Realpolitik prevails as Russia retains uneasy foothold in Syria


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A once-bustling Syrian town that is home to a strategic Russian military airbase is now a pale shadow of its former self, yet at the centre of geopolitics.

In a way, the hollowed-out, mainly Alawite town of Hmeimim has become a symbol of the transitional government’s consolidation of power in parts of Syria once held by deposed president Bashar Al Assad, Russia’s former ally.

Whereas the town’s shops – their signs written in Arabic and Cyrillic, an indication of their past Russian clientele – would once stay open late into the night, they now close by late afternoon.

Russian patrols are no longer permitted to leave the base without prior co-ordination with Syria’s new authorities, and off-duty soldiers no longer walk freely in the town.

Bullet holes and scorch marks are visible on every corner, a reminder of the coastal massacres in March that caused half of the population to flee. Hmeimim’s remaining residents, under the watchful eye of Syrian government patrols and checkpoints, are wary of newcomers.

“It used to be always crowded and full of life,” one of the few remaining shop owners, who declined to give his name out of fear of retribution, told The National.

He said most of the residents left for Russia or Lebanon after the March violence, when a crackdown launched by government forces on a nascent pro-Assad insurgency in the coastal area turned into a spree of sectarian killings.

Those who stayed are now afraid to go out of their homes after dusk, he said, and the town’s economic life, once driven by Russian soldiers, is in tatters. Many inhabitants declined to speak because of the sensitivity of the topic.

The small town is now at the centre of one of the thorniest issues in Syria’s foreign affairs: the continuing presence of the Russian military in the country, which has been thrown into question after the fall of the Assad regime.

Former Syrian president Bashar Al Assad, Russian President Vladimir Putin and then Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu visit the Hmeimim airbase in Latakia province on December 11, 2017. Sputnik via Reuters
Former Syrian president Bashar Al Assad, Russian President Vladimir Putin and then Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu visit the Hmeimim airbase in Latakia province on December 11, 2017. Sputnik via Reuters

Russia still operates three bases in Syria – besides Hmeimim, there is a naval station in Tartus further south and a smaller base in Qamishli in the north-east. Moscow is keen to retain them due to Syria’s strategic location.

Until Mr Al Assad’s fall, Russia viewed Hayat Tahrir Al Sham, the rebel group that led his ousting in December and now anchors Syria's government, as a terrorist group.

Moscow backed Mr Al Assad during the Syrian civil war, launching deadly air strikes on rebel-held areas for nearly a decade.

But since Mr Al Assad’s ousting, both sides have shown pragmatism, engaging in talks that analysts have said are an example of realpolitik. Months of back-channel negotiations led to the unprecedented meeting between Syrian President Ahmad Al Shara and his Russian counterpart and former nemesis, Vladimir Putin, in Moscow this month.

A few days after the fall of the Assad regime, The National was granted rare access to the Hmeimim airbase, and was able to interview HTS and military officials.

Inside the base, a Russian military representative told The National they wanted “friendly relations” with a government that would soon be “legitimate”.

An HTS source said the group wanted to request the extradition of Mr Assad either to Syria or the International Criminal Court. The former president is in exile in Moscow, after reportedly fleeing Syria through Hmeimim.

The claims by the HTS and Russian officials have come to pass.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, meets Syrian President Ahmad Al Shara at the Kremlin on October 15. AP
Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, meets Syrian President Ahmad Al Shara at the Kremlin on October 15. AP

Anna Borshchevskaya, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute, said the negotiations between the former sworn enemies were merely “transactional”.

Russia needs to engage with the new Syrian government if it wants to secure its military foothold in Syria, which it has historically viewed as strategic because of its position at the crossroads of Europe and the Middle East, providing a hub for its operations in Africa. “Russian economic influence in Syria will matter at least as much as its access to military bases,” she added, referring to potential business deals, notably in the energy and phosphate sectors.

The fall of the Assad regime was not the strategic defeat for Russia to the extent that people have portrayed
Anna Borshchevskaya,
senior fellow at the Washington Institute

“The fall of the Assad regime was not the strategic defeat for Russia to the extent that people have portrayed,” she explained.

As delicate negotiations continue, it remains unclear what compromises each side is willing to make to safeguard its interests.

About 10 months after The National’s first visit to Hmeimin, authorities have tightened their control around the Russian airbase, repainted its entrance in the colours of the country's new identity, and adorned it with its new national emblem – a golden eagle. Access for media has also been considerably restricted.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not respond to The National’s request for comment on the continuing talks.

Realpolitik talks

Russia-Syria specialist and author Ruslan Trad said Russia will probably retain its military bases in Syria following the meeting of the presidents on October 15, during which Mr Al Shara said Damascus would respect all previous deals struck with Moscow, without explicitly mentioning the military bases.

Experts said that Damascus hopes that the Russian military presence will help to deter future Israeli strikes, which intensified after the fall of the Assad regime.

Despite Syria's new authorities not having shown hostility, Israel has said it does not trust them because of their hardline Islamist background. It has launched repeated air strikes across Syria, including on the capital, destroyed much of its heavy arsenal, and invaded vast areas in the south.

“This represents a strategic compromise: Syria gains a potential counterweight to Israeli military pressure while Russia preserves its only Mediterranean military foothold and logistical hub for operations in Africa,” Mr Trad said.

Another reported concession from Russia is to help Syria in enforcing the Disengagement Treaty, which created a buffer zone along the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, and the resumption of the 2018 arrangement under the Assad regime, under which Russian forces helped to patrol the border area.

