Severe storms that swept through the UAE last year unleashed the heaviest rainfall ever recorded in the UAE. But is the amount of rain increasing in the region year on year?
New data has revealed an 18.8 per cent increase in rainfall across the six member countries of the GCC- Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE - between 2000 and 2022. While experts say tracking rain is fraught with difficulty, they add it is important to "err on the side of caution" and prepare for a future with more extreme weather.
The new statistics, released by the GCC Statistical Centre in the Atlas of GCC Statistics for 2024, did not provide total rainfall figures over the 22-year period for individual countries.
The Atlas, now in its ninth edition, collates key region-wide statistics on employment, population, growth and demographics, as well as environmental changes.
“I don't think we can confidently say it is increasing,” Hylke Beck, assistant professor of earth science and engineering at King Abdullah University of Science and Technology in Saudi Arabia, told The National. He pointed out that measuring rainfall is difficult due to various factors including variability in annual rates to regional differences in the GCC.
“There is huge inter-annual variability and rainfall is influenced by a wide range of factors, such as short-term weather variability, longer-term internal climate variability and human climate change. Additionally, the data are inherently uncertain.”
Difficulty in collecting data on rain
Scientists say climate change made last April's UAE's storm more severe, with increasingly extreme and frequent weather events expected in the future. But how much rain is falling is harder to quantify.
Prof Beck said some models did indicate future increases in rain across the Arabian Peninsula, particularly in the south, because a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture and generate rain, but that these are “highly uncertain”.
“Different models provide varying projections, and while the average of these models indicates increases, it may not necessarily reflect reality," Prof Beck explained.
He also pointed to a 2020 study that actually found a decrease in rainfall across Saudi Arabia from 1978 to 2019. The report, Prof Beck added, was based on different sources, which highlights another major problem: the difficulty in obtaining reliable data. Rain gauges only cover one spot and models struggle to simulate rain accurately, with satellites incorrectly detecting precipitation.
“A change of 19 per cent is not that surprising, particularly when analysing such a short 20-year period,” said Prof Beck, regarding the new GCC statistics. “It would be expected as part of normal climate variability.”
Wetter days ahead?
More countries across the arid GCC are deploying cloud-seeding planes to boost rainfall and bolster limited groundwater. But tracking how much rain falls from seeding – firing chemicals clouds to coax out more rain – is arguably just as hard to measure.
Jos Lelieveld, director of the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry and professor at the Cyprus Institute, said that because climate is measured as the average weather over 30 years, a 20-year increase of nearly 20 per cent "could be significant", but is "consistent with climate change projections".
Other studies published over the last few years have also pointed to an increase in wetter days. Scientists at the UAE’s National Centre of Meteorology have discovered that annual precipitation is expected to rise by up to 30 per cent over much of the country during this century.
A separate study published in Nature Scientific Reports last year stated that climate change is causing temperatures in the UAE to increase more during the night than during the day. Increased atmospheric moisture levels are partly responsible for the trend, with the study also highlighting more rain in the future.
Diana Francis, an assistant professor at Khalifa University in Abu Dhabi, and one of the scientists behind this study, told The National that the new statistics from the GCC were “in line with our findings of an increase in rainfall over the subtropics” as a result of increased warming at the equator due to global warming.
The subtropics are zones to the north and south of the tropics. “With global warming, subtropics are projected to receive more rain and become like today’s tropic regions,” she said.
Countries should still prepare
The wild and wet weather that hit western Saudi Arabia on Monday also shows just how suddenly people can be affected. Video footage showed rain drenching pilgrims in Makkah, cars navigating waterlogged roads and flight delays reported at King Abdulaziz International Airport in Jeddah.
If tracking the exact amount of rain remains challenging, what is most important is that countries make their region more resilient against extreme weather events such as torrential downpours by building flood channels and detention basins, and by investing in early warning systems. In the aftermath of Dubai’s floods, authorities announced plans for a Dh30bn rainwater drainage network to guard against flooding and avoid the financial losses that can come in their wake.
This is crucial in light of the GCC's rising population. The Atlas of GCC Statistics also showed the population of the six GCC countries reached 57.6 million in 2023, up from 56.6 million in 2022. The population of Dubai, for example, has swelled to an estimated 3.65 million as of the end of 2023.
Prof Lelieveld said preparing for heavy rains depends on local conditions. "Generally, improved forecasting, early warning and improved drainage systems are called for," he said.
Prof Beck said despite the uncertainty in tracking rainfall, preparation was still crucial. “While there is substantial uncertainty in historical and future precipitation trends, I believe we should err on the side of caution,” he said. “And significantly increase investments in climate resilience measures, especially considering the expected population growth which will put more people at risk.”
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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- Stick at it. Don’t give up after the first day or week. It takes time for children to settle into a new routine.And, finally, don’t feel guilty.
