How the Red Sea threat has surged despite US-led naval patrols

RELATED: 'Bridge on fire' - captain's 20-hour battle to save tanker Houthi rebels are adapting their tactics and weapons to carry out attacks on shipping in the Red Sea , defying military action by the international community and an arms embargo, The National can disclose. While naval operations led by the UN and the EU have saved the lives of civilian sailors by shooting down missiles and drones, the pace of attacks shows no sign of abating, according to experts in shipping crossing through the vital international trade lanes. Several assessments have concluded air strikes have “not seriously degraded” the Houthis capabilities. They are said to be making hundreds of millions from shipping companies to ensure safe transit, while the economies of surrounding countries have been “heavily” impacted. The Houthis began these attacks in response to Israeli strikes on Gaza that followed the Hamas-led attacks on Israeli communities on October 7, 2023. The Iran-backed Yemeni rebels said these were in solidarity with Palestinians, and initially vowed to attack all ships connected to Israel, later extending this to the US and the UK. They have said their action will end once the fighting in Gaza stops. According to figures from ACLED, a non-governmental organisation that gathers data on armed conflict, there were 297 attacks on all shipping in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden by November 18, including on warships sent to protect the merchant vessels. Of that number, there have been 133 verified attacks on commercial cargo ships, which includes some that were hit twice. The most recent attacks, which Houthis have claimed but ACLED says are unverified, were against three vessels on November 30. The EU’s naval protection operation, named Aspides, has recorded 143 missile launches against ships and two dozen drone strikes. Houthi tactics have also evolved since the strikes began. They have added a campaign of intimidation against ship owners, warning them against any ties with Israel, the US and the UK. A social media propaganda campaign pumping out content boasting about the attacks has grown unabated across the year of confrontation with the world's most sophisticated militaries. Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts to bring about an end to the attacks have proved fruitless. In an attempt to find a breakthrough, the International Maritime Organisation's Secretary General Arsenio Dominguez has spoken to a host of governments in the Middle East, as well as the Houthis' main backers, Tehran. The US has designated the Houthis as terrorists and has publicly denied claims made by the Yemeni group that it has offered them concessions in return for peace. It denied claims by the Houthis in September that the US had offered to recognise its government in Sanaa in exchange for halting attacks. Inevitably, some shipping companies continue to avoid the area, instead sending vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, increasing journey time and ramping up fuel costs. Meanwhile, those still willing to make the Red Sea journey, after paying the increased insurance rates, do everything they can to hide their presence by turning off their Automatic Identification Systems. One captain told The National about the experience of seeing a ship hit and the extraordinary level of vigilance that is crucial to protect crew and vessel from Houthi attacks. Another relived the trauma of battling a fire on board after being struck by a missile. Houthi rebels began their attacks on world shipping in the Red Sea with a spectacular video taken from a helicopter swooping over the deck of the Galaxy Leader. Masked gunmen swarmed across the deck and burst on to the bridge, where a terrified crewman was seen with his hands up. Other footage showed boats swarming around the ship. The footage delivered a propaganda coup and sent shock waves through the shipping industry. The crew remain in captivity and the Israel-connected ship is tied up off the coast of Yemen, where it has become a tourist attraction. Since their spectacular opening move, the Houthis have made more attempts to board ships but the overwhelming number of attacks have come through missiles and drones, either aerial or surface. They have amassed what the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank described as a “remarkably diverse array of anti-ship weaponry”. The Houthis are subject to arms embargo but have been able to obtain supplies of Iranian anti-ship missiles, some of which they have adapted. They are a mixture of ballistic missiles, which follow an unpowered trajectory after being launched upwards, and cruise missiles that are able to fly a few metres above the sea. The Houthis arsenal is varied and evolving. They use fishing vessel spotters and drones to visually identify targets, as well as the electronic signals being relayed from the ships themselves. In 2022, the Houthis unveiled the Asef anti-ship ballistic missile at a military parade, which the IISS says is “clearly” an anti-ship variant of Iran's Fateh missile. The Houthis also have Iranian cruise missiles, that are based on Chinese technology, in their inventory which they have used against shipping. These have been stored in underground facilities and can be deployed on mobile launchers disguised as civilian lorries. Their arsenal also includes aerial “kamikaze drones” carrying a small but deadly explosive device, again based on technology supplied by Iran. The Houthis have also built surface drones to carry explosives to attack shipping, including skiffs. Admiral Vasileios Gryparis of Greece's Hellenic Navy, whose ships form part of the Aspides operation, said the Houthis have demonstrated an ability to adapt relatively crude technology to allow them to direct missiles towards their targets using their Automatic Identification System. “There are also devices on the market specifically for AIS that they programme and put inside their weapons,” he said. “They are helping their weapons to be directed directly to your ships. And these devices cost less than $150.” Joshua Hutchinson, managing director of intelligence and risk at Ambrey, global maritime risk management experts, told The National this technology allows “last mile engagement”, with the target, making it much more difficult for a ship to take evasive action. The Houthis have also refined the targets they choose to attack and are “very clear” that they are targeting US, UK, Israeli operated or affiliated vessels. “Anyone that falls outside of that scope is allowed to transit under the Houthi mandate through the Red Sea,” said Mr Hutchinson. The captain of a container ship described the extraordinary level of vigilance that is crucial to protect the crew and vessel from the threat of armed drones, missiles and piracy attacks in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Captain BP, who agreed to give only his initials, saw a tanker after it was hit by a Houthi missile in August and said the crew on board his vessel sailing to Libya needed reassurance as tensions ran high. “We saw a tanker burning, saw a lot of black smoke and we had got news that it was targeted,” the 46-year-old Indian captain who has sailed across the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden four times over the past year told The National . “I have to keep the crew motivated, keep their spirits up so I told them not to panic, to calm down, be vigilant and keep moving.” The Indian captain said staying in contact with naval warships patrolling the area and closely watching the radar to pick up approaching boats was vital. “I have sailed before in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden and we take normal precautions like rigging razor wire and keeping additional watch but things are totally different now,” he said. “We can take many precautions but if there is a drone or missile attack, we cannot do anything. We have had boats chasing us but luckily we have not been in an attack.” Captain Avhilash Rawat was not as fortunate. The 40-year-old was walking along a gangway of the Marlin Luanda in January, on his way to the bridge, when suddenly a missile hit and “the whole ship shook”. He was awarded the Exceptional Bravery at Sea Award by the International Maritime Organisation after battling the fire that broke out on board for 24 hours. Ships that have been less fortunate include the True Confidence. Three of the bulk carrier's crew were killed and at least four wounded in a missile attack off the coast of Yemen. Other ships to be hit include the MV Sounion , which was carrying 150,000 tonnes of crude and caught fire after being attacked on August 21. One precautions captains have taken is to turn off their ship's AIS transponders, which give their location to other vessels. They are allowed to do this under international maritime law if they believe their AIS might compromise their safety. In its safety recommendations to shipping, Aspides says “turning AIS off saves lives”. Since February, 85 per cent of vessels that were targeted had their AIS on, while only 5 per cent of vessels with their AIS off were hit. Admiral Gryparis said this tactic has been so successful that ship owners have been calling Aspides to ask if they could help spot vessels “they had been trying to find for four days” before they emerged “200 miles east” in the Arabian Sea. Mr Hutchinson said that turning off AIS “does not mean you won't be targeted, and it does not mean you won't be hit. “But it does mean it will make it more difficult for accuracy if fired upon.” The Houthis have also become more adept at choosing the ships they wish to attack, broadcasting radio messages to ships they deem permitted to transit. “They are very clear who they're targeting,” said Mr Hutchinson. “Anyone who falls outside of that scope is allowed to transit under the Houthi mandate through the Red Sea.” After they began their onslaught, the Houthis also started an information war aimed at instilling fear into ship owners. An email campaign began in February this year and has been directed by the Humanitarian Operations Command Centre, set up by the Houthis to liaise with the shipping industry. These initial emails alerted the industry to a Houthi-imposed travel ban on certain vessels, although they did not explicitly warn companies of an imminent attack. But messages sent after May were more menacing and at least two Greek-operated shipping companies that received threats have decided to end such voyages. A senior executive at a Greek shipping company in the last few weeks received an email in his personal inbox which had come from the Houthis. The message, which was also sent to the manager's business email address, warned that one of the company's vessels was at risk of being attacked. The Greek-managed ship had docked at an Israeli port and would be “directly targeted by the Yemeni Armed Forces in any area they deem appropriate,” read the message. The threats were also, for the first time in recent months, directed at entire fleets rather than an individual vessel. From day one, with their propaganda video of the Galaxy Leader attack, the Houthis have also posted material on Telegram, TikTok, and other social media platforms celebrating their disruption of shipping and condemning the US and Israel. “Victory on the awareness front is more important than victory on the military front,” senior Houthi official Mohammed Al Bukhaiti, wrote on X in March. Aspides has a dedicated rebuttal unit to blunt the Houthis propaganda efforts, says Admiral Gryparis. “Adding to the complexity of these physical threats is the insidious nature of propaganda campaigns orchestrated by the Houthi forces,” he said. “This persistent misinformation campaign seeks to intimidate the maritime industry by inflating the perception of their capabilities. Intelligence has systematically debunked many of these claims, with an estimated 60 per cent of their purported victories proven false.” In December 2023, as the tempo of Houthi attacks increased, the US formed Operation Prosperity Guardian, a multinational security initiative involving 10 countries including the UK , Bahrain and Seychelles. The US and UK then launched Operation Poseidon