Trump returns to a changed Gulf: How the region has evolved since 2017


Vanessa Ghanem
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Live updates: Follow the latest on Trump's Gulf trip

When US President Donald Trump visited the Gulf in 2017, he was welcomed with swords, spectacle and strategic assurances. Back then, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar were key pillars of a region deeply tied to Washington’s security umbrella.

Now, as Mr Trump prepares to make the first official foreign trip of his second term, he returns to a transformed peninsula – one that has become more self-assured and strategically diversified.

Observers say he will find a Gulf that has shifted economically and diplomatically since his 2017 visit. While the US remains a primary defence partner, it is no longer the sole power shaping the region. Beijing, Brussels, New Delhi and Moscow are now part of a multipolar matrix that Gulf capitals navigate with increasing confidence.

Mr Trump’s visit to Riyadh, Doha and Abu Dhabi comes at a moment when these countries are projecting influence well beyond their borders. From brokering ceasefires, mediating one crisis after another and hosting global investment forums, Gulf states have emerged as active players and architects of a new regional order. They have matured geopolitically, becoming multi-aligned power centres with global ambitions.

“The Gulf has now more options in terms of strategic partners, investment partners and commercial and trade partners,” said Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, an Emirati non-resident senior fellow at Harvard University.

Yet, while economic ties to China and the East have grown, analysts argue that the US remains the Gulf’s principal military and security guarantor.

“Find me another security partner that has dozens of thousands of troops and powerful assets in the region and that can surge at a moment’s notice to deal with any emerging military contingency and crisis,” Bilal Saab, senior managing director of Trends US and a former Pentagon official in the first Trump administration, told The National. “I’m not convinced there’s another security partner like the US.”

Last week, the State Department approved a possible foreign military sale to Saudi Arabia of AIM-120C-8 advanced medium range air-to-air missiles and related support for $3.5 billion, the Pentagon said in a statement. This came after Reuters reported the US was poised to offer Saudi Arabia an arms package worth well over $100 billion during Mr Trump's visit to the kingdom.

Major investment agreements are also expected to headline the President’s agenda. Mr Trump said Saudi Arabia had agreed to invest “$1 trillion in our economy", though Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has only confirmed a pledge of $600 billion. Some say Riyadh may struggle to deliver on such a pledge, given the dip in oil prices.

Brent crude prices dropped to under $60 per barrel this week, well below the $100 price Saudi Arabia needs to balance its budget.

Qatar and the UAE are also touting ambitious investment plans of their own. The UAE has announced a 10-year, $1.4 trillion investment framework targeting US-based infrastructure, including artificial intelligence, semiconductors, manufacturing and natural gas.

Saudi Arabia

In 2017, Prince Mohammed was a newly ascendant force, consolidating power at home and capturing headlines abroad with sweeping reform plans and controversial moves. Today, the Crown Prince is a more seasoned leader.

Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman with US President Donald Trump at the G20 leaders summit in Osaka, in 2019. Reuters
Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman with US President Donald Trump at the G20 leaders summit in Osaka, in 2019. Reuters

Riyadh has positioned itself as a diplomatic hub, mediating in conflicts and leading a pragmatic realignment in the Middle East. The Saudi capital is now the place to be for leaders, chief executives and other players.

The kingdom this year hosted separate US talks with Ukraine and Russia. The Riyadh meeting in February was the first high-level, in-person encounter between Russia and the US since the Ukraine war began.

One priority on Mr Trump’s agenda, according to sources, is to push for Saudi Arabia to join the Abraham Accords. But Riyadh continues to maintain that establishing ties with Israel is contingent on a Palestinian state being established. Saudi officials have emphasised that, without a clear and irreversible path to Palestinian statehood, establishing ties with Israel is “off the table”. That stance suggests that Mr Trump may face greater resistance than he did in his first term.

Still, it remains possible, said Mr Saab. “But it will require addressing the Israeli people and convincing them that the path forward for their country and its security is without this far-right government," he added.

