US officials are preparing for a meeting aimed at formulating a new nuclear deal with Iran, but those involved in structuring the previous agreement say the situation is fundamentally different from the first time talks took place.
In 2018, during his first term in office, President Donald Trump withdrew the US from a deal struck by former president Barack Obama's administration and world powers, which put limits on Iran's nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief. But shortly after returning to the White House this year, Mr Trump announced he had reached out to Iranian leadership about a new deal.
Richard Nephew, a senior research scholar at Columbia University who was involved in negotiating the original nuclear deal, said the odds of an agreement are “much lower” this time around.
“I was the only member of the team who was convinced that we were going to get a deal – basically the entire time, I never went below 50 per cent,” Mr Nephew told The National, explaining that the previous negotiations had the benefit of starting with a clean slate. “We didn't have years of bad blood having built up, but we do now, and particularly with this president, and in particular with an Iranian system that didn't fully believe that we would commit to a deal in the first place.”
Mr Trump has had a contentious relationship with Iran. After pulling out of the original deal, he instituted a “maximum pressure” sanctions campaign against Tehran, which he reinstituted soon after taking office.
He also ordered the killing of Qassem Suleimani, commander of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Quds Force, in Baghdad in 2020. And even after announcing his desire for a new nuclear deal, he has engaged in incendiary rhetoric against Tehran, including saying “there will be bombing” and that it will be a “very bad day for Iran” if talks do not ultimately result in an agreement.
This mistrust is only one of several obstacles facing the teams heading into the talks in Oman.
Gary Samore, the director of the Crown Centre for Middle East Studies at Brandeis University and a member of the team involved in forming the framework of the original deal, said that Mr Obama built up an international coalition – known as the P5+1 that also included China, France, Russia, the UK and Germany – to engage with Iran. Mr Trump, however, has alienated many allies since coming back to power.
“Trump is feuding with the Europeans. He wants to improve ties with Russia, but a ceasefire in Ukraine is elusive. We're entering into a big trade war with China – so the big powers are not lined up to co-operate on Iran,” Mr Samore told The National. “And I think that gives Iran a little bit more latitude, or makes them feel like they're less isolated internationally.”
Russia and China were previously “genuine partners” with the US in wanting to secure a deal, but that's no longer the case, according to Robert Einhorn, who was assistant secretary for nonproliferation in the Clinton administration and special adviser to the Secretary of State for nonproliferation and arms control in the Obama administration, and participated in the talks that led to the original agreement.
“Today is a fundamentally different situation. You have China and Russia having reached a strategic partnership with Iran – neither one of them will do anything to pressure Iran to accept the kind of deal that the US wants,” Mr Einhorn, currently a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, told The National.
In addition, there are concerns of mutual intransigence over the future of Iran's nuclear ambitions. The Trump administration has indicated it wants Iran to completely dismantle its programme, while Tehran, which has always insisted that the programme is for peaceful purposes, has rejected that. The previous deal allowed for some enrichment of uranium but with strict limits, to avoid the possibility of Iran possessing enough materials to build a nuclear weapon.
While Iran's nuclear programme has greatly expanded since the previous deal imploded, Tehran may feel more pressure to make a deal with the US, with its economy in tatters and its regional influence on the wane. Mr Samore pointed out that the Iranians also likely view Mr Trump's threat of use of force as more credible than under Mr Obama or his successor Joe Biden.
But for those involved in the formulation of the original agreement, the fear is that if the US does not have a strong team in place, the talks will come to nothing in the end, no matter how much both sides want a deal.
“Of course, there are still nuclear experts and sanctions experts in the US government,” Mr Samore said “But there has been a loss of talent … Biden brought in people that were outside the JCPOA, so I think there's talent there, but so far, I haven't seen any indication that [Middle East envoy Steve] Witkoff has put a team together, and I don't even know who would lead the US negotiations.”
Mr Nephew added that the recent drive by the Trump administration to cut down on government waste by carrying out mass firings of federal employees, some of whom could have contributed knowledge and experience to the negotiations.
“There's still civil servants and experts to the system who could contribute, sure there are,” he said. “But then, you know, it's not clear to me that they're using those people … So my own sense is that they don't really have the team capable to do a similar kind of deal as we got.”
Mr Einhorn also noted a general lack of cohesion in the Trump administration with regard to Iran. Despite the fact that Mr Trump has suggested there could be a military response if talks fail, Mr Einhorn believes the administration is motivated to hammer out a deal.
“I think the most important voice, of course, will be the President's voice and he seems inclined to give diplomacy a real chance,” he said.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The%20specs
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The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
GOLF’S RAHMBO
- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
- Three wins in past 10 starts
- 45 pro starts worldwide: 5 wins, 17 top 5s
- Ranked 551th in world on debut, now No 4 (was No 2 earlier this year)
- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)
RESULTS
1.45pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,200m
Winner: Lady Parma, Richard Mullen (jockey), Satish Seemar (trainer).
