Live updates: Follow the latest on Israel-Gaza
US President-elect Donald Trump has said he wants to end the Israel-Hamas-Hezbollah war but there is often a gap between political rhetoric and reality. Should he choose to act on his word, the main question is how?
He has expressed strong support for Israel's actions against Hamas in Gaza but said in March the war needed to end quickly. With the conflict since expanding to another front in Lebanon, against Hezbollah, Mr Trump could play a part in speeding up the process, probably at the expense of the Palestinian people, experts say.
Mr Trump's popularity with the Israeli public has given him significant leverage over their leader Benjamin Netanyahu, especially among the Prime Minister's right-wing support base, said Helit Barel, a former director at the Israeli National Security Council. That could place Mr Netanyahu under more pressure to follow the Trump administration's demands over the war.
“Any collision with Donald Trump is detrimental to Netanyahu,” she told The National. “I think he's absolutely able to come in with much more leverage vis-a-vis Netanyahu, because there are a lot of things you can't take for granted with Donald Trump.”
The devastating conflict was sparked by Hamas’s attacks on southern Israel on October 7, 2023, in which 1,200 people were killed and 251 taken hostage in Gaza. Since then, about 43,400 Palestinians have been killed in Israel’s military campaign in Gaza and another 3,000 people in Lebanon, where the fighting escalated when Israel started a ground campaign last month. World leaders are increasingly calling for a ceasefire in both Gaza and Lebanon, and a hostage release deal, on which the warring parties have so far failed to agree.
Some analysts say Mr Trump could place the burden of ending the war on Israel, through threats of lowering support and military aid to force Mr Netanyahu’s hand into reaching a ceasefire deal.
Any collision with Donald Trump is detrimental to Netanyahu
Helit Barel,
former Israeli National Security Council director
Others see Mr Trump placing the burden on Iran and proxy groups including Hamas and Hezbollah, by allowing Mr Netanyahu to continue striking them, increasing military pressure and essentially forcing them into de-escalation.
“What Israelis expect is that Trump will attempt to bring about a ceasefire by letting Israel execute its war plans without as many restrictions as the Biden administration, to fight the war without its hands being tied,” said Shmuel Rosner, senior fellow at the Jewish People Policy Institute in Jerusalem.
Whichever scenario materialises, all countries in the region are aware of less predictability under Trump. “Countries in this region take him more seriously than Biden,” Mr Rosner added. “They are more aware of his ability to be unpredictable and aggressive, and that's something they all must consider – and this includes Israel, by the way, it's not just the Iranians.”
Analysts point out there are still more than two months until Mr Trump takes office, a period current President Joe Biden could use to pressure the warring sides to end the conflict now that considerations around voter sentiment are irrelevant.
“I do wonder whether a Trump presidency will end up being relevant to this, or will he come into a fait accompli?” said Ms Barel. “We still have two months of Biden, who is now traditionally considered a lame duck, but on the other hand, he has also now released himself from any burden of election calculations or considerations.”
Some observers believe a deal in Lebanon is due within weeks. A Hamas-Israel agreement for Gaza is more complicated, because it involves issues of governing the enclave once the fighting ends, and the specific terms of an exchange of Israeli hostages and Palestinians in Israeli prisons.
The lame-duck period could also have consequences for the direct Iran-Israel conflict. Israel launched strikes on ballistic missile manufacturing sites and air defences in Iran last month, in response to a previous attack on its territory. More Iranian retaliation on Israel is expected.
Mr Trump’s win and the advent of his more unpredictable behaviour “might signal to the Iranians that it's time for them to wrap up the escalation of hostilities with Israel and go back to more civil behaviour”, Mr Rosner said. “That's one possibility. It could also be a hint to all parties that they have to escalate now because they have only a narrow window of time before Trump gets into office.”
Palestinians sidelined
Mr Trump’s close alliance with Israel during his last presidency augurs poorly for Palestinians, who fear that the president-elect will give Mr Netanyahu’s government the go-ahead to continue cracking down on freedom, while expanding settlements in the occupied West Bank, which are illegal under international law.
“Trump's insistence on being Israel's top ally suggests an even more aggressive sidelining of legitimate Palestinian aspirations,” Dimitri Diliani, spokesman for the reformist wing in Fatah, which controls the Ramallah-based Palestinian Authority government body, told The National.
The closure of the Palestinian diplomatic mission in the US during the previous Trump administration does not give Palestinians much hope for their representation when he resumes office in January.
“Trump tends towards Israel’s interests,” said Ammar Jaber, a Palestinian political analyst. “There is the issue of the closure of the Palestinian mission in the US, which was a blow to peace and Palestinian recognition.”
