Could the Doha strike change the direction of US-Gulf relations?

Israel's attack on Hamas officials in Qatar has upended assumptions about the US-Gulf relationship and has probably left regional partners feeling “expendable”, former diplomats and analysts say.

Tuesday's strike in Doha killed six people, including a Qatari security official. It is the second time in about three months that Qatar has been attacked amid the spillover from the Gaza war.

Israeli media reported that the US had approved the attack. The White House denied the claim, saying Washington was informed right before the attack and that US President Donald Trump was “very unhappy” about the strike.

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Gulf states are dealing with several challenges, said Douglas Silliman, former ambassador to Kuwait and Iraq and head of the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. “Qatar is a particularly complicated case because they have received attacks by both Iran and now Israel,” Mr Silliman told The National.

With the US approving or allowing one ally to attack another, questions have been raised over how this might affect the future of US-Gulf relations.

“The fact that a GCC [Gulf Co-operation Council] state has been attacked in this way has upended a lot of assumptions as to what was potentially on or off limits,” Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, a fellow for the Middle East at the Baker Institute at Rice University, said.

“Given that these [are] red lines which have been crossed, it's very difficult to sort of uncross them, to go back to what was there before.”

Brian Katulis, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, said the strike would probably continue a subtle, years-long shift towards diversifying security partnerships. Mr Katulis emphasised that the US remained the partner of choice for Gulf counties but said “a lot of big tectonic plates are shifting”.

“If you're putting 'America first', it means that even some of your closest friends and partners can be expendable,” he told The National, referring to the Trump administration's emphasis on American interests in foreign policy.

Mr Katulis added Mr Trump has shown that he “doesn't truly care” what Arab partners think, with this best exemplified in the issue of Palestine and the Gaza war. This, coupled with the Doha strike and Gulf leaders observing the issues the US is having domestically, might motivate GCC nations to “do certain things together that they weren't motivated to do before”.

Speaking to Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim after the attack, Mr Trump said “such a thing will not happen again”.

During his trip to the Gulf in May – his first official visit since his return to the Oval Office – Mr Trump announced trillions of dollars in deals with companies and government bodies.

Mr Katulis put it a bit more bluntly: “He's not interested that much in trade, because if he was interested in trade, he wouldn't be flinging tariffs on these countries who are close partners.”

He pointed to the billions of dollars in deals made with Qatar during Mr Trump's visit to the Gulf, and how the US President received a luxury jet from Doha.

“And what did they get in return? They get bombed by two of their neighbours: Iran in June and Israel in September,” he said. “That's a pretty raw deal.”

While the US-Gulf security relationship might have been challenged, it has not changed, said Neil Quilliam, associate fellow with the Middle East and North Africa programme at the Chatham House think tank in the UK.

“Its modalities remain intact. However, Gulf confidence in the value of US security pledges has dropped to an all-time low given the proclivities of the US President,” Mr Quilliam told The National. “Trump is no longer beholden to the norms and practices that shape partnerships, and that means irrespective of security guarantees, all Gulf Arab states are vulnerable to Israeli strikes.”

Abdulaziz Sager, founder and chairman of the Gulf Research Centre, sees that a candid dialogue between Washington and the Gulf states is needed. "The aim should be to update the security framework so that it addresses both sides’ evolving interests. Without such a dialogue, the current relationship will continue to generate doubts and limit the ability of Gulf states to feel secure in the face of regional threats," he added.

Mr Sager said that the security relationship between the US and Gulf states is deeply rooted and cannot be easily replaced. "No other global power, whether China, Russia or Europe, is willing or able to assume comparable security commitments in the Gulf."

Gulf response

Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman has described Israel’s strike as “state terrorism” and “100 per cent treacherous”.

“Qatar reserves the right to respond to this blatant attack,” he said. A legal team has been formed to handle the Gulf country's response, he added. But despite the attack, he said Qatar’s efforts to mediate an end to the Gaza war would continue.

Intra-Gulf dynamics have changed substantially since 2017. An attack on Qatar now is seen as a threat to all Gulf states, heightening anxieties about the region's overall security.

"The security of the Arab Gulf states is indivisible,” Dr Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to UAE President Sheikh Mohamed, wrote on X.

Mr Quilliam said Gulf states are likely to mobilise the Gulf Co-operation Council, Arab League and Organisation of Islamic Co-operation to issue strong statements, and also push for a formal UN condemnation of the attack through the General Assembly.

“Individually, they will also petition the White House … given that the Israeli strike poses a threat to all Gulf Arab states,” he added.

Within the Gulf, the UAE and Bahrain have established ties with Israel under the Abraham Accords, signed in 2020. But the US-brokered accords have recently come under strain.

The UAE has warned that Israeli annexation of the occupied West Bank would constitute a red line for the Emirates and undermine the vision of the accords. The comments came after Israel's far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich presented a plan to annex the majority of the West Bank. Israel has taken other steps in recent weeks that undermine the prospect of a Palestinian state, including its approval of the construction of E1 – an illegal settlement with thousands of homes near Jerusalem.

Mr Silliman said that comments from influential Emirati voices have made their way into political discussions in Washington. “It is interesting that the Emirati response to the threat of Israeli annexation in the West Bank was really aimed at Washington and at the Abraham Accords themselves, in which Donald Trump takes great pride from his first administration," he explained.

Expanding the Abraham Accords to include Saudi Arabia and other Arab nations has long been a foreign policy priority for Mr Trump. The kingdom, however, has repeatedly said it will not establish ties with Israel unless a Palestinian state is created and the war in Gaza comes to an end.