training”. He added: “If conscription is not properly resourced, then you're worse off than not having it.”
The military would need to have fresh funding for equipment, barracks, armour and weapons, but Brig Barry said a “refined conscription” of 10,000 recruits a year could work to boost numbers.
Mr O’Neill said one year's training may not be enough. “The thought of throwing relatively poorly trained young men and women into a meat grinder of a war doesn't sound particularly attractive.”
But Mr Jenkin criticised the government for failing to properly invest in forces, putting them “on to a pre-war footing in order to prepare and deter a future conflict – and [Russian President Vladimir] Putin sees this softness”.
Col de Bretton Gordon made the point that conscription might be forced upon Britain's youngsters. “There are an awful lot of negatives involved in conscription but a little bit like in 1939 we might not have any choice.”
Norway’s way
The Norwegian system is often viewed as one that could be used more broadly, as all men and women have a legal duty to serve. Everyone applies but only up to 20 per cent of the best and most motivated are accepted. The service also partially helps with university fees and gives young people a boost in future careers.
“In Norway, it’s quite well viewed in society and just spending a couple of years can help a lot,” said Ask, an engineer in Oslo who did his military service in 2014 on the Russian border. “You can put it on your CV and it’s viewed as a good thing.”
Finland also runs universal conscription that is highly regarded, with the country able to mobile a force of 280,000 trained frontline forces. All Finnish males aged 18 are drafted for a year’s training, and are then liable for call-up until the age of 50, giving the country an extraordinary military reserve of 860,000.
Poland, which has a mandatory military qualification assessment for young adults, will spend nearly 5 per cent of GDP on defence next year and is looking to expand its armed forces to 300,000 troops, making it the biggest in Europe.
Others cite the Israeli model in which everyone, bar the ultra-orthodox, has to serve two years and is then liable for call up for a month or more every year until they are 40.
Strategic shock required?
Ultimately, for Britain or other western militaries to take up such a policies, they will have to be under severe duress for the societal mindset to change.
“It does require governments to have uncomfortable conversations with their people, conversations about the threat to the nation,” said Brig Barry. But that mindset could change with “a strategic shock, of a similar impact on the UK as 9/11 had on the US”.
However, Mr O’Neill said that while Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine had been a “catalysing moment”, there was “a disconnect between our rhetoric and our reality” that has left Britain, and much of Europe, still unprepared for war.
Back on the streets of Paris, many understand announcements linked to conscription as a way of preparing the larger population for the possibility of war.
"If several European countries are reinstating military service, it's surely because there's an idea of a potentially global war," said Loic. "I think we're getting close to something and it's quite frightening."
