Live updates: Follow the latest on Israel-Gaza
With Israeli forces engaged in heavy fighting with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, analysts are wondering how the war could pan out amid rapid changes in modern conflict.
Many weapons have not been used extensively by either side and could alter the course of fighting. Quadcopter drones, including first person view (FPV) drones used by both sides, can travel extremely fast and have proved deadly against enemy tanks in the Ukraine war, in some cases flying at claimed speeds of 200mph and sometimes chasing soldiers inside bunkers.
In August, a Ukrainian FPV may have even downed a Russian Mi-28 attack helicopter mid-flight. In south Lebanon’s valleys, Israeli helicopters slowing to land or extract troops, including casualties, could be vulnerable to this new threat unless they can electronically jam their signals.
Used in their thousands, alongside drones that drop grenades, these weapons have stopped tank attacks in Ukraine and are fitted with purpose-built warheads, ensuring soldiers have little respite from the hard-to-spot machines. Hezbollah is one of the pioneers in the use of these quadcopters, deploying them against rebels during Syria’s civil war, for attack and reconnaissance.
But it’s not clear to what extent Israel and Hezbollah have embraced the “drone revolution”, which has seen Russia and Ukraine build hundreds of thousands, even millions of them. Ukraine has seen a rapid evolution of small drones, from being fitted with anti-tank grenades to being modified to carry modern anti-tank missiles, custom-made bombs or even thermite which burns at 2,500 celsius to burn troops out of forest positions.
Adopting drone warfare
Ukrainian drone units are said to use hundreds of explosive quadcopters per month. By contrast Israeli forces in Gaza, such as the 55th paratroop brigade, which could currently be fighting in Lebanon, quickly acquired about 100 small drones for reconnaissance for fighting in the enclave. Such drones can check the entrances of tunnels used by Hamas and Hezbollah.
But experts say modern armies, including Israel, are still learning how best to use small "tactical" drones. Even with these eyes in the sky, it will be hard for Israeli forces to concentrate armoured vehicles, which would maximise numerical superiority, but increase their visibility in big convoys. Modern battlefields, experts say, are “transparent."
“You would see drones used a lot for reconnaissance, because they would need as much advance warning of Israeli positions and their routes as possible, so that they could set up ambush teams, so that they could field mortars and artillery to support them, or so that they could potentially move high-risk assets out of the way,” says Sam Cranny-Evans, an independent defence consultant and an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a think tank.
An illustration of just how hard they are to defend against came in July, when Hezbollah released footage of an FPV drone flying into an anti-drone system on an Israeli base, known as Drone Dome. The system advertises the ability to detect small drones to over 3km, suggesting a possible failure by its operators.
Hezbollah has used a TV-guided missile with a similar capability, the Almas, for attacking Israeli border positions, but the drones could offer a much cheaper alternative.
“Drones may be used in the FPV role, especially as they can separate the crew from the target and improve survivability. However, Israeli formations will not be working in isolated packets in wide open spaces all of the time, so we should not expect the results to be the same as in Ukraine,” Mr Cranny-Evans says.
Israel may be wary of big tank operations, but has also invested heavily in countering small drones, which were used against its forces at the start of the Gaza war, dropping grenades on unsuspecting troops – until more effective jamming devices (electronic warfare) was deployed.
“Electronic warfare will play a big role, and Hezbollah forces are likely to be under a lot of pressure if they engage. They will likely be able to operate behind Israeli lines in some areas, but the stakes for those fighters will always be high,” Mr Cranny-Evans says.
To illustrate initial Israeli fears of drones, in mid-October last year Israeli tanks were pictured before the Gaza ground invasion fitted with cages, intended to detonate explosive drones before an explosive charge can fire a “penetrator” into the tank – normally hitting thin turret armour at the rear.
Planning for war
A year later, Israel is far more prepared for a confrontation with Hezbollah, says Danny Citrinowicz, a defence analyst who held a senior role in Israel’s military intelligence in the aftermath of the 2006 war.
“Israel really invested in developing its understanding regarding the organisation, from the capabilities standpoint but also from the command and control and the senior leadership, and that’s really coming into effect in the last two weeks,” says Mr Citrinowicz, also a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies.
“Hezbollah is a very different organisation than it was two weeks ago but it retains major capabilities. The body is there, but the head is gone,” he says, speaking of the September 27 killing of leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut.
This could complicate their military operations, from organising defences to deployment of drones. But the small quadcopters aren’t the only weapon that could shape how battle unfolds.
