Lebanese Hezbollah’s military defeat after 14 months of conflict with Israel has left it politically and militarily constrained and in no position to support its ally Iran in any future confrontation with Israel, analysts, military experts, and western diplomats told The National.
Israel’s deadly overnight strike on Iran decapitated much of Tehran’s military and nuclear leadership. And a broader regional offensive by Israel over the past two years has severely weakened Iranian proxies across the region, leaving Hezbollah unable to come to its sponsor’s aid.
Under normal circumstances “Hezbollah would definitely respond to the Iranian attack right away,” according to Mohanad Hage Ali, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Centre in Beirut and an expert on Iran’s proxies. “But now I think we are in a different phase and it's a very defeated organisation struggling to rebuild after the hits it has taken.
“Hezbollah is in a difficult position. Iran is in need of support from its closest ally and they are incapable of delivering,” he added.
With Iranian backing, Hezbollah had steadily bolstered its strength over four decades, evolving from a guerrilla movement into a powerful paramilitary force that posed a significant threat to Israel from the southern Lebanese border.
Until recently, the Lebanese group was the most powerful of Iran’s network of regional militias, serving as Tehran’s first line of defence against Israeli threats. Israel has worked to dismantle Iran’s regional proxies – known as the ‘Axis of Resistance’ – “piece by piece”, according to Mr Hage Ali. “The Lebanon part [of the axis] has been diminished significantly,” with Hezbollah suffering a “humiliating defeat”
Israel’s offensive on Hezbollah, which escalated in September 2024, took out the vast majority of the group’s top leadership and destroyed most of its arsenal.
And the group’s ouster from the southernmost part of Lebanon – south of the Litani river – means Hezbollah “no longer has military capabilities along Israel’s borders,” according to military analyst Riad Kahwaji, who is head of the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis.
By Israeli and US intelligence estimates, around 70 per cent of Hezbollah’s military capabilities have been destroyed.
Even if Hezbollah were in a position to attack, its main supply route by land through Syria was cut when its ally in neighbouring Syria, Bashar Al Assad, was deposed last December by rebels who Hezbollah themselves had spent years fighting- meaning it would have difficulties replenishing for even the limited stores it has left.
“We’ve reached a place where it’s really inconceivable that we see the organisation respond with force to [the attack on Iran] by the Israelis,” Mr Hage Ali said.
“I’m pretty sure Hezbollah will do nothing in this situation,” said Gen Mounir Shehadeh, who until recently was the Lebanese government's co-ordinator with the UN peacekeeping mission in south Lebanon (Unifil).
Even Hezbollah’s statement condemning the Israeli attacks - which it described as having ”no justification” - lacked its typical vitriolic and violent undertones, warning the Israel’s actions would not go unpunished but little else in terms of threats.
Despite Hezbollah not being in a position to retaliate, a potential intervention which could drag Lebanon into yet another deadly conflict had nonetheless worried western diplomats.
“Hezbollah’s intervention was the question mark that has worried Lebanese in recent days, the concern that a resumption of war could come in connection with what’s happening in Iran. So that’s where our main concern lies,” a western diplomatic source said.
Schools across the south and in the southern suburbs have closed their doors and instructed their students to stay home as a precaution amid fears of escalation.
Lebanese leaders and western diplomats are aware that Lebanon’s relative stability is hanging in the balance. The US and France scrambled to reach a shaky, if uneven, ceasefire in Lebanon. But the ceasefire, and Hezbollah’s defeat, has led to a de facto political reality: Israel can strike at will in Lebanon, but Hezbollah – and Lebanon – would be severely punished for attacking or retaliating.
“The important thing for us is to preserve Lebanon and to ensure that there are no misguided ideas of supporting the war from Lebanon, or any kind of intervention whether it be by Hezbollah or any other groups,” the western diplomat said.
Diplomatic sources previously told The National: “Hezbollah thought it would be like 2006, and that the vague terms of the ceasefire would work in their favour,” the source said, referring to the agreement that ended the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, and which forms the basis of the current truce. “But this is not 2006.”
Lebanon has effectively developed into a new status quo in the days following its November 2024 ceasefire with Israel: Israel continues to occupy five points of Lebanese territory as it bombs parts of Lebanon on a near-daily basis. Hezbollah, militarily depleted and wary of inflicting further war on its population, has largely remained unresponsive.
According to Mr Hage Ali, “Hezbollah can launch an attack for sure, and kill Israelis. But the question is what will happen next for them. They can’t ensure there won’t be any follow up attack [by Isreal]. It’s not an easy one for them.”
Meanwhile, Iran – isolated, bereft of its once ample proxy forces, and scrambling to restructure its command structure after the Israeli attack – has been left to fend for itself against Israel.