A member of Syria's security forces stands guard outside a former army base near the city of Quneitra, on the edge of the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, on September 21. AFP
A member of Syria's security forces stands guard outside a former army base near the city of Quneitra, on the edge of the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, on September 21. AFP

But Russia's ability to deter Israeli operations is “limited”, Mr Trad said.

“Moscow has historically imposed restrictions on Israeli Air Force movements but has never prevented strikes entirely, using this dynamic as leverage over both parties,” he said.

He added that Mr Al Assad's extradition from Russia was “highly unlikely”.

“Moscow views Assad as a litmus test of its reliability as an ally, abandoning him would signal to other authoritarian partners that Russian protection is conditional and unreliable”.

Aaron Zelin, a fellow at the Washington Institute, said Syria's broad-based approach to foreign affairs could backfire in the long run.

“For now, it makes sense because Syria is in a weakened position,” he told The National.

As Syria opens official talks with Russia, it has also been seeking to rekindle its ties with Moscow’s rivals, including the US and some EU countries.

“At a certain point, you’ve got to have your friends and you’ve got to have your adversaries. Especially now, in a world defined by competition among major powers, or you risk alienating everyone,” Mr Zelin said.

A 'deal with the devil'

For many who suffered Russian bombardment of besieged rebel-held areas during the war, the thought of a national alliance with Russia is difficult to swallow.

“The Russians have killed and destroyed Syria. We would never be in such a disastrous situation if it weren’t for Russia’s intervention,” Nader Debo, 39, from Deraa in southern Syria, told The National. “It's a political mistake from every perspective. Mr Al Shara might lose supporters in regions where Russia’s bombardment was intense.

“It’s also naive. Russia’s presence will never deter Israel from attacking us. It never did under Assad. Russia just wants its economic interests. We don’t need them to extradite Bashar, we will get him ourselves,” he added.

But for others, such as Hasan, not his real name, who, like thousands of other Alawites, took refuge at the Hmeimim base during the March massacres, Russia presents a reassuring counterweight to a government accused of neglecting to protect its minorities.

“Russia has protected us until now, but we still need more guarantees,” said Hasan, a former soldier who surrendered his weapons as part of the reconciliation initiative that followed the fall of the Assad regime.

“We will make a deal with the devil if this means that we can stay safe."

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Vitamin D: Highly relevant in the UAE due to limited sun exposure; supports bone health, immunity and mood.Vitamin B12: Important for nerve health and energy production, especially for vegetarians, vegans and individuals with absorption issues.Iron: Useful only when deficiency or anaemia is confirmed; helps reduce fatigue and support immunity.Omega-3 (EPA/DHA): Supports heart health and reduces inflammation, especially for those who consume little fish.

hall of shame

SUNDERLAND 2002-03

No one has ended a Premier League season quite like Sunderland. They lost each of their final 15 games, taking no points after January. They ended up with 19 in total, sacking managers Peter Reid and Howard Wilkinson and losing 3-1 to Charlton when they scored three own goals in eight minutes.

SUNDERLAND 2005-06

Until Derby came along, Sunderland’s total of 15 points was the Premier League’s record low. They made it until May and their final home game before winning at the Stadium of Light while they lost a joint record 29 of their 38 league games.

HUDDERSFIELD 2018-19

Joined Derby as the only team to be relegated in March. No striker scored until January, while only two players got more assists than goalkeeper Jonas Lossl. The mid-season appointment Jan Siewert was to end his time as Huddersfield manager with a 5.3 per cent win rate.

ASTON VILLA 2015-16

Perhaps the most inexplicably bad season, considering they signed Idrissa Gueye and Adama Traore and still only got 17 points. Villa won their first league game, but none of the next 19. They ended an abominable campaign by taking one point from the last 39 available.

FULHAM 2018-19

Terrible in different ways. Fulham’s total of 26 points is not among the lowest ever but they contrived to get relegated after spending over £100 million (Dh457m) in the transfer market. Much of it went on defenders but they only kept two clean sheets in their first 33 games.

LA LIGA: Sporting Gijon, 13 points in 1997-98.

BUNDESLIGA: Tasmania Berlin, 10 points in 1965-66

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The Emirates Charity Portal

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Al Noor Special Needs Centre

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Emirates Airline Foundation

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Gulf for Good

Gulf for Good raises funds for partner charity projects through challenges, like climbing Kilimanjaro and cycling through Thailand. This year’s projects are in partnership with Street Child Nepal, Larchfield Kids, the Foundation for African Empowerment and SOS Children's Villages. Since 2001, the organisation has raised more than $3.5 million (Dh12.8m) in support of over 50 children’s charities.

Noor Dubai Foundation

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Company profile

Name: Thndr

Started: October 2020

Founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr

Based: Cairo, Egypt

Sector: FinTech

Initial investment: pre-seed of $800,000

Funding stage: series A; $20 million

Investors: Tiger Global, Beco Capital, Prosus Ventures, Y Combinator, Global Ventures, Abdul Latif Jameel, Endure Capital, 4DX Ventures, Plus VC,  Rabacap and MSA Capital

Graduated from the American University of Sharjah

She is the eldest of three brothers and two sisters

Has helped solve 15 cases of electric shocks

Enjoys travelling, reading and horse riding

 

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Dubai Tigers v Al Ain Amblers

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Updated: October 22, 2025, 10:36 AM