After two years of war and a string of assassinations that eliminated most of its leaders, Hamas now looks like a group in survival mode, facing uncertainty.
Moreover, according to sources who deal directly with Hamas leaders, the militant group appears to be in disarray. The chain of command within its military wing is close to non-existent, and communication between its leaders in Gaza and fighters in the tunnels on the one hand and with negotiators in exile abroad on the other is difficult and infrequent.
Hamas has lost significant support among Gaza's estimated two million residents after the humanitarian crisis in the enclave bit, with hundreds of thousands going hungry and famine claiming scores of lives, the sources told The National.
“Hamas is at its weakest ever,” said one of the sources. “The only bargaining chip it now has is the hostages. Militarily, only a negligible number of active fighters are left in the field.”
Hamas has said it has no intention of surrendering its weapons as demanded by the plan put forward by US President Donald Trump to end the Gaza war, but its approval might point to a different approach.
On Friday, it said it welcomed the 20-point plan but it wanted clarifications on some of its points, like Israel's withdrawal, postwar governance and the mandate of a proposed international force to police the enclave.
“The alternative perspective is that Hamas couldn’t care less about further devastation and death in Gaza,” said former Israeli diplomat Alon Pinkas. “For them, giving up the hostages is surrendering the one asset they have. They don’t mind drawing Israel into a complete quagmire, call it Vietnam, south Lebanon or Afghanistan.”
Nimrod Novik, a former senior adviser to Israel's late prime minister Shimon Peres, says he believes Hamas's disarmament “is not impossible”.
Disarming Hamas
To Mr Novik, now a fellow at the New York-based Israel Policy Forum, the issue with Hamas's disarmament might seem semantic to outsiders but it is of great weight for the group. It does not want the plan framed as “disarming Hamas” but rather as the movement “laying down” its arms, he told The National.
“The distinction suggests that it is not imposed by third parties … but rather something Hamas volunteers to do for the betterment of the Palestinian population and in the service of its national interest.”
The pressure has been piling on Hamas since Arab nations gave Mr Trump's plan a cautious welcome, with many of them saying they see it as a road map that could be followed rather than a destination.
For example, Egypt, which together with Turkey and Qatar maintain close links to Hamas, said a great deal of discussion and negotiations are required before Mr Trump's road map can take effect. However, all three agree that Hamas has no place in postwar Gaza.
The group has already signalled its readiness to become a political faction, staying away from governance or reconstruction in postwar Gaza, and for its leaders to leave the enclave and live in exile on condition that they are not assassinated by Israel.
It's all a far cry from the Hamas that on the eve of the Gaza war was a powerful member of an Iranian-backed militant axis that included Lebanon's Hezbollah, Iraqi and Syrian militias and the Houthis in Yemen.
But Hamas's likely demise as an armed resistance group, according to the sources, may not be complete.
French President Emmanuel Macron told Mr Trump last month that Hamas has the same number of fighters it had when the war started. He did not elaborate or say where the information came from, but there have been reports of the group's energetic recruitment during the war.
Infrequent, ineffective
However, available evidence suggests that these figures may be correct on paper only, with many of them inactive or new recruits who are too inexperienced to be thrown into combat.
Hamas fighters continued to attack Israeli troops in Gaza and occasionally unleashed rockets on Israel, but both are infrequent, ineffective in the case of the rockets, and largely symbolic when viewed in the war's wider context.
The sources said small cells of three to four young though active members of Hamas's current fighting force have been quickly forming in Gaza. Many of them are preparing themselves for suicide missions that would not turn the tide of the war but constitute an irritant to Israel's military.
“The ones who are still in the fight are by far the most dangerous Hamas has seen in years,” said another source. “Each cell is electing its own leader and there's barely any contact between the cells.”
The sources, however, point out that Hamas's diminished combat capabilities are compounded by the group's poor communications, a problem that has steadily worsened with Israel killing so many of its leaders over the past two years.
They said the hierarchy of the group's military wing has all but collapsed. It takes days for leaders of the group inside Gaza to reach those living in exile in Qatar or in Turkey.
The group's concern with the safety of its leaders and worry that mobile phones could be tracked by Israel began when Hamas's political leader and chief negotiator, Ismail Haniyeh, was assassinated in Tehran. Last month, the group's leaders in Doha were bombed by Israel. They are believed to have survived the attack, but several of them were wounded.
