African Union Commission chief says 'Libyan scenario' must not be repeated in Sudan

The chairman of the African Union Commission, Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, has warned against Sudan sliding into a Libyan-style scenario as it fractures between two rival governments.

Libya has been divided since the 2011 fall of longtime ruler Muammar Qaddafi, with competing administrations and militias vying for power. Today, the country is split between the UN-backed Government of National Unity in Tripoli, led by Prime Minister Abdel Hamid Dbeibeh and Presidential Council head Mohamed Al Menfi, and the eastern-based Government of National Stability, backed by the House of Representatives and militarily dominated by Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army.

This has produced parallel administrations, overlapping claims to legitimacy and persistent militia control over territory, leaving the country fragmented.

Sudan is now showing similar fault lines: the army-backed administration in Port Sudan and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces’ (RSF) self-declared authority. In July, the RSF named a prime minister and a presidential council, a move condemned by the army-backed government as a “phantom government” and accused the group of “disregarding the suffering of the Sudanese people”.

“We had that concern from the very beginning. We didn't want to have a dislocated country, where we see in many parts emerging governments while the central government is still there,” Mr Youssouf told The National in an interview in Abu Dhabi.

“And even when we talk about the central government, we, as the African Union, when this unconstitutional change of government happened, suspended the membership of Sudan according to the rules and regulations of the continent.

“We didn't want to see the Libyan scenario repeat itself in Sudan. The African Union position was very clear. We need to continue to work with the Sovereign Council under the presidency of [Gen Abdel Fattah] Al Burhan and try to bring on board all other forces in a kind of inclusive Sudanese-led dialogue,” said Mr Youssouf.

Mr Youssouf is a Djiboutian who has held diplomatic and governmental positions both in Djibouti and at a continental level. In February, he was elected chairman of the African Union Commission, where he oversees the organisation’s efforts on peace, security and integration across Africa.

More than two years have passed since Sudan plunged into a civil war that has caused what aid organisations have described as one of the world’s worst displacement and hunger crises.

The war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by Gen Al Burhan, and the RSF, commanded by Gen Mohamed Dagalo, started in April 2023 in Khartoum before spreading across the country. Both sides have been accused of committing atrocities including ethnic cleansing, extrajudicial killings and sexual violence against civilians, including children.

“There is very clear intention from the warring parties to stop the inflow of humanitarian assistance to Sudan,” said Mr Youssouf. “We are working with the United Nations to help assist the delivery of humanitarian assistance.”

He emphasised that there can be no military solution to the conflict. “There is a need for cessation of hostilities. The African Union is ready to continue to deploy its efforts and goodwill to see how best we can really create a breakthrough.”

Sudan’s former prime minister Abdalla Hamdok told The National last week that the humanitarian crisis in the country had reached levels greater than Gaza and Ukraine combined. Famine is spreading and disease is rising, with thousands of children in the besieged city of El Fasher suffering acute malnutrition, according to Unicef.

Yet, Mr Youssouf says the Sudan crisis and other African conflicts are being sidelined on the global agenda.

“The reason is mainly because there is no particular interest from the international community to deal with the African crises, because they have no economic impact. They don’t disturb or disrupt the international trade and they don’t have implications for those countries.

“The second reason is that we have chronic crises. Maybe sometimes those countries reach a level of fatigue,” he said in reference to conflicts that drag on. “We haven't been able for the past two, three decades to resolve the Somalia crisis, for instance.”

Somalia has been mired in conflict since the central government collapsed in 1991, leading to civil war, famine and lawlessness. Despite African Union peacekeeping missions and international mediation efforts, large parts of the country remain under the control of the Al Qaeda-linked Al Shabab group, and state institutions are still fragile, making Somalia's one of the continent’s most protracted crises.

Recent US engagement

When asked about recent US engagement in some African nations, particularly in North Africa, Mr Youssouf said: “The African problems should be resolved through African solutions. But we do not turn down mediations from external players. If they can help us resolve our problems, we welcome that.”

Last week, at the invitation of the US, foreign ministers of the US, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the UAE, also known as the Quad, have engaged in extensive consultations on the conflict in Sudan, according to the State Department.

The new peace proposal called for an initial three-month truce followed by a return to civilian rule in which the Muslim Brotherhood is kept out of power.

The four countries said they had agreed a “shared set of principles” on ending the conflict. However, Sudan's army-aligned government has rejected the plan, arguing that only the Sudanese people could decide the future of their country and refusing to be left out of postwar transition.

Washington has also stepped up its engagement in Libya. Massad Boulos, senior adviser to President Donald Trump for Africa, said he met in Rome with senior officials from both western and eastern Libya. He said the US reaffirmed its commitment to supporting Libya’s path to national unity and discussed opportunities for US investment in the country’s oil and gas sector following a meeting with Libya’s Minister of Oil and Gas, Khalifa Abdulsadek.

Mr Youssouf stressed that international agreements must be grounded in African participation. “African problems need a stronger engagement from the African countries themselves, from the African Union Commission,” he said.

“Whatever beautiful agreements are signed abroad, at the end of the day, their implementation will fall on the shoulders of countries in the region and the African Union.”

He pointed to the recent peace deal between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo as an example. “If Rwanda and the DRC managed to sign an agreement under the auspices of the United States, the implementation of that agreement will depend on the countries in the region,” said Mr Youssouf. “That’s why we demand each and every time that the African Union is involved in those mediation processes.”

In June, DRC and Rwanda signed a peace agreement facilitated by the US to help end the decadeslong deadly fighting in eastern Congo while helping the US government and American companies gain access to critical minerals in the region.