Any Israeli attempt to reoccupy Gaza in its entirety would need an estimated force of 25,000 soldiers to strike into the main urban areas, military experts have told The National.
The city of Deir Al Balah, in the middle of the strip would probably be the first target, which would require considerable aircraft and artillery commitments, they said. If Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu authorises his reported “updated strategy” to reoccupy all of Gaza, the major deployment of ground forces, alongside heavy firepower, would inevitably result in high casualties on all sides, they warned.
The troops, in addition to the three divisions already present, would draw on Israel’s combat reserves, which are already depleted in its battles against Iran, Hezbollah, Syria and the Houthis.
Fighting in urban areas is extremely dangerous, and almost 50 Israeli soldiers have been killed in the last three months in Gaza. This has led to questions in Israel over the high fatality count in pursuit of the return of the estimated 20 living hostages.
Furthermore, Israel would have to call up a considerable number of reservists from a force that has been on operations for nearly two years.
Hostage operations
An operational priority would involve the use of multiple reconnaissance drones to map the new layout of urban areas that have become “moonscapes” following previous bombardments.
For Deir Al Balah, a battalion of combat engineers would be needed to flatten the broad avenues of approach to prevent vehicles coming under fire from any remaining high-rise buildings or strongpoints, while also removing IEDs and booby traps.
Special forces from the Samur squadron of “tunnel rats” would simultaneously filter into the area seeking to find and release the remaining hostages.
That operation would be done as speedily as possible because Hamas had made it clear if the Israelis go into the city the hostages will be killed immediately, said Dr Lynette Nusbacher, an expert on Israeli military doctrine. “The Israelis are going to try very hard to snatch them fairly briskly as a cordon is established,” she said.
Heavy brigades
That cordon would require at least five brigades to prevent any Hamas fighters from escaping as strongholds are pounded with firepower. The Israelis would then use “mobility corridors” to prevent Hamas from moving from city block to city block.
“Joint fires”, the name given to mixed artillery and air power salvos, would be further deployed to pummel any strongpoints in the knowledge that no civilians are present.
“To hold with boots on the ground, the Israelis are going to use maximal application of air power and artillery, they're going to absolutely pummel the place,” said Dr Nusbacher, a former British army intelligence officer.
Infantry moving in armoured vehicles would be cautiously deployed on the ground. The units would consist of armoured brigades in Merkava V tanks, including their advanced surveillance systems, as well as the D9 armoured bulldozer.
Central to the mission will be finding the underground networks via the hidden access shafts and avoiding Hamas’s well-honed guerrilla tactics, which have led to high casualties. To hold major urban areas of Gaza, the Israelis would also need to quickly build concrete strongpoints for the infantry to use as patrol bases.
Reserves dry
“The first thing, presumably, this operation will require is another substantial call-up of reservists,” said Richard Pater, director of the Anglo-Israeli Bicom think tank.
Israel can draw from a pool of 465,000 reservists to add to its deployed force of 170,000. But many of the part-time soldiers have been at war for months, which is a drain on families and the economy.
“The military is not so enthusiastic about this,” Mr Pater added. “After all, they have been only just been removing soldiers from the front in recent months.”
Dr Nusbacher said the operation would have to be phased even if the Israelis conduct a huge mobilisation. She added that the Israeli army chief was likely to be giving Mr Netanyahu’s war cabinet the difficulties over mobilisation numbers and his predicted casualty figures “that are making their blood run cold”.
Civilian own goal
Another major question in the operation, forced upon the military, will be how to remove the two million Gazan civilians from the combat zone. Central to not scoring another major humanitarian own goal will be channelling the non-combatant population to the south, using SMS messages to give directions.
“Where do you move the civilian population in the meantime?” asked Mr Pater. “That's the big question.”
Dr Nusbacher said it would be a “vast task where the population numbers are significant, and the humanitarian consequences daunting”. She added that the military would not “want to be operating in a humanitarian disaster area, which this would be”.
High casualties
Urban fighting will inevitably take a “horrific toll” on the military with deaths, injuries and psychological casualties. “Urban operations are very casualty-intensive, and if you go to Israel now you see young amputees, something not seen in a generation since the [1980s] war in Lebanon,” said Dr Nusbacher.
Another military source, linked to Israel, suggested Mr Netanyahu would still be supported by the hard-right members of his cabinet who want to take control of Gaza, even if it resulted in a slow operation with high casualties, “which looked like a quagmire”.
SPECS
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Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
BUNDESLIGA FIXTURES
Friday Stuttgart v Cologne (Kick-off 10.30pm UAE)
Saturday RB Leipzig v Hertha Berlin (5.30pm)
Mainz v Borussia Monchengladbach (5.30pm)
Bayern Munich v Eintracht Frankfurt (5.30pm)
Union Berlin v SC Freiburg (5.30pm)
Borussia Dortmund v Schalke (5.30pm)
Sunday Wolfsburg v Arminia (6.30pm)
Werder Bremen v Hoffenheim (9pm)
Bayer Leverkusen v Augsburg (11.30pm)
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre, twin-turbocharged V8
Transmission: nine-speed automatic
Power: 630bhp
Torque: 900Nm
Price: Dh810,000
Overview
Cricket World Cup League Two: Nepal, Oman, United States tri-series, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu
Fixtures
Wednesday February 5, Oman v Nepal
Thursday, February 6, Oman v United States
Saturday, February 8, United States v Nepal
Sunday, February 9, Oman v Nepal
Tuesday, February 11, Oman v United States
Wednesday, February 12, United States v Nepal
Company%20profile
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Results
Ashraf Ghani 50.64 per cent
Abdullah Abdullah 39.52 per cent
Gulbuddin Hekmatyar 3.85 per cent
Rahmatullah Nabil 1.8 per cent
Most sought after workplace benefits in the UAE
- Flexible work arrangements
- Pension support
- Mental well-being assistance
- Insurance coverage for optical, dental, alternative medicine, cancer screening
- Financial well-being incentives
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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