“Iran has joined the axis of sitting ducks,” said Mr Hage Ali.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
Abu Dhabi GP schedule
Friday: First practice - 1pm; Second practice - 5pm
Saturday: Final practice - 2pm; Qualifying - 5pm
Sunday: Etihad Airways Abu Dhabi Grand Prix (55 laps) - 5.10pm
What vitamins do we know are beneficial for living in the UAE
Vitamin D: Highly relevant in the UAE due to limited sun exposure; supports bone health, immunity and mood.
Vitamin B12: Important for nerve health and energy production, especially for vegetarians, vegans and individuals with absorption issues.
Iron: Useful only when deficiency or anaemia is confirmed; helps reduce fatigue and support immunity.
Omega-3 (EPA/DHA): Supports heart health and reduces inflammation, especially for those who consume little fish.
First Person
Richard Flanagan
Chatto & Windus
Timeline
2012-2015
The company offers payments/bribes to win key contracts in the Middle East
May 2017
The UK SFO officially opens investigation into Petrofac’s use of agents, corruption, and potential bribery to secure contracts
September 2021
Petrofac pleads guilty to seven counts of failing to prevent bribery under the UK Bribery Act
October 2021
Court fines Petrofac £77 million for bribery. Former executive receives a two-year suspended sentence
December 2024
Petrofac enters into comprehensive restructuring to strengthen the financial position of the group
May 2025
The High Court of England and Wales approves the company’s restructuring plan
July 2025
The Court of Appeal issues a judgment challenging parts of the restructuring plan
August 2025
Petrofac issues a business update to execute the restructuring and confirms it will appeal the Court of Appeal decision
October 2025
Petrofac loses a major TenneT offshore wind contract worth €13 billion. Holding company files for administration in the UK. Petrofac delisted from the London Stock Exchange
November 2025
180 Petrofac employees laid off in the UAE
WOMAN AND CHILD
Director: Saeed Roustaee
Starring: Parinaz Izadyar, Payman Maadi
Rating: 4/5
FIGHT CARD
1. Featherweight 66kg
Ben Lucas (AUS) v Ibrahim Kendil (EGY)
2. Lightweight 70kg
Mohammed Kareem Aljnan (SYR) v Alphonse Besala (CMR)
3. Welterweight 77kg
Marcos Costa (BRA) v Abdelhakim Wahid (MAR)
4. Lightweight 70kg
Omar Ramadan (EGY) v Abdimitalipov Atabek (KGZ)
5. Featherweight 66kg
Ahmed Al Darmaki (UAE) v Kagimu Kigga (UGA)
6. Catchweight 85kg
Ibrahim El Sawi (EGY) v Iuri Fraga (BRA)
7. Featherweight 66kg
Yousef Al Husani (UAE) v Mohamed Allam (EGY)
8. Catchweight 73kg
Mostafa Radi (PAL) v Abdipatta Abdizhali (KGZ)
9. Featherweight 66kg
Jaures Dea (CMR) v Andre Pinheiro (BRA)
10. Catchweight 90kg
Tarek Suleiman (SYR) v Juscelino Ferreira (BRA)
Hotel Silence
Auður Ava Ólafsdóttir
Pushkin Press
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Akeed
Based: Muscat
Launch year: 2018
Number of employees: 40
Sector: Online food delivery
Funding: Raised $3.2m since inception
Super Rugby play-offs
Quarter-finals
- Hurricanes 35, ACT 16
- Crusaders 17, Highlanders 0
- Lions 23, Sharks 21
- Chiefs 17, Stormers 11
Semi-finals
Saturday, July 29
- Crusaders v Chiefs, 12.35pm (UAE)
- Lions v Hurricanes, 4.30pm
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
Kanguva
Director: Siva
Stars: Suriya, Bobby Deol, Disha Patani, Yogi Babu, Redin Kingsley
ANATOMY%20OF%20A%20FALL
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJustine%20Triet%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESandra%20Huller%2C%20Swann%20Arlaud%2C%20Milo%20Machado-Graner%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%205%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Jigra
Starring: Alia Bhatt, Vedang Raina, Manoj Pahwa, Harsh Singh
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The Outsider
Stephen King, Penguin
Credits
Produced by: Colour Yellow Productions and Eros Now
Director: Mudassar Aziz
Cast: Sonakshi Sinha, Jimmy Sheirgill, Jassi Gill, Piyush Mishra, Diana Penty, Aparshakti Khurrana
Star rating: 2.5/5
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
The President's Cake
Director: Hasan Hadi
Starring: Baneen Ahmad Nayyef, Waheed Thabet Khreibat, Sajad Mohamad Qasem
Rating: 4/5
Our Time Has Come
Alyssa Ayres, Oxford University Press
White hydrogen: Naturally occurring hydrogen
Chromite: Hard, metallic mineral containing iron oxide and chromium oxide
Ultramafic rocks: Dark-coloured rocks rich in magnesium or iron with very low silica content
Ophiolite: A section of the earth’s crust, which is oceanic in nature that has since been uplifted and exposed on land
Olivine: A commonly occurring magnesium iron silicate mineral that derives its name for its olive-green yellow-green colour
Common%20symptoms%20of%20MS
%3Cul%3E%0A%3Cli%3EFatigue%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3Enumbness%20and%20tingling%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3ELoss%20of%20balance%20and%20dizziness%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EStiffness%20or%20spasms%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3ETremor%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EPain%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EBladder%20problems%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EBowel%20trouble%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EVision%20problems%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EProblems%20with%20memory%20and%20thinking%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3C%2Ful%3E%0A
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Picture of Joumblatt and Hariri breaking bread sets Twitter alight
Mr Joumblatt’s pessimism regarding the Lebanese political situation didn’t stop him from enjoying a cheerful dinner on Tuesday with several politicians including Mr Hariri.