Many observers, though, say that the American President will press ahead with regional initiatives, with or without Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

UAE

The UAE has parlayed its early embrace of globalisation into a commanding role on the world stage. In 2017, it was already punching above its weight. In 2025, it is a regional heavyweight.

From hosting the Cop28 climate change summit to leading AI innovation and attracting capital from Asia, Africa and the West, the Emirates has become a critical node in the global economy. Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth funds are steering billions into climate tech and semiconductors, while Dubai remains a magnet for billionaires, digital nomads and hedge funds.

Geopolitically, the UAE has taken a hedging approach, maintaining robust ties with the US while deepening relations with China, Russia and India. It also agreed with the EU to launch free trade talks and has been mediating prisoner exchanges between Russia and Ukraine.

“Gulf states feel comfortable sitting next to America for the time being and for the foreseeable future,” said Dr Abdulla, adding that the UAE and its neighbours are simultaneously looking East. “Asia is the continent of the future," he noted.

“The UAE and other Gulf nations have recognised the importance of Asia … they are becoming more aware of their Asian affinity and identity than they were eight years ago."

Saudi Arabia and the UAE are incrementally buying more military equipment from non-US suppliers, said Hasan Alhasan, senior fellow for Middle East policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.

"This includes Turkish and Chinese UAVs, South Korean surface-to-air missiles, and, in the UAE's case, Chinese L-15 trainer jets and Russia's point defence system Pantsir," he added. "Nevertheless, the Arab Gulf states remain western-oriented on major air domain purchases, preferring US and European systems."

Qatar

Doha has become a mediator for some of the world’s thorniest conflicts. Qatar has hosted negotiations involving Hamas, the Taliban, and US and EU officials, positioning itself as a unique diplomatic conduit. Its ties to Islamist groups, once viewed as liabilities, are now tools of engagement. During the ongoing Gaza war, Qatar has played a central role in brokering ceasefire proposals and humanitarian corridors.

Its foreign policy clout is backed by a strong economic foundation, including partnerships with European energy companies and long-term LNG deals with Asian buyers. Qatar has managed to retain close ties with Washington while expanding its diplomatic reach.

For Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the US remains a key ally, but not the only one. This time, Mr Trump is visiting a geopolitical crossroads with its own agenda.

"The Arab Gulf states cannot afford to choose between the US, their main and preferred security partner, China, their top trading partner, and Russia, their partner in managing Opec+," said Mr Alhasan. "They are actively positioning themselves as a place for doing business with everyone even as the global economy bifurcates between the US and China."

A Gulf-US summit is expected to take place in Riyadh next week during Mr Trump's trip. Saudi Arabia's King Salman has invited leaders of the GCC to attend the meeting, per sources.

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Remaining Fixtures

Wednesday: West Indies v Scotland
Thursday: UAE v Zimbabwe
Friday: Afghanistan v Ireland
Sunday: Final

Infiniti QX80 specs

Engine: twin-turbocharged 3.5-liter V6

Power: 450hp

Torque: 700Nm

Price: From Dh450,000, Autograph model from Dh510,000

Available: Now

AUSTRALIA SQUAD v SOUTH AFRICA

Aaron Finch (capt), Shaun Marsh, Travis Head, Chris Lynn, Glenn Maxwell, D'Arcy Short, Marcus Stoinis, Alex Carey, Ashton Agar, Mitchell Starc, Josh Hazlewood, Pat Cummins, Nathan Coulter-Nile, Adam Zampa

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Our family matters legal consultant

Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais

Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.

