Pressure on Netanyahu could force more attacks on Iran

After almost a month of tense waiting, Israel bombed Iran on Saturday morning in the first attack it has officially claimed on its arch-enemy. It called the operation “Days of Repentance”.

The strike on military targets, which Israel said was in response to Iran’s missile attack on Israel on October 1, killed at least four Iranian soldiers. The extent of the physical damage is unclear but, by not hitting Iran's nuclear sites, energy infrastructure or senior leadership, Israel appears to have heeded global calls for restraint.

Faced with the threat of a regional war, the international community launched a massive diplomatic push after October 1 to get Israel to limit its response. Several Arab states declared ahead of time that Israel would not be allowed to use their airspace for an attack on Iran.

Allies who have stood by Israel despite concerns about its conduct of the war in Gaza urged restraint; there were even rumours that a US intelligence leak last week detailing Israeli preparations for an attack on Iran was an American attempt to force Israel to choose a less severe response. A report in The Times on Thursday said the leak forced Israel to delay and change its attack plans.

With government ministers vowing that Israel's response would show its “might”, it was unclear up until the last minute whether the calls for restraint would be heeded. Early reports suggest Israel took steps to minimise escalation, including one in Axios that said Israel alerted Iran on Friday about the looming attack. The Washington Post reported that the operation was planned to prevent an escalation and minimise Iranian casualties.

While it remains to be seen whether there will be more Israeli attacks, international calls for restraint are not the only factor Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has to consider in planning his moves. He will also be under pressure from influential Israeli politicians to do more.

Opposition leader Yair Lapid said “not [attacking] strategic and economic targets in Iran was wrong … we could and should have exacted a much heavier price from Iran”. Senior opposition politician Avigdor Liberman said the operation did not “exact a real price”.

National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, a far-right member of Mr Netanyahu's cabinet, and opposition member Benny Gantz, a former army chief and defence minister, both cast Israel's strikes as a precursor to further attacks on Iran.

“The attack on Iran is important as an opening blow for striking Iran's strategic assets, and this must be the next step,” Mr Ben-Gvir said in a statement released on Saturday evening, after the end of the Sabbath. “We have a historical obligation to remove the Iranian threat to destroy Israel.”

Mr Gantz said the operation represented only a fraction of Israel's ability to inflict harm on Iran and was “important not only in of itself but by the method in which it was executed”.

“It marks a new stage in our war against the Iranian regime, inflicting significant damage in response to their failed attempts to harm Israel while also importantly paving the way for future operations,” he said in a post on X.

Despite this, there is a chance that Saturday's strikes close, at least for now, the latest chapter in a series of tit-for-tat blows between Iran and Israel, who have been locked for decades in a proxy war that has now escalated to direct attacks that put the Middle East on the brink of a hugely destructive regional conflict.

It is unclear yet whether Israel is bracing itself for an Iranian response. So far, Tehran has only said it is “entitled and obliged to defend against acts of external aggression”. But with tensions so high in Israel as it wages war against Iran-backed groups Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, it is not only Iran’s decision whether to contain the situation. There will be enormous pressure on Mr Netanyahu domestically to enact a decisive blow. That pressure will take shape in the coming days and will be pivotal to whether Saturday’s attack ends the cycle of escalation or speeds it up.