Caretaker Culture Minister Ghattas Khoury tweeted a picture of the group sitting around a table at a discrete fish restaurant in Beirut’s upscale Sodeco area.
Mr Joumblatt told The National that the fish served at Kelly’s Fish lounge had been very good.
“They really enjoyed their time”, remembers the restaurant owner. “Mr Hariri was taking selfies with everybody”.
Mr Hariri and Mr Joumblatt often have dinner together to discuss recent political developments.
Mr Joumblatt was a close ally of Mr Hariri’s assassinated father, former prime minister Rafik Hariri. The pair were leading figures in the political grouping against the 15-year Syrian occupation of Lebanon that ended after mass protests in 2005 in the wake of Rafik Hariri’s murder. After the younger Hariri took over his father’s mantle in 2004, the relationship with Mr Joumblatt endured.
However, the pair have not always been so close. In the run-up to the election last year, Messrs Hariri and Joumblatt went months without speaking over an argument regarding the new proportional electoral law to be used for the first time. Mr Joumblatt worried that a proportional system, which Mr Hariri backed, would see the influence of his small sect diminished.
With so much of Lebanese politics agreed in late-night meetings behind closed doors, the media and pundits put significant weight on how regularly, where and with who senior politicians meet.
In the picture, alongside Messrs Khoury and Hariri were Mr Joumbatt and his wife Nora, PSP politician Wael Abou Faour and Egyptian ambassador to Lebanon Nazih el Nagari.
The picture of the dinner led to a flurry of excitement on Twitter that it signified an imminent government formation. “God willing, white smoke will rise soon and Walid Beik [a nickname for Walid Joumblatt] will accept to give up the minister of industry”, one user replied to the tweet. “Blessings to you…We would like you to form a cabinet”, wrote another.
The next few days will be crucial in determining whether these wishes come true.
The specs: 2019 BMW i8 Roadster
Price, base: Dh708,750
Engine: 1.5L three-cylinder petrol, plus 11.6 kWh lithium-ion battery
Transmission: Six-speed automatic
Power: 374hp (total)
Torque: 570Nm (total)
Fuel economy, combined: 2.0L / 100km
RESULTS
4pm: Al Bastakiya Listed US$250,000 (Dirt) 1,900m
Winner: Yulong Warrior, Richard Mullen (jockey), Satish Seemar (trainer)
4.35pm: Mahab Al Shimaal Group 3 $200,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner: Jordan Sport, Adrie de Vries, Fawzi Nass
5.10pm: Nad Al Sheba Conditions $200,000 (Turf) 1,200m
Winner: Jungle Cat, William Buick, Charlie Appleby
5.45pm: Burj Nahaar Group 3 $200,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Kimbear, Patrick Dobbs, Doug Watson
6.20pm: Jebel Hatta Group 1 $300,000 (T) 1,800m
Winner: Blair House, James Doyle, Charlie Appleby
6.55pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-3 Group 1 $400,000 (D) 2,000m
Winner: North America, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar
7.30pm: Dubai City of Gold Group 2 $250,000 (T) 2,410m
Winner: Hawkbill, William Buick, Charlie Appleby.
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.0-litre%20four-cylinder%20turbo%20hybrid%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E680hp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E1%2C020Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E9-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E7.5L%2F100km%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEarly%202024%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh530%2C000%20(estimate)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Honeymoonish
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Elie%20El%20Samaan%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENour%20Al%20Ghandour%2C%20Mahmoud%20Boushahri%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
KLOPP%20AT%20LIVERPOOL
%3Cp%3EYears%3A%20October%202015%20-%20June%202024%3Cbr%3ETotal%20games%3A%20491%3Cbr%3EWin%20percentage%3A%2060.9%25%3Cbr%3EMajor%20trophies%3A%206%20(Premier%20League%20x%201%2C%20Champions%20League%20x%201%2C%20FA%20Cup%20x%201%2C%20League%20Cup%20x%202%2C%20Fifa%20Club%20World%20Cup%20x1)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
