Can Donald Trump's influence over Netanyahu end war in the Middle East?

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US President-elect Donald Trump has said he wants to end the Israel-Hamas-Hezbollah war but there is often a gap between political rhetoric and reality. Should he choose to act on his word, the main question is how?

He has expressed strong support for Israel's actions against Hamas in Gaza but said in March the war needed to end quickly. With the conflict since expanding to another front in Lebanon, against Hezbollah, Mr Trump could play a part in speeding up the process, probably at the expense of the Palestinian people, experts say.

Mr Trump's popularity with the Israeli public has given him significant leverage over their leader Benjamin Netanyahu, especially among the Prime Minister's right-wing support base, said Helit Barel, a former director at the Israeli National Security Council. That could place Mr Netanyahu under more pressure to follow the Trump administration's demands over the war.

“Any collision with Donald Trump is detrimental to Netanyahu,” she told The National. “I think he's absolutely able to come in with much more leverage vis-a-vis Netanyahu, because there are a lot of things you can't take for granted with Donald Trump.”

The devastating conflict was sparked by Hamas’s attacks on southern Israel on October 7, 2023, in which 1,200 people were killed and 251 taken hostage in Gaza. Since then, about 43,400 Palestinians have been killed in Israel’s military campaign in Gaza and another 3,000 people in Lebanon, where the fighting escalated when Israel started a ground campaign last month. World leaders are increasingly calling for a ceasefire in both Gaza and Lebanon, and a hostage release deal, on which the warring parties have so far failed to agree.

Some analysts say Mr Trump could place the burden of ending the war on Israel, through threats of lowering support and military aid to force Mr Netanyahu’s hand into reaching a ceasefire deal.

Others see Mr Trump placing the burden on Iran and proxy groups including Hamas and Hezbollah, by allowing Mr Netanyahu to continue striking them, increasing military pressure and essentially forcing them into de-escalation.

“What Israelis expect is that Trump will attempt to bring about a ceasefire by letting Israel execute its war plans without as many restrictions as the Biden administration, to fight the war without its hands being tied,” said Shmuel Rosner, senior fellow at the Jewish People Policy Institute in Jerusalem.

Whichever scenario materialises, all countries in the region are aware of less predictability under Trump. “Countries in this region take him more seriously than Biden,” Mr Rosner added. “They are more aware of his ability to be unpredictable and aggressive, and that's something they all must consider – and this includes Israel, by the way, it's not just the Iranians.”

Analysts point out there are still more than two months until Mr Trump takes office, a period current President Joe Biden could use to pressure the warring sides to end the conflict now that considerations around voter sentiment are irrelevant.

“I do wonder whether a Trump presidency will end up being relevant to this, or will he come into a fait accompli?” said Ms Barel. “We still have two months of Biden, who is now traditionally considered a lame duck, but on the other hand, he has also now released himself from any burden of election calculations or considerations.”

Some observers believe a deal in Lebanon is due within weeks. A Hamas-Israel agreement for Gaza is more complicated, because it involves issues of governing the enclave once the fighting ends, and the specific terms of an exchange of Israeli hostages and Palestinians in Israeli prisons.

The lame-duck period could also have consequences for the direct Iran-Israel conflict. Israel launched strikes on ballistic missile manufacturing sites and air defences in Iran last month, in response to a previous attack on its territory. More Iranian retaliation on Israel is expected.

Mr Trump’s win and the advent of his more unpredictable behaviour “might signal to the Iranians that it's time for them to wrap up the escalation of hostilities with Israel and go back to more civil behaviour”, Mr Rosner said. “That's one possibility. It could also be a hint to all parties that they have to escalate now because they have only a narrow window of time before Trump gets into office.”

Palestinians sidelined

Mr Trump’s close alliance with Israel during his last presidency augurs poorly for Palestinians, who fear that the president-elect will give Mr Netanyahu’s government the go-ahead to continue cracking down on freedom, while expanding settlements in the occupied West Bank, which are illegal under international law.

“Trump's insistence on being Israel's top ally suggests an even more aggressive sidelining of legitimate Palestinian aspirations,” Dimitri Diliani, spokesman for the reformist wing in Fatah, which controls the Ramallah-based Palestinian Authority government body, told The National.

The closure of the Palestinian diplomatic mission in the US during the previous Trump administration does not give Palestinians much hope for their representation when he resumes office in January.

“Trump tends towards Israel’s interests,” said Ammar Jaber, a Palestinian political analyst. “There is the issue of the closure of the Palestinian mission in the US, which was a blow to peace and Palestinian recognition.”