BULKWHIZ PROFILE

Date started: February 2017

Founders: Amira Rashad (CEO), Yusuf Saber (CTO), Mahmoud Sayedahmed (adviser), Reda Bouraoui (adviser)

Based: Dubai, UAE

Sector: E-commerce 

Size: 50 employees

Funding: approximately $6m

Investors: Beco Capital, Enabling Future and Wain in the UAE; China's MSA Capital; 500 Startups; Faith Capital and Savour Ventures in Kuwait

Who has lived at The Bishops Avenue?
  • George Sainsbury of the supermarket dynasty, sugar magnate William Park Lyle and actress Dame Gracie Fields were residents in the 1930s when the street was only known as ‘Millionaires’ Row’.
  • Then came the international super rich, including the last king of Greece, Constantine II, the Sultan of Brunei and Indian steel magnate Lakshmi Mittal who was at one point ranked the third richest person in the world.
  • Turkish tycoon Halis Torprak sold his mansion for £50m in 2008 after spending just two days there. The House of Saud sold 10 properties on the road in 2013 for almost £80m.
  • Other residents have included Iraqi businessman Nemir Kirdar, singer Ariana Grande, holiday camp impresario Sir Billy Butlin, businessman Asil Nadir, Paul McCartney’s former wife Heather Mills. 
Hunting park to luxury living
  • Land was originally the Bishop of London's hunting park, hence the name
  • The road was laid out in the mid 19th Century, meandering through woodland and farmland
  • Its earliest houses at the turn of the 20th Century were substantial detached properties with extensive grounds

 

Company%20Profile
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Results

5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 2,200m; Winner: Gurm, Antonio Fresu (jockey), Eric Lemartinel (trainer)

5.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Al Nafece, Al Muatasm Al Balushi, Mohammed Ramadan

6pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 1,200m; Winner: Ashton Tourettes, Adrie de Vries, Ibrahim Aseel

6.30pm: Arabian Triple Crown – Group 3 (PA) Dh300,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: Ottoman, Adrie de Vries, Abdallah Al Hammadi

7pm: Liwa Oasis – Group 2 (PA) 300,000 (T) 1,400m; Winner: Hakeemat Muscat, Szczepan Mazur, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami

7.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Ganbaru, Antonio Fresu, Musabah Al Muhairi

THE BIO

Bio Box

Role Model: Sheikh Zayed, God bless his soul

Favorite book: Zayed Biography of the leader

Favorite quote: To be or not to be, that is the question, from William Shakespeare's Hamlet

Favorite food: seafood

Favorite place to travel: Lebanon

Favorite movie: Braveheart

Conflict, drought, famine

Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.

Band Aid

Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.

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The specs

Engine: Direct injection 4-cylinder 1.4-litre
Power: 150hp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: From Dh139,000
On sale: Now

Where to donate in the UAE

The Emirates Charity Portal

You can donate to several registered charities through a “donation catalogue”. The use of the donation is quite specific, such as buying a fan for a poor family in Niger for Dh130.

The General Authority of Islamic Affairs & Endowments

The site has an e-donation service accepting debit card, credit card or e-Dirham, an electronic payment tool developed by the Ministry of Finance and First Abu Dhabi Bank.

Al Noor Special Needs Centre

You can donate online or order Smiles n’ Stuff products handcrafted by Al Noor students. The centre publishes a wish list of extras needed, starting at Dh500.

Beit Al Khair Society

Beit Al Khair Society has the motto “From – and to – the UAE,” with donations going towards the neediest in the country. Its website has a list of physical donation sites, but people can also contribute money by SMS, bank transfer and through the hotline 800-22554.

Dar Al Ber Society

Dar Al Ber Society, which has charity projects in 39 countries, accept cash payments, money transfers or SMS donations. Its donation hotline is 800-79.

Dubai Cares

Dubai Cares provides several options for individuals and companies to donate, including online, through banks, at retail outlets, via phone and by purchasing Dubai Cares branded merchandise. It is currently running a campaign called Bookings 2030, which allows people to help change the future of six underprivileged children and young people.