Tank cages only offer limited protection against the feared Kornet anti-tank missiles used by both Hamas and Hezbollah. From Syria to Ukraine, they’ve knocked out some of the world’s most heavily armoured tanks.
“Hezbollah has a good array of guided anti-tank missiles, which are very effective and would be more likely to achieve target defeat if they get past Trophy. And against helicopters of course,” Mr Cranny-Evans says.
The Trophy active protection system comprises an array of sensors that detect missiles and destroy them with a cone of shrapnel, but this hasn’t stopped Israel losing a number of Merkava tanks and heavily armoured Namer personnel carriers in Gaza.
It’s not clear whether the Trophy can defend against explosive quadcopter drones, but according to analysis by RUSI, software that operates its sensors can be tweaked, suggesting it could be used against small quadcopters. Israeli armoured units also use Elbit’s Iron Fist active protection system, similar to Trophy, which uses highly sensitive AESA radars, reportedly providing all-round protection.
Helicopter attacks
If Israel wants to avoid concentrations of tanks and armoured personnel carriers, watched from all sides as they pass through narrow valleys, soldiers could ride into battle by helicopter. This raises the threat of portable anti-aircraft missile systems, or MANPADS, which can be effective against low-flying aircraft, and have shot down several large, fixed wing Israeli drones.
Israeli Apache helicopters responding to the October 7 Hamas attack had to evade volleys of MANPADS, and carry electronic defensive measures that alert pilots to an attack and can jam missiles or deploy decoys.
If Israeli forces manage to advance while jamming drones and surviving anti-tank missiles, they will face an old foe: the explosively formed penetrator roadside bomb (EFP).
Developed by Iranian engineers and Hezbollah, the bomb was extensively used against armoured vehicles in Iraq, killing nearly 200 American and British soldiers, and has also been effective against Israeli armour in Lebanon and Gaza. The bombs blast a thick piece of copper into a “shaped” penetrator which flies at the target at over 1km per second.
Israel could use jamming devices to block signals detonating the bombs, but they could also be detonated by operators using wire, rather than signals. Iranian advisers are thought to have helped Yemen’s Houthis disguise the devices as roadside rocks.
“Nobody knows what will happen in the next couple of days, we’re entering uncharted territory,” Mr Citrinowicz says. “This campaign, based on what the US administration is saying, it's supposed to be very contained. But you know where you're starting, you just don't know where you're finishing. I hope it will be contained and will push the sides for a ceasefire.”
The five pillars of Islam
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Last 10 winners of African Footballer of the Year
2006: Didier Drogba (Chelsea and Ivory Coast)
2007: Frederic Kanoute (Sevilla and Mali)
2008: Emmanuel Adebayor (Arsenal and Togo)
2009: Didier Drogba (Chelsea and Ivory Coast)
2010: Samuel Eto’o (Inter Milan and Cameroon)
2011: Yaya Toure (Manchester City and Ivory Coast)
2012: Yaya Toure (Manchester City and Ivory Coast)
2013: Yaya Toure (Manchester City and Ivory Coast)
2014: Yaya Toure (Manchester City and Ivory Coast)
2015: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (Borussia Dortmund and Gabon)
2016: Riyad Mahrez (Leicester City and Algeria)
Scoreline
Al Wasl 1 (Caio Canedo 90 1')
Al Ain 2 (Ismail Ahmed 3', Marcus Berg 50')
Red cards: Ismail Ahmed (Al Ain) 77'
Six large-scale objects on show
- Concrete wall and windows from the now demolished Robin Hood Gardens housing estate in Poplar
- The 17th Century Agra Colonnade, from the bathhouse of the fort of Agra in India
- A stagecloth for The Ballet Russes that is 10m high – the largest Picasso in the world
- Frank Lloyd Wright’s 1930s Kaufmann Office
- A full-scale Frankfurt Kitchen designed by Margarete Schütte-Lihotzky, which transformed kitchen design in the 20th century
- Torrijos Palace dome
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
The years Ramadan fell in May
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
If you go
The flights
Etihad flies direct from Abu Dhabi to San Francisco from Dh5,760 return including taxes.
The car
Etihad Guest members get a 10 per cent worldwide discount when booking with Hertz, as well as earning miles on their rentals. A week's car hire costs from Dh1,500 including taxes.
The hotels
Along the route, Motel 6 (www.motel6.com) offers good value and comfort, with rooms from $55 (Dh202) per night including taxes. In Portland, the Jupiter Hotel (https://jupiterhotel.com/) has rooms from $165 (Dh606) per night including taxes. The Society Hotel https://thesocietyhotel.com/ has rooms from $130 (Dh478) per night including taxes.
