Lebanese Hezbollah’s military defeat after 14 months of conflict with Israel has left it politically and militarily constrained and in no position to support its ally Iran in any future confrontation with Israel, analysts, military experts, and western diplomats told The National.
Israel’s deadly overnight strike on Iran decapitated much of Tehran’s military and nuclear leadership. And a broader regional offensive by Israel over the past two years has severely weakened Iranian proxies across the region, leaving Hezbollah unable to come to its sponsor’s aid.
Under normal circumstances “Hezbollah would definitely respond to the Iranian attack right away,” according to Mohanad Hage Ali, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Centre in Beirut and an expert on Iran’s proxies. “But now I think we are in a different phase and it's a very defeated organisation struggling to rebuild after the hits it has taken.
“Hezbollah is in a difficult position. Iran is in need of support from its closest ally and they are incapable of delivering,” he added.
With Iranian backing, Hezbollah had steadily bolstered its strength over four decades, evolving from a guerrilla movement into a powerful paramilitary force that posed a significant threat to Israel from the southern Lebanese border.
Until recently, the Lebanese group was the most powerful of Iran’s network of regional militias, serving as Tehran’s first line of defence against Israeli threats. Israel has worked to dismantle Iran’s regional proxies – known as the ‘Axis of Resistance’ – “piece by piece”, according to Mr Hage Ali. “The Lebanon part [of the axis] has been diminished significantly,” with Hezbollah suffering a “humiliating defeat”
Israel’s offensive on Hezbollah, which escalated in September 2024, took out the vast majority of the group’s top leadership and destroyed most of its arsenal.
And the group’s ouster from the southernmost part of Lebanon – south of the Litani river – means Hezbollah “no longer has military capabilities along Israel’s borders,” according to military analyst Riad Kahwaji, who is head of the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis.
By Israeli and US intelligence estimates, around 70 per cent of Hezbollah’s military capabilities have been destroyed.
Even if Hezbollah were in a position to attack, its main supply route by land through Syria was cut when its ally in neighbouring Syria, Bashar Al Assad, was deposed last December by rebels who Hezbollah themselves had spent years fighting- meaning it would have difficulties replenishing for even the limited stores it has left.
“We’ve reached a place where it’s really inconceivable that we see the organisation respond with force to [the attack on Iran] by the Israelis,” Mr Hage Ali said.
“I’m pretty sure Hezbollah will do nothing in this situation,” said Gen Mounir Shehadeh, who until recently was the Lebanese government's co-ordinator with the UN peacekeeping mission in south Lebanon (Unifil).
Even Hezbollah’s statement condemning the Israeli attacks - which it described as having ”no justification” - lacked its typical vitriolic and violent undertones, warning the Israel’s actions would not go unpunished but little else in terms of threats.
Despite Hezbollah not being in a position to retaliate, a potential intervention which could drag Lebanon into yet another deadly conflict had nonetheless worried western diplomats.
“Hezbollah’s intervention was the question mark that has worried Lebanese in recent days, the concern that a resumption of war could come in connection with what’s happening in Iran. So that’s where our main concern lies,” a western diplomatic source said.
Schools across the south and in the southern suburbs have closed their doors and instructed their students to stay home as a precaution amid fears of escalation.
Lebanese leaders and western diplomats are aware that Lebanon’s relative stability is hanging in the balance. The US and France scrambled to reach a shaky, if uneven, ceasefire in Lebanon. But the ceasefire, and Hezbollah’s defeat, has led to a de facto political reality: Israel can strike at will in Lebanon, but Hezbollah – and Lebanon – would be severely punished for attacking or retaliating.
“The important thing for us is to preserve Lebanon and to ensure that there are no misguided ideas of supporting the war from Lebanon, or any kind of intervention whether it be by Hezbollah or any other groups,” the western diplomat said.
Diplomatic sources previously told The National: “Hezbollah thought it would be like 2006, and that the vague terms of the ceasefire would work in their favour,” the source said, referring to the agreement that ended the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, and which forms the basis of the current truce. “But this is not 2006.”
Lebanon has effectively developed into a new status quo in the days following its November 2024 ceasefire with Israel: Israel continues to occupy five points of Lebanese territory as it bombs parts of Lebanon on a near-daily basis. Hezbollah, militarily depleted and wary of inflicting further war on its population, has largely remained unresponsive.
According to Mr Hage Ali, “Hezbollah can launch an attack for sure, and kill Israelis. But the question is what will happen next for them. They can’t ensure there won’t be any follow up attack [by Isreal]. It’s not an easy one for them.”
Meanwhile, Iran – isolated, bereft of its once ample proxy forces, and scrambling to restructure its command structure after the Israeli attack – has been left to fend for itself against Israel.
“Iran has joined the axis of sitting ducks,” said Mr Hage Ali.