2.15pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,200m
Winner: Tabernas, Connor Beasley, Ahmed bin Harmash.
2.45pm: Handicap Dh95,000 1,200m
Winner: Night Castle, Connor Beasley, Satish Seemar.
3.15pm: Handicap Dh120,000 1,400m
Winner: Mystique Moon, Sam Hitchcott, Doug Watson.
3.45pm: Handicap Dh80,000 1,400m
Winner: Mutawakked, Szczepan Mazur, Musabah Al Muhairi.
4.15pm: Handicap Dh90,000 1,800m
Winner: Tafaakhor, Sandro Paiva, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
4.45pm: Handicap Dh80,000 1,950m
Winner: Cranesbill, Fabrice Veron, Erwan Charpy.
Afcon 2019
SEMI-FINALS
Senegal v Tunisia, 8pm
Algeria v Nigeria, 11pm
Matches are live on BeIN Sports
MATCH INFO
Manchester City 3
Danilo (16'), Bernardo Silva (34'), Fernandinho (72')
Brighton & Hove Albion 1
Ulloa (20')
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
WITHIN%20SAND
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Moe%20Alatawi%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%20Ra%E2%80%99ed%20Alshammari%2C%20Adwa%20Fahd%2C%20Muhand%20Alsaleh%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The President's Cake
Director: Hasan Hadi
Starring: Baneen Ahmad Nayyef, Waheed Thabet Khreibat, Sajad Mohamad Qasem
Rating: 4/5
Paatal Lok season two
Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy
Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong
Rating: 4.5/5
What are the influencer academy modules?
- Mastery of audio-visual content creation.
- Cinematography, shots and movement.
- All aspects of post-production.
- Emerging technologies and VFX with AI and CGI.
- Understanding of marketing objectives and audience engagement.
- Tourism industry knowledge.
- Professional ethics.
Match info
Liverpool 3
Hoedt (10' og), Matip (21'), Salah (45 3')
Southampton 0
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
Desert Warrior
Starring: Anthony Mackie, Aiysha Hart, Ben Kingsley
Director: Rupert Wyatt
Rating: 3/5
MATCH INFO
Chelsea 3 (Abraham 11', 17', 74')
Luton Town 1 (Clark 30')
Man of the match Abraham (Chelsea)
The Little Things
Directed by: John Lee Hancock
Starring: Denzel Washington, Rami Malek, Jared Leto
Four stars
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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UAE
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Canada
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Hydrogen: Market potential
Hydrogen has an estimated $11 trillion market potential, according to Bank of America Securities and is expected to generate $2.5tn in direct revenues and $11tn of indirect infrastructure by 2050 as its production increases six-fold.
"We believe we are reaching the point of harnessing the element that comprises 90 per cent of the universe, effectively and economically,” the bank said in a recent report.
Falling costs of renewable energy and electrolysers used in green hydrogen production is one of the main catalysts for the increasingly bullish sentiment over the element.
The cost of electrolysers used in green hydrogen production has halved over the last five years and will fall to 60 to 90 per cent by the end of the decade, acceding to Haim Israel, equity strategist at Merrill Lynch. A global focus on decarbonisation and sustainability is also a big driver in its development.
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
PREMIER LEAGUE FIXTURES
All kick-off times UAE ( 4 GMT)
Saturday
Liverpool v Manchester United - 3.30pm
Burnley v West Ham United - 6pm
Crystal Palace v Chelsea - 6pm
Manchester City v Stoke City - 6pm
Swansea City v Huddersfield Town - 6pm
Tottenham Hotspur v Bournemouth - 6pm
Watford v Arsenal - 8.30pm
Sunday
Brighton and Hove Albion v Everton - 4.30pm
Southampton v Newcastle United - 7pm
Monday
Leicester City v West Bromwich Albion - 11pm
Revival
Eminem
Interscope
T20 SQUADS
Australia: Aaron Finch (c), Mitchell Marsh, Alex Carey, Ashton Agar, Nathan Coulter-Nile, Chris Lynn, Nathan Lyon, Glenn Maxwell, Ben McDermott, D’Arcy Short, Billy Stanlake, Mitchell Starc, Andrew Tye, Adam Zampa.
Pakistan: Sarfraz Ahmed (c), Fakhar Zaman, Mohammad Hafeez, Sahibzada Farhan, Babar Azam, Shoaib Malik, Asif Ali, Hussain Talat, Shadab Khan, Shaheen Shah Afridi, Usman Khan Shinwari, Hassan Ali, Imad Wasim, Waqas Maqsood, Faheem Ashraf.
The Bio
Ram Buxani earned a salary of 125 rupees per month in 1959
Indian currency was then legal tender in the Trucial States.