More info
To keep up with constant developments in Portland, visit www.travelportland.com. Good guidebooks include the Lonely Planet guides to Northern California and Washington, Oregon & the Pacific Northwest.
World Cup warm-up fixtures
Friday, May 24:
- Pakistan v Afghanistan (Bristol)
- Sri Lanka v South Africa (Cardiff)
Saturday, May 25
- England v Australia (Southampton)
- India v New Zealand (The Oval, London)
Sunday, May 26
- South Africa v West Indies (Bristol)
- Pakistan v Bangladesh (Cardiff)
Monday, May 27
- Australia v Sri Lanka (Southampton)
- England v Afghanistan (The Oval, London)
Tuesday, May 28
- West Indies v New Zealand (Bristol)
- Bangladesh v India (Cardiff)
More on animal trafficking
THE BIO
Favourite book: ‘Purpose Driven Life’ by Rick Warren
Favourite travel destination: Switzerland
Hobbies: Travelling and following motivational speeches and speakers
Favourite place in UAE: Dubai Museum
Indian origin executives leading top technology firms
Sundar Pichai
Chief executive, Google and Alphabet
Satya Nadella
Chief executive, Microsoft
Ajaypal Singh Banga
President and chief executive, Mastercard
Shantanu Narayen
Chief executive, chairman, and president, Adobe
Indra Nooyi
Board of directors, Amazon and former chief executive, PepsiCo
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
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Martin Sabbagh profile
Job: CEO JCDecaux Middle East
In the role: Since January 2015
Lives: In the UAE
Background: M&A, investment banking
Studied: Corporate finance
In numbers
Number of Chinese tourists coming to UAE in 2017 was... 1.3m
Alibaba’s new ‘Tech Town’ in Dubai is worth... $600m
China’s investment in the MIddle East in 2016 was... $29.5bn
The world’s most valuable start-up in 2018, TikTok, is valued at... $75bn
Boost to the UAE economy of 5G connectivity will be... $269bn
Analysis
Maros Sefcovic is juggling multiple international trade agreement files, but his message was clear when he spoke to The National on Wednesday.
The EU-UAE bilateral trade deal will be finalised soon, he said. It is in everyone’s interests to do so. Both sides want to move quickly and are in alignment. He said the UAE is a very important partner for the EU. It’s full speed ahead - and with some lofty ambitions - on the road to a free trade agreement.
We also talked about US-EU tariffs. He answered that both sides need to talk more and more often, but he is prepared to defend Europe's position and said diplomacy should be a guiding principle through the current moment.
AUSTRALIA SQUAD
Tim Paine (captain), Sean Abbott, Pat Cummins, Cameron Green, Marcus Harris, Josh Hazlewood, Travis Head, Moises Henriques, Marnus Labuschagne, Nathan Lyon, Michael Neser, James Pattinson, Will Pucovski, Steve Smith, Mitchell Starc, Mitchell Swepson, Matthew Wade, David Warner
UAE jiu-jitsu squad
Men: Hamad Nawad and Khalid Al Balushi (56kg), Omar Al Fadhli and Saeed Al Mazroui (62kg), Taleb Al Kirbi and Humaid Al Kaabi (69kg), Mohammed Al Qubaisi and Saud Al Hammadi (70kg), Khalfan Belhol and Mohammad Haitham Radhi (85kg), Faisal Al Ketbi and Zayed Al Kaabi (94kg)
Women: Wadima Al Yafei and Mahra Al Hanaei (49kg), Bashayer Al Matrooshi and Hessa Al Shamsi (62kg)
How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
LILO & STITCH
Starring: Sydney Elizebeth Agudong, Maia Kealoha, Chris Sanders
Director: Dean Fleischer Camp
Rating: 4.5/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
BUNDESLIGA FIXTURES
Saturday, May 16 (kick-offs UAE time)
Borussia Dortmund v Schalke (4.30pm)
RB Leipzig v Freiburg (4.30pm)
Hoffenheim v Hertha Berlin (4.30pm)
Fortuna Dusseldorf v Paderborn (4.30pm)
Augsburg v Wolfsburg (4.30pm)
Eintracht Frankfurt v Borussia Monchengladbach (7.30pm)
Sunday, May 17
Cologne v Mainz (4.30pm),
Union Berlin v Bayern Munich (7pm)
Monday, May 18
Werder Bremen v Bayer Leverkusen (9.30pm)
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