Archer in January, a mixture of air strikes and missile attacks against Houthi targets. The EU followed with Aspides in February and so far naval vessels from Greece, Italy, France, Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands have taken part. Such was the success of the UK’s HMS Diamond air defence guided missile destroyer in shooting down Houthi drones that its captain, Commander Peter Evans, was placed under sanctions by Iran. Israel’s armed forces also carried out air strikes against targets in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen in July and September. These were initially a response to attacks on Tel Aviv and central Israel. While all the militaries who have taken part in the operations are keen to emphasise their successes from the overwhelming firepower they’ve been able to deploy, others are less sure. A IISS report published this month says none of the military action has “seriously degraded the capability of the Houthis to launch attacks, nor to smuggle weapons from Iran and other countries”. Within Yemen “the attacks against Israeli and Western shipping have significantly strengthened the political position of the Houthis, despite their limited effect in military terms”. While Prosperity Guardian and Aspides have “saved the lives of civilian sailors”, the operations “have failed to reassure the international shipping industry sufficiently for traffic”. Dr Stavros Karamperidis, a lecturer in maritime economics and the head of the maritime transport research group at Plymouth Business School, told The National that “we have an escalation, and it seems that the overall operational air strikes that the US and the coalition are doing are not making huge impact on the Houthis”. Against that backdrop, transits are hitting an all-time low of 200 a month – compared with 1,000 to 1,500 a month before the attacks began. Ship operators who may have connections to the UK, US or Israel, however tenuous, have rerouted vessels around the Cape of Good Hope. It’s a journey that adds at least 30 per cent more time and around $1 million in additional fuel costs per diversion, according to IISS calculations. Dr Karamperidis said half of tankers and dry bulk carriers are still passing through the Red Sea while liquefied natural gas carriers are going around the Cape. The costs of a longer journey can be offset by not having to pay the added insurance costs for navigating through the Red Sea. But Louise Nevill, UK chief executive for marine, cargo and logistics at the broker Marsh told The National that “currently, we are seeing premiums as high as 2 per cent on vessel value for a single Red Sea transit amid fluctuating insurer appetite”. Nils Haupt of Hapag-Lloyd said that “insurance premiums are still sky high” and his company is experiencing “one to seven per cent of the insured value of the vessel per voyage, if you indeed find an insurer who would accept the risk”. “We still avoid the Red Sea, many competitors as well. We don´t believe the issue will be solved short-term.” The attacks meant a spike in rates that operators are able to charge. Charges for transporting a 40-foot container from China to Europe through the key waterway surged to about $4,000 in January, according to the Drewry World Container Index, which tracks container freight rates on eight major routes to and from the US, Europe and Asia. That is a 248 per cent jump from $1,148 from November 21, the week the attacks began, and a 140 per cent increase from $1,667 on December 23, data from London-based Drewry showed. Data released this month from the Bank of America show that across 2024, the Red Sea situation led to rates more than doubling, despite a 10 per cent net increase in the global fleet. The increased shipping costs means there is a “significant risk” to the prospects of an economic pickup in the region, UN trade officials warned. The UN's trade and development agency said “significant risks remain as widening conflicts spur tensions throughout the region, with ripple effects for international shipping in the Red Sea”. The risks are particularly concentrated in Israel , Lebanon , Yemen and the Palestinian territories, says an annual trade and development report. But the country most directly affected is Egypt, which obtains substantial revenue from traffic sailing through the Suez Canal. According to the most recent figures, revenue fell to $7.2 billion in its 2023-24 financial year from $9.4 billion the year before. Red Sea ports have seen a decline in trade activity, particularly those in Egypt, Israel, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. But while the economies of the region suffer, the UN believes that the Houthis themselves are earning $2.2 billion a year from shaking down ship operators. “The Houthis allegedly collected illegal fees from a few shipping agencies to allow their ships to sail through the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden without being attacked,” the UN report for the Security Council says, quoting anonymous sources. “The sources estimate the Houthis' earnings from these illegal safe-transit fees to be about $180 million per month.” Reflecting on a year of Houthi attacks, Mr Hutchinson said the Houthis “aren't going away” and he doesn’t anticipate “any material changes for the next six months”. “I think we have to remind ourselves of their ideology and that they want to be recognised as a legitimate government,” he said. “Will they continue to attack the commercial shipping industry? Their current mandate says that as soon as the war in Gaza has stopped, then they will stop. In reality, that can only be proven when it happens.” While the Red Sea “is topical, it's dramatic, it's explosions, it's rockets, it's missiles” he said the shipping industry is “very good when a crisis happens”. “We are heading into a new normal and going into 2025 we have to accept that this threat is here to stay. That’s the world we live in – the new normal is instability.”

How the Red Sea threat has surged despite US-led naval patrols

Houthi attacks on shipping routes have lasted persisted for more than a year, with no end in sight