Hezbollah 'divided' over whether to scale back its arsenal amid US pressure to disarm

Hezbollah is reviewing a US proposal urging the group to disarm within a few months, Lebanese sources told The National before a visit by US envoy Thomas Barrack on Monday.

The Lebanese group, which is under mounting US pressure and daily Israeli strikes, is internally divided over whether to scale back its arsenal, an informed source close to the matter told The National. The "carrot and stick" US plan could bring reconstruction funds and an end to Israel's attacks.

The increased US pressure on Hezbollah comes amid a major political shift in the Middle East, which has resulted in Iran’s proxies being significantly weakened since the Hamas-led attacks in Israel on October 7, 2023. Israel’s devastating war on Gaza prompted many of these proxies to launch their own attacks against Israel.

On October 8, 2023, in support of its ally, Hamas, Hezbollah initiated tit-for-tat exchanges along the Lebanon-Israel border, which Israel later escalated into a full-scale war. The conflict ended in November, leaving Hezbollah, once Iran’s most prized asset, significantly weakened, with much of its arsenal destroyed and parts of its leadership decimated. Hezbollah’s disarmament, once considered a political taboo, is now on the table.

In June, Mr Barrack, the US special envoy to Syria and ambassador to Turkey, sent a roadmap to Lebanese authorities calling on Hezbollah to relinquish its weapons across the country within a few months, in exchange for financial support and a halt of continuing Israeli military operations.

"Lebanon’s hope awakens!!! The opportunity is now. This is a historic moment to supersede the strained confessionalism of the past," M Barrack wrote on X ahead of his visit.

Hezbollah has been holding clandestine talks to decide on its future, Reuters reported on Friday. Still, observers have raised concerns about the US pressure tactics, stressing that Hezbollah’s weapons remain a highly sensitive issue in a deeply fractured country, where the group continues to enjoy broad popular support.

'Carrot and stick'

Mr Barrack's roadmap calls for a rapid disarmament of the group in return for the release of much-needed reconstruction funds for the war-ravaged country. It also calls for Israel’s withdrawal from five occupied border points it seized in October during its aerial campaign in Lebanon, and a halt to Israeli military operations, according to the source.

Mr Barrack described this approach to disarming Hezbollah as “a carrot and a stick” in an interview with The New York Times.

Under the terms of the ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel, brokered by the US and France, all armed groups in Lebanon must give up their weapons, starting from the south of the Litani River, which lies 30km from the Lebanon-Israel border. In return, Israel must withdraw from the areas in south Lebanon it seized during the war and halt its violations of Lebanese airspace.

Lebanese authorities said they have dismantled almost all of Hezbollah's infrastructure near the border with Israel since the ceasefire. But despite this progress, Israel has continued to carry out air strikes, saying it is targeting Hezbollah and accusing the group of violating the truce, which Hezbollah denies.

Lebanese authorities say Israel has violated the truce more than 3,000 times. Israeli bombardments since the ceasefire have killed least 71 civilians, according to the UN.

The US-backed Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has pledged to establish a state monopoly on weapons, while emphasising that this should be achieved through dialogue with Hezbollah, not by force. Hezbollah retains strong support within parts of the Shiite community, many of whom rely heavily on its social services in the absence of a functioning state.

On Sunday, Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem said the group was ready for peace and dialogue on the one hand, but "confrontation" on the other should such circumstances arise. "We are a people who do not submit, we will not give up our rights and dignity," he stated.

Mr Qassem said the group remained steadfast, despite the threat from Israel and others. "This threat will not make us accept surrender," he said. “How can we confront Israel when it attacks us if we didn’t have them?" he asked, in reference to the pressure for the group to hand over its weapons.

"Who is preventing Israel from entering villages and landing and killing young people, women and children inside their homes unless there is a resistance with certain capabilities capable of minimal defense?”

Observers have cautioned that dismantling the group without considering local dynamics could further destabilise Lebanon. But “for Washington, the internal complexities Lebanon faces in attempting to disarm Hezbollah are secondary; the focus is on safeguarding Israel”, the source said.

Mr Barrack’s stance aligns with that of Morgan Ortagus, the former official who oversaw the Trump administration’s Lebanon portfolio and is known for her pro-Israel position. “The US's primary concern is state monopoly on weapons and, above all, the security of Israel,” the source added.

The position is motivated by a desire to avoid a repeat of the 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel, which ended with UN Security Council Resolution 1701, calling for the disarmament of the group. However, Hezbollah began rebuilding its arsenal soon after. “It still haunts Israelis,” the source said.

Today, the situation is drastically different. Hezbollah is grappling with acute financial strain, a decimated chain of command, and severed supply routes following the ousting of its ally Bashar Al Assad in Syria, all amid broader regional shifts in the balance of power.

Western diplomats have previously told The National that the intense pressure placed on the new Lebanese government, embraced by international powers, and marked by a significant decline in Hezbollah’s political influence could jeopardise its stability.

The US pressure tactics could also backfire, the source warned. “There’s a risk Hezbollah could feel cornered and respond defensively,” the source said.