Mica
Director: Ismael Ferroukhi
Stars: Zakaria Inan, Sabrina Ouazani
3 stars
The specs: 2018 Volkswagen Teramont
Price, base / as tested Dh137,000 / Dh189,950
Engine 3.6-litre V6
Gearbox Eight-speed automatic
Power 280hp @ 6,200rpm
Torque 360Nm @ 2,750rpm
Fuel economy, combined 11.7L / 100km
RESULTS
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Aayan%E2%80%99s%20records
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Most sought after workplace benefits in the UAE
- Flexible work arrangements
- Pension support
- Mental well-being assistance
- Insurance coverage for optical, dental, alternative medicine, cancer screening
- Financial well-being incentives
UAE cricketers abroad
Sid Jhurani is not the first cricketer from the UAE to go to the UK to try his luck.
Rameez Shahzad Played alongside Ben Stokes and Liam Plunkett in Durham while he was studying there. He also played club cricket as an overseas professional, but his time in the UK stunted his UAE career. The batsman went a decade without playing for the national team.
Yodhin Punja The seam bowler was named in the UAE’s extended World Cup squad in 2015 despite being just 15 at the time. He made his senior UAE debut aged 16, and subsequently took up a scholarship at Claremont High School in the south of England.
Tips for job-seekers
- Do not submit your application through the Easy Apply button on LinkedIn. Employers receive between 600 and 800 replies for each job advert on the platform. If you are the right fit for a job, connect to a relevant person in the company on LinkedIn and send them a direct message.
- Make sure you are an exact fit for the job advertised. If you are an HR manager with five years’ experience in retail and the job requires a similar candidate with five years’ experience in consumer, you should apply. But if you have no experience in HR, do not apply for the job.
David Mackenzie, founder of recruitment agency Mackenzie Jones Middle East
The Vile
Starring: Bdoor Mohammad, Jasem Alkharraz, Iman Tarik, Sarah Taibah
Director: Majid Al Ansari
Rating: 4/5
Results
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The%20specs%20
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
First Person
Richard Flanagan
Chatto & Windus
Lampedusa: Gateway to Europe
Pietro Bartolo and Lidia Tilotta
Quercus
Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
Wenger's Arsenal reign in numbers
1,228 - games at the helm, ahead of Sunday's Premier League fixture against West Ham United.
704 - wins to date as Arsenal manager.
3 - Premier League title wins, the last during an unbeaten Invincibles campaign of 2003/04.
1,549 - goals scored in Premier League matches by Wenger's teams.
10 - major trophies won.
473 - Premier League victories.
7 - FA Cup triumphs, with three of those having come the last four seasons.
151 - Premier League losses.
21 - full seasons in charge.
49 - games unbeaten in the Premier League from May 2003 to October 2004.
Racecard
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The National Archives, Abu Dhabi
Founded over 50 years ago, the National Archives collects valuable historical material relating to the UAE, and is the oldest and richest archive relating to the Arabian Gulf.
Much of the material can be viewed on line at the Arabian Gulf Digital Archive - https://www.agda.ae/en
Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
THE BIO
Favourite book: ‘Purpose Driven Life’ by Rick Warren
Favourite travel destination: Switzerland
Hobbies: Travelling and following motivational speeches and speakers
Favourite place in UAE: Dubai Museum
Slow loris biog
From: Lonely Loris is a Sunda slow loris, one of nine species of the animal native to Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore
Status: Critically endangered, and listed as vulnerable on the International Union for Conservation of Nature red list due to growing demand in the global exotic pet trade. It is one of the most popular primate species found at Indonesian pet markets
Likes: Sleeping, which they do for up to 18 hours a day. When they are awake, they like to eat fruit, insects, small birds and reptiles and some types of vegetation
Dislikes: Sunlight. Being a nocturnal animal, the slow loris wakes around sunset and is active throughout the night
Superpowers: His dangerous elbows. The slow loris’s doe eyes may make it look cute, but it is also deadly. The only known venomous primate, it hisses and clasps its paws and can produce a venom from its elbow that can cause anaphylactic shock and even death in humans
THE BIO
Favourite car: Koenigsegg Agera RS or Renault Trezor concept car.
Favourite book: I Am Pilgrim by Terry Hayes or Red Notice by Bill Browder.
Biggest inspiration: My husband Nik. He really got me through a lot with his positivity.
Favourite holiday destination: Being at home in Australia, as I travel all over the world for work. It’s great to just hang out with my husband and family.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Cultural fiesta
What: The Al Burda Festival
When: November 14 (from 10am)
Where: Warehouse421, Abu Dhabi
The Al Burda Festival is a celebration of Islamic art and culture, featuring talks, performances and exhibitions. Organised by the Ministry of Culture and Knowledge Development, this one-day event opens with a session on the future of Islamic art. With this in mind, it is followed by a number of workshops and “masterclass” sessions in everything from calligraphy and typography to geometry and the origins of Islamic design. There will also be discussions on subjects including ‘Who is the Audience for Islamic Art?’ and ‘New Markets for Islamic Design.’ A live performance from Kuwaiti guitarist Yousif Yaseen should be one of the highlights of the day.