The sources said none of Hamas's senior operatives in exile or inside Gaza are now carrying mobile phones or any electronic devices, preferring to use handwritten notes delivered by aides situated a safe distance away and using secure phone lines.
Additional reporting by Thomas Helm from Jerusalem
WIDE%20VIEW
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The Written World: How Literature Shaped History
Martin Puchner
Granta
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Key products and UAE prices
iPhone XS
With a 5.8-inch screen, it will be an advance version of the iPhone X. It will be dual sim and comes with better battery life, a faster processor and better camera. A new gold colour will be available.
Price: Dh4,229
iPhone XS Max
It is expected to be a grander version of the iPhone X with a 6.5-inch screen; an inch bigger than the screen of the iPhone 8 Plus.
Price: Dh4,649
iPhone XR
A low-cost version of the iPhone X with a 6.1-inch screen, it is expected to attract mass attention. According to industry experts, it is likely to have aluminium edges instead of stainless steel.
Price: Dh3,179
Apple Watch Series 4
More comprehensive health device with edge-to-edge displays that are more than 30 per cent bigger than displays on current models.
The specs
Engine: 6.2-litre supercharged V8
Power: 712hp at 6,100rpm
Torque: 881Nm at 4,800rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 19.6 l/100km
Price: Dh380,000
On sale: now
Learn more about Qasr Al Hosn
In 2013, The National's History Project went beyond the walls to see what life was like living in Abu Dhabi's fabled fort:
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Director: James Cameron
Starring: Sam Worthington, Sigourney Weaver, Zoe Saldana
Rating: 4.5/5
Farage on Muslim Brotherhood
Nigel Farage told Reform's annual conference that the party will proscribe the Muslim Brotherhood if he becomes Prime Minister.
"We will stop dangerous organisations with links to terrorism operating in our country," he said. "Quite why we've been so gutless about this – both Labour and Conservative – I don't know.
“All across the Middle East, countries have banned and proscribed the Muslim Brotherhood as a dangerous organisation. We will do the very same.”
It is 10 years since a ground-breaking report into the Muslim Brotherhood by Sir John Jenkins.
Among the former diplomat's findings was an assessment that “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” has “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
The prime minister at the time, David Cameron, who commissioned the report, said membership or association with the Muslim Brotherhood was a "possible indicator of extremism" but it would not be banned.
Dhadak 2
Director: Shazia Iqbal
Starring: Siddhant Chaturvedi, Triptii Dimri
Rating: 1/5
The specs: 2018 BMW R nineT Scrambler
Price, base / as tested Dh57,000
Engine 1,170cc air/oil-cooled flat twin four-stroke engine
Transmission Six-speed gearbox
Power 110hp) @ 7,750rpm
Torque 116Nm @ 6,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined 5.3L / 100km
MATCH INFO
Newcastle United 1 (Carroll 82')
Leicester City 2 (Maddison 55', Tielemans 72')
Man of the match James Maddison (Leicester)
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Match info
Uefa Champions League Group H
Manchester United v Young Boys, Tuesday, midnight (UAE)
TV: World Cup Qualifier 2018 matches will be aired on on OSN Sports HD Cricket channel
SPECS
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Our Time Has Come
Alyssa Ayres, Oxford University Press
The Lowdown
Kesari
Rating: 2.5/5 stars
Produced by: Dharma Productions, Azure Entertainment
Directed by: Anubhav Singh
Cast: Akshay Kumar, Parineeti Chopra
The specs: 2018 Renault Koleos
Price, base: From Dh77,900
Engine: 2.5L, in-line four-cylinder
Transmission: Continuously variable transmission
Power: 170hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 233Nm @ 4,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 8.3L / 100km
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
Price, base / as tested: Dh182,178
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Power: 350hp @ 7,400rpm
Torque: 374Nm @ 5,200rpm
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 10.5L / 100km
'Shakuntala Devi'
Starring: Vidya Balan, Sanya Malhotra
Director: Anu Menon
Rating: Three out of five stars
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
More on animal trafficking
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Visit Abu Dhabi culinary team's top Emirati restaurants in Abu Dhabi
Yadoo’s House Restaurant & Cafe
For the karak and Yoodo's house platter with includes eggs, balaleet, khamir and chebab bread.
Golden Dallah
For the cappuccino, luqaimat and aseeda.
Al Mrzab Restaurant
For the shrimp murabian and Kuwaiti options including Kuwaiti machboos with kebab and spicy sauce.
Al Derwaza
For the fish hubul, regag bread, biryani and special seafood soup.
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