Concerns are growing in the West that Russia is supplying North Korea with advanced nuclear missile technology that could change the balance of power in Asia, experts have told The National.
With reports that Pyongyang has given Moscow a division of up to 12,000 of its best-trained troops, analysts have disclosed that in return North Korea is receiving technology that will likely “supercharge” its long-running nuclear programme.
There is also the possibility that the technology could, in turn, be passed from North Korea to Iran, where it could lead to a rapid development of a nuclear weapon if Tehran decided on that route following more direct attacks from Israel.
North Korea has already supplied Russia with more than one million artillery rounds, rockets and drones. But it is now broadly accepted the regime has sent thousands of soldiers to Russia who are likely to be active in the Kursk area, where Ukraine holds about 600 square kilometres of territory it took in August.
Nuclear knowledge
There was growing indications that Russia might have given North Korea “nuclear know-how”, said former British army nuclear, chemical and biological warfare specialist Col Hamish de-Bretton-Gordon.
“That nuclear knowledge could be substantial and will destabilise the Far East,” he said. “If North Korea does have a credible nuclear capability, then the balance of power in that part of the world will become unbalanced.”
While Pyongyang had both missiles and nuclear warheads, the challenge was putting the two together into an effective weapon. “The difficulty they will have, as will the Iranians, is that that’s where you need the really clever learning that Russia will have.”
Military analyst Tim Ripley agreed that the Russian knowledge will prevent North Korea “wasting time going down dead-ends” with the ability to manufacture advanced nuclear weapons “in a year rather than three years” by rapidly integrating warheads on to long-range rockets.
“The Russians can tell them that ‘We tried that, it didn't work, but we tried this and it did work’, so they can cruise through and avoid wasting time and money,” he added.
Robert Peters, a nuclear deterrence research fellow at the US Heritage Foundation think tank, said that there was now “potential for Russia to supercharge North Korea’s nuclear and missile programme” as the closer ties would include “technical assistance”.
“A more modern North Korea would almost certainly be emboldened and far more aggressive,” he wrote, adding that the US, South Korea and Japan had to present a united front so that they were not “coerced by a confident, nuclear-armed North Korea”.
A more confident North Korea would also “make mischief for the United States and its allies in the Indo Pacific” which could also form part of its agreement with Moscow, said Brigadier Ben Barry of the IISS think tank.
Korean ‘cannon fodder’
The North Korea deployment suggests that Russia is running short of troops having suffered more than 600,000 casualties since it invaded Ukraine in early 2022, according to Nato estimates.
It also implies that Russian President Vladimir Putin is fearful of ordering a mass mobilisation that would involve the children of many of Moscow and St Petersburg’s middle classes who have largely been able to avoid the frontline.
Col de Bretton-Gordon said that the move demonstrated Russians were “really getting short of manpower” and that “Putin is running out of conscripts, and he really doesn't want to go to families of the elite” for more.
He added that there was also a suggestion from intelligence sources that some North Korean soldiers were keen to surrender to Ukraine rather than die in a foreign land.
Mr Ripley said that the Asian troops would simply be used as “cannon fodder” to plug the gaps in a war in which Russia is losing an estimated 1,200 dead and wounded a day.
Having not been to war since the Korean conflict that ended in stalemate in 1953, it is also unclear on the quality of the new troops, although they are likely to be better trained than raw recruits Russia has been feeding into the meat-grinder of Ukraine’s frontline.
There is also a possibility that the US or UK might allow Ukraine to use its long range precision strike weapons, such as the Storm Shadow cruise missile, to hit targets inside Russia as a result of the North Korea escalation.
The US, however, has given no indication that it will approve Ukraine's deep strike request.
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
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