Emirates Airline Foundation

Those who travel on Emirates have undoubtedly seen the little donation envelopes in the seat pockets. But the foundation also accepts donations online and in the form of Skywards Miles. Donated miles are used to sponsor travel for doctors, surgeons, engineers and other professionals volunteering on humanitarian missions around the world.

Emirates Red Crescent

On the Emirates Red Crescent website you can choose between 35 different purposes for your donation, such as providing food for fasters, supporting debtors and contributing to a refugee women fund. It also has a list of bank accounts for each donation type.

Gulf for Good

Gulf for Good raises funds for partner charity projects through challenges, like climbing Kilimanjaro and cycling through Thailand. This year’s projects are in partnership with Street Child Nepal, Larchfield Kids, the Foundation for African Empowerment and SOS Children's Villages. Since 2001, the organisation has raised more than $3.5 million (Dh12.8m) in support of over 50 children’s charities.

Noor Dubai Foundation

Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum launched the Noor Dubai Foundation a decade ago with the aim of eliminating all forms of preventable blindness globally. You can donate Dh50 to support mobile eye camps by texting the word “Noor” to 4565 (Etisalat) or 4849 (du).

Tips to keep your car cool
  • Place a sun reflector in your windshield when not driving
  • Park in shaded or covered areas
  • Add tint to windows
  • Wrap your car to change the exterior colour
  • Pick light interiors - choose colours such as beige and cream for seats and dashboard furniture
  • Avoid leather interiors as these absorb more heat
Cultural fiesta

What: The Al Burda Festival
When: November 14 (from 10am)
Where: Warehouse421,  Abu Dhabi
The Al Burda Festival is a celebration of Islamic art and culture, featuring talks, performances and exhibitions. Organised by the Ministry of Culture and Knowledge Development, this one-day event opens with a session on the future of Islamic art. With this in mind, it is followed by a number of workshops and “masterclass” sessions in everything from calligraphy and typography to geometry and the origins of Islamic design. There will also be discussions on subjects including ‘Who is the Audience for Islamic Art?’ and ‘New Markets for Islamic Design.’ A live performance from Kuwaiti guitarist Yousif Yaseen should be one of the highlights of the day. 

Sanchez's club career

2005-2006: Cobreloa

2006-2011 Udinese

2006-2007 Colo-Colo (on loan)

2007-2008 River Plate (on loan)

2011-2014 Barcelona

2014–Present Arsenal

The specs: 2018 Nissan Patrol Nismo

Price: base / as tested: Dh382,000

Engine: 5.6-litre V8

Gearbox: Seven-speed automatic

Power: 428hp @ 5,800rpm

Torque: 560Nm @ 3,600rpm

Fuel economy, combined: 12.7L / 100km

Who's who in Yemen conflict

Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government

Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council

Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south

Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory

Is it worth it? We put cheesecake frap to the test.

The verdict from the nutritionists is damning. But does a cheesecake frappuccino taste good enough to merit the indulgence?

My advice is to only go there if you have unusually sweet tooth. I like my puddings, but this was a bit much even for me. The first hit is a winner, but it's downhill, slowly, from there. Each sip is a little less satisfying than the last, and maybe it was just all that sugar, but it isn't long before the rush is replaced by a creeping remorse. And half of the thing is still left.

The caramel version is far superior to the blueberry, too. If someone put a full caramel cheesecake through a liquidiser and scooped out the contents, it would probably taste something like this. Blueberry, on the other hand, has more of an artificial taste. It's like someone has tried to invent this drink in a lab, and while early results were promising, they're still in the testing phase. It isn't terrible, but something isn't quite right either.

So if you want an experience, go for a small, and opt for the caramel. But if you want a cheesecake, it's probably more satisfying, and not quite as unhealthy, to just order the real thing.

 

 

The President's Cake

Director: Hasan Hadi

Starring: Baneen Ahmad Nayyef, Waheed Thabet Khreibat, Sajad Mohamad Qasem 

Rating: 4/5

Updated: May 12, 2025, 6:24 AM