He received the wages plus food, accommodation, a haircut and cinema ticket twice a month and actuals for shaving and laundry expenses
Buxani followed in his father’s footsteps when he applied for a job overseas
His father Jivat Ram worked in general merchandize store in Gibraltar and the Canary Islands in the early 1930s
Buxani grew the UAE business over several sectors from retail to financial services but is attached to the original textile business
He talks in detail about natural fibres, the texture of cloth, mirrorwork and embroidery
Buxani lives by a simple philosophy – do good to all
THE DETAILS
Kaala
Dir: Pa. Ranjith
Starring: Rajinikanth, Huma Qureshi, Easwari Rao, Nana Patekar
Rating: 1.5/5
Sri Lanka-India Test series schedule
- 1st Test India won by 304 runs at Galle
- 2nd Test India won by innings and 53 runs at Colombo
- 3rd Test August 12-16 at Pallekele
The specs
Engine: 1.4-litre 4-cylinder turbo
Power: 180hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 250Nm at 3,00rpm
Transmission: 5-speed sequential auto
Price: From Dh139,995
On sale: now
How much do leading UAE’s UK curriculum schools charge for Year 6?
- Nord Anglia International School (Dubai) – Dh85,032
- Kings School Al Barsha (Dubai) – Dh71,905
- Brighton College Abu Dhabi - Dh68,560
- Jumeirah English Speaking School (Dubai) – Dh59,728
- Gems Wellington International School – Dubai Branch – Dh58,488
- The British School Al Khubairat (Abu Dhabi) - Dh54,170
- Dubai English Speaking School – Dh51,269
*Annual tuition fees covering the 2024/2025 academic year
DUBAI%20BLING%3A%20EPISODE%201
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How to watch Ireland v Pakistan in UAE
When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11
What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time.
TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.
SPECS
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
THE BIO
Favourite book: ‘Purpose Driven Life’ by Rick Warren
Favourite travel destination: Switzerland
Hobbies: Travelling and following motivational speeches and speakers
Favourite place in UAE: Dubai Museum
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
UAE%20set%20for%20Scotland%20series
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Who was Alfred Nobel?
The Nobel Prize was created by wealthy Swedish chemist and entrepreneur Alfred Nobel.
- In his will he dictated that the bulk of his estate should be used to fund "prizes to those who, during the preceding year, have conferred the greatest benefit to humankind".
- Nobel is best known as the inventor of dynamite, but also wrote poetry and drama and could speak Russian, French, English and German by the age of 17. The five original prize categories reflect the interests closest to his heart.
- Nobel died in 1896 but it took until 1901, following a legal battle over his will, before the first prizes were awarded.
Learn more about Qasr Al Hosn
In 2013, The National's History Project went beyond the walls to see what life was like living in Abu Dhabi's fabled fort:
Fireball
Moscow claimed it hit the largest military fuel storage facility in Ukraine, triggering a huge fireball at the site.
A plume of black smoke rose from a fuel storage facility in the village of Kalynivka outside Kyiv on Friday after Russia said it had destroyed the military site with Kalibr cruise missiles.
"On the evening of March 24, Kalibr high-precision sea-based cruise missiles attacked a fuel base in the village of Kalynivka near Kyiv," the Russian defence ministry said in a statement.
Ukraine confirmed the strike, saying the village some 40 kilometres south-west of Kyiv was targeted.
Trump v Khan
2016: Feud begins after Khan criticised Trump’s proposed Muslim travel ban to US
2017: Trump criticises Khan’s ‘no reason to be alarmed’ response to London Bridge terror attacks
2019: Trump calls Khan a “stone cold loser” before first state visit
2019: Trump tweets about “Khan’s Londonistan”, calling him “a national disgrace”
2022: Khan’s office attributes rise in Islamophobic abuse against the major to hostility stoked during Trump’s presidency
July 2025 During a golfing trip to Scotland, Trump calls Khan “a nasty person”
Sept 2025 Trump blames Khan for London’s “stabbings and the dirt and the filth”.
Dec 2025 Trump suggests migrants got Khan elected, calls him a “horrible, vicious, disgusting mayor”
Starring: Jamie Foxx, Angela Bassett, Tina Fey
Directed by: Pete Doctor
Rating: 4 stars
Skoda Superb Specs
Engine: 2-litre TSI petrol
Power: 190hp
Torque: 320Nm
Price: From Dh147,000
Available: Now
'Unrivaled: Why America Will Remain the World’s Sole Superpower'
Michael Beckley, Cornell Press
Quick pearls of wisdom
Focus on gratitude: And do so deeply, he says. “Think of one to three things a day that you’re grateful for. It needs to be specific, too, don’t just say ‘air.’ Really think about it. If you’re grateful for, say, what your parents have done for you, that will motivate you to do more for the world.”
Know how to fight: Shetty married his wife, Radhi, three years ago (he met her in a meditation class before he went off and became a monk). He says they’ve had to learn to respect each other’s “fighting styles” – he’s a talk it-out-immediately person, while she needs space to think. “When you’re having an argument, remember, it’s not you against each other. It’s both of you against the problem. When you win, they lose. If you’re on a team you have to win together.”
