An air of uncertainty surrounds US President Donald Trump and potential American involvement in Israel's war against Iran.
Concern is mounting across the region that US strikes on Iran would provoke retaliation and make American bases a target.
While Tehran has long been an adversary of Washington and a source of international concern over its nuclear ambitions, Middle East governments and the broader international community have warned the Americans that getting involved in this war could have catastrophic consequences. Iran itself has warned of unleashing “hell” in the region if the US intervenes.
As Mr Trump considers whether or not to directly involve US forces, one of Iran’s largest support networks remains deeply embedded in Iraq. Powerful militant groups, tied to Tehran through years of military and strategic co-operation, are watching developments closely and escalating their threats of military action to back their ally.
Sources close to the Iraqi government said some of the most prominent militant groups have made it known this week that any US military intervention would trigger a response.
“They told the government that they would go in and that they disagree with the decision to stand by,” one source said.
Baghdad decided at the start of this war not to be part of it. The government wants to avoid turning the country into a battlefield for a regional conflict.
One source said that the Iraqi government has already “warned the militias against any involvement,” fearing further escalation.
“It is a big risk and Iraq would pay a heavy price, which it cannot afford,” the source added. “It has just started rebuilding its security and is stabilising as a country.”
Iraqi militant factions operate on their own terms, but military action to support Iran would not be straightforward and could result in severe consequences, the government sources added.
“The US know where those factions are based and can easily eliminate them if they chose to,” one source said. “They can target them one by one.”
Hassan Janabi, a former Iraqi ambassador and minister, told The National: “It is clear that armed factions will see US involvement as an opportunity to carry out attacks on US sites, including the embassy in Baghdad.”
Although direct American involvement would not be a surprise, it would “increase the anger of the Iraqi public, which is hostile to Israel and America, as well as the Iran-aligned armed factions that are ideologically and strategically tied to Tehran,” Mr Janabi added.
He added that the Iraqi government led by Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani is attempting to portray “solidarity with Iran by condemning the Israeli aggression, because it is ultimately unable to confront the military escalation taking place”.
The threat of a full regional war is more serious now than at any point in the past two years. If Mr Trump sends warplanes to support Israel, Iraqi militias are unlikely to be passive.
While the threat isn’t entirely new and the scale and potential impact of this type of involvement is uncertain, these Iraqi factions, known as Fasael, have been adopting a more serious tone as the conflict intensifies and enters a second week.
Powerful Shiite cleric Moqtada Al Sadr said on Friday that an attack could take place at any time and against any country, depending on the decision “entrusted” to Mr Trump.
“This means that the unjust decision will, by divine wisdom and divine power, bring calamity and loss upon the man who issued this decision," he added. "It will bring calamity and loss upon him, as has already happened.”
On Thursday, the Iran-backed Shiite militia Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq vowed to attack US military bases across the Middle East if the US enters the war.
“We affirm, with greater clarity, that if the United States enters this war, the ‘crazy’ Trump will lose all the trillions he dreams of seizing from this region,” militia leader Abu Ali Al Askari said in a statement. He added that operational plans had already been drawn up.
Another Tehran-backed armed faction in Iraq, the True Promise Corps, has also threatened to join the war. The group, part of a shadowy coalition known as the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, issued a warning Monday that it would strike Israeli targets and its regional allies.
“We declare that all the sites and camps of the entity [Israel] and anyone who supports it in the region are targets for us,” the group’s leader, Mohammed Al Tamimi, said in a statement posted on X.
The escalating threats come after White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Mr Trump will make a decision “within the next two weeks”, suggesting that much would depend on the outcome of more potential talks with Iran.
“In light of the substantial chance that negotiations with Iran may or may not take place in the near future, the President will make his decision within the next two weeks,” she said.
Just 24 hours earlier, Mr Trump said he had not made up his mind. “I may do it,” he told reporters. “I may not do it.”
One source suggested to The National that Washington is “reluctant to get directly involved,” pointing out that “Trump has repeatedly stated his desire to de-escalate conflicts in the region and end foreign entanglements.”
It remains to be seen whether or not the Trump administration will stand by and watch Iranian missiles continue to strike Tel Aviv, especially after talking about “hitting hard”, repeat warnings about Iran’s nuclear threat and five failed rounds of negotiations.
'Survival mode'
Renad Mansour, director of the Iraq Initiative at London's Chatham House, believes Iraq's armed factions are in “survival mode”.
“The situation has gone beyond their control,” he said. “They don't know where it's going or where it will end, and it's about surviving effectively.”
Baghdad does not want to create instability following years of calm. However, “what's happening now is risking the equilibrium that Iraq has enjoyed", Mr Mansour added.
“So for this reason, armed groups – certainly senior PMF groups – have tried to rhetorically signal their support for Iran and condemn Israel.”
Iraq’s powerful militias played an active role early in the Israel-Gaza war, launching attacks on US bases and claiming that they fired rockets towards Tel Aviv.
But that momentum shifted following a quiet, unannounced truce that led Iran-backed factions to halt attacks on US forces. The truce, involving Washington, Baghdad and Tehran, was reached in February 2024.
Mina Aldroubi contributed to this report from Abu Dhabi
