Military spending in the Middle East has increased by 14 per cent in the past year as the region seeks greater security amid continued crises, an influential UK think tank publication has disclosed.
The Military Balance 2025 shows that countries are rapidly rearming over concerns of spiralling conflict from the Israel-Gaza war. The report, from the International Institute for Strategic Studies, also found that worldwide military spending had increased by more than 7 per cent, rising to $2.46 trillion in a “deteriorating security environment”.
Many Gulf countries concentrated spending on missile defence systems, buying significant numbers of US Patriot and South Korean Cheongung II interceptors. Armed drones have become increasingly sought-after by Gulf countries following the US demonstrating their effectiveness in the 2000s.
Emile Hokayem, the IISS's Middle East expert, told The National that the region is “in the high-risk zone right now” with the potential for Iran to develop up to two nuclear weapons within six months.
Mr Hokayem emphasised the “great appetite” in Israel to attack Iran’s nuclear sites if its intelligence discovered Tehran had decided on a “breakout” in bomb making. But he also suggested that US President Donald Trump would be “unwilling to risk it” with a joint American attack.
“However, I would expect considerable nuclear brinkmanship in next nine months,” he warned.
The “fragile security environment”, the report's authors said, had led to a “very strong” defence investment, with Gulf countries spending on average 4 per cent of GDP on the military, double what most Nato countries outlay.
“This average masks the fact that the region is home to some of the largest spenders as a proportion of GDP,” the authors said. “This includes Algeria, which now spends 8.2 per cent of GDP on defence – second only to Ukraine globally – as well as Israel and Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia remained the Middle East’s biggest defence spender with a $72 billion budget, followed by Israel on $34 billion.”
Algeria, Iraq and Israel recorded the highest rates of growth “amid a worsening security situation” with the October 7 Hamas attacks against Israel “precipitating an increasingly internationalised conflict”.
Gulf states, as well as Israel, are also investing in their domestic defence industries that “continued apace” as the countries seek to secure their own sovereign supply chains while developing new technologies, the Military Balance reported.
The publication also highlighted the Emirates’ decision to become the first Gulf country to publicly unveil a national defence strategy. “Its focus on advanced technology, the national defence industry and human capital as key drivers of future growth also help it to project the image of a future-focused force,” it said.
The report pointed to progress on a GCC Early Warning Study that will take forward plans for a Gulf-wide integrated missile defence systems to deter threats, particularly from Iran.
Tehran’s direct ballistic missile attacks on Israel in April and October last year added “new urgency to the long-standing goal of improving air and missile defence” in the Gulf. This was hastened by Israel’s tiered air defence system including Iron Dome that shot down many of the Iranian weapons.
Israel’s air strike retaliation in late October also underscored its military superiority over Iran and “exposed weaknesses in Iran’s capabilities” with debilitating attacks on the country’s air defence system and missile production centres. This had left Tehran’s leadership with a “strategic dilemma” that could see it accelerate its nuclear weapons project